Jeff Berardelli

@Jimgardner706 Suppressed Atlantic season prob

@WeatherProf What’s likely impact on ‘26-‘27 hurricane seasons?

2027 will almost certainly be the warmest year on record for Earth - by a long shot - and perhaps even 2026 may reach a record too. That’s due to the big boost of heat released from El Niño, on top of the long term warming. This happens as excess heat stored deep in the west tropical Pacific moves east and towards the ocean surface. When it reaches the surface the extra energy sparks thunderstorms and powers a strong subtropical jetstream. That combination releases tons of heat into the air and powers extreme weather all around the planet. As a result, the planet’s surface temperature will warm up significantly, pushing us past (probably far past) the record set in 2024. Worth noting that the planet’s warmest 10 years on record are indeed the last 10 years. And that the Earth is likely warmer now than it’s been in at least 120,000 years. #elnino #heatwave #extremeweather #science #stem

@Brady_Wx At AMS a company called WindBorne showed even better (slightly) track results than Google DeepMind.

I wonder why they only evaluated models that are built to converge to a mean outcome. This is akin to evaluating an ensemble *mean* against a deterministic physics-based model on extrema. Each AI-based model they evaluated has outputs that should be treated like an ensemble mean. A more apt comparison would be to compare a deterministic physics-based model to a single member of a model built to produce realistic distributions (which would include extrema), such as WeatherNext2, AIFS-Ens, and GenCast. WeatherNext2 crushed all other models (AI and physics models) on tropical cyclone track *and intensity* in 2025.

Super interesting and it makes sense. AI models have problems predicting extremes outside of their training /pattern recognition of past events and of course as the Earth heats, extremes get more extreme… “…we show that for record-breaking weather extremes, the physics-based numerical model High RESolution forecast (HRES) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts still consistently outperforms state-of-the-art AI models GraphCast, GraphCast operational, Pangu-Weather, Pangu-Weather operational, and Fuxi. We demonstrate that forecast errors in AI models are consistently larger for record-breaking heat, cold, and wind than in HRES across nearly all lead times. We further find that the examined AI models tend to underestimate both the frequency and intensity of record-breaking events, and they underpredict hot records and overestimate cold records with growing errors for larger record exceedance. Our findings underscore the current limitations of AI weather models in extrapolating beyond their training domain and in forecasting the potentially most impactful record-breaking weather events that are particularly frequent in a rapidly warming climate.” Link in thread…

@PeteNBCBoston For the next 3 weeks :)

@WeatherProf For now…🥹

@mikesara444 That’s a significant part of the recent warming. I’ve talked about it a bunch. Just not in every post.

@WeatherProf Dude, how could you not mention the loss of aerosol masking from container ships, and airplane contrails ?

Shakira is breaking the internet today…

@hole_ghost @Kalshi Hansen says he thinks so

@WeatherProf Currently a 30% chance of 2026 being hottest in the NASA record, @Kalshi kalshi.com/markets/kxgtem…

@25_cycle Perhaps, but Hansen thinks we will make it. And I’m no Hansen, so we will see

@WeatherProf Going to be tough for 2026... Starting with an almost 0.2°C deficit for the first 4 months.

Lots a lot of warming!

The question I keep getting is… But how about rainy season?? Turns out there is NOT a big relationship between developing El Niños and summer rains in Florida. It does tend to be drier along the Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida panhandle. For the FL peninsula though the impact seems to be negligible. What you are looking at is rainfall averaged across the last 5 strong El Niños. The white shade means not much difference from normal. The yellow/ red means drier. The blue means wetter summer weather. One thing I’d add: it’s probably slightly less likely that an area gets hit by a tropical storm, so in that respect it would make sense that El Niño summers would lean drier in the Southeast. In any blue areas the impact seems very small, so just a minor boost in rain. With all this said, the Southeast will see elevated rain in late fall and winter, making up for lost time.

@ProfessorSeanC I don’t think the Twitter whipper snappers get it

@WeatherProf It's a humdinger and it's moving lickety split.

A heat humdinger! Besides model agreement about the upcoming El Nino being strong or "super" - another clue is observing it as it takes shape in real time. Watch from late Feb to now as the subsurface heat - with anomalies in the +8C range now - roll across the Equatorial Pacific eastward and upward - along the 20C isotherm, a proxy for the thermocline (sharp boundary between cold water below and warm water above). That heat will soon emerge on the surface in the central-east Pacific boosting the El Nino development. On a side note: I feel the word "humdinger" is underappreciated and underutilized. Thanks @cyclonicwx for the cool GFX!

Link: science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…

@todhale Im also not a PDO expert... @webberweather may be able to shed some light.

@WeatherProf Per AMS, 1850s to 1890s was a positive PDO. I'm no PDO expert (sounds like 'pedo'-yikes😬), the lit says they can increase a Nino so whats coming during a relatively strong neg PDO is exceptional, I would think.

The strongest El Niño in 150 years? That’s not hype, it’s the actual median forecast right now for the developing event later this year. It could rival — or even surpass — the legendary 1877 El Niño, the strongest on record, which was linked to widespread drought, monsoon failure, and global food crises in parts of Asia, Africa, and South America. But what does that mean today? It means a tremendous amount of excess ocean heat being released into the atmosphere - energy that can rearrange weather patterns around the world. That typically leads to: 🌧️ Increased flood risk in some regions 🔥 More intense/ prolonged heatwaves, drought and fires 🌪️ A shift in severe storm tracks 🌀 And often a suppressed Atlantic hurricane season, but boosted in the East Pacific. Since it’s so huge, when the Pacific talks, the atmosphere listens! But this isn’t 1877… forecasting, infrastructure, and global awareness are far better today. We’ll be better prepared. Now transparency on the science: the 1877 3-month Nino 3.4 ocean temp anomaly maxed out at +2.7°C. The latest median forecast for all ensembles in late 2026 is +2.75°C in the Nino 3.4 region. So, it may be stronger. Here’s the caveat: that region is now approx .75 - 1°C warmer than it was in 1855, so some of the heat building up there is on top of a baseline which is already warmer today. So in absolutes… this will probably rival 1877, but relatively speaking due to global warming, the event will likely fall short and thus its global impacts may not rise to that level. That’s why we now have the RONI (index) which accounts for our new warmed World. (Pictured here is the October NMME with a region of +3-4°C over the East Tropical Pacific) Will certainly be interesting to watch from a scientific perspective.

@drsircus @cyclonicwx This is a natural thing earth does every few years. No porn. Normal part of the climate system.

@WeatherProf @cyclonicwx Jeff good to see your climate porn yet again. What is your story, just wanting to create fear as if there is not enough of that already.

I know it’s tough for folks to orient themselves to subsurface plots, so let’s try this visual, using @cyclonicwx map in the preceding post. A huge mass of underwater heat is moving across the Pacific right now. Take a close look... It’s a cross section of the Tropical Pacific. Those red colors are real temperature anomalies - departures from normal - up to ~15° F above normal! That subsurface heat is marching east across the basin from west to east, and at the same time rising towards the surface. When this heat surfaces, El Niño development gets a major boost! This is how the deep western tropical Pacific stores heat, then releases it into the atmosphere every few years, supercharging global weather. This El Niño will likely be one of the strongest ever measured, and maybe even the strongest in 150 years. As a result, late 2026 into 2027 will be the warmest Earth has ever been since record keeping, and very likely in the last 120,000 years. That’s because this El Niño boost is on top of around 2-3°F of excess climate heating over the past century. It’s steroids for the climate system! But it’s not all bad… actually it likely means a suppressed Atlantic hurricane season. H/T to Alex Boreham (@cyclonicwx) for the underlying data vis! #ElNino #science #STEMEducation

3:17pm: Severe storms over Pinellas about to cross Tampa Bay towards MacDill, Gibsonton, Ruskin/ Apollo Beach, Sun City Center.

3:08 pm 🌪️ Heads up. Severe storm that has the potential to produce a tornado over Pinellas Co near Treasure Island, Madeira Beach, to South Pasadena and St Pete Beach… heading towards Seminole, Kenneth City and St Pete. 🌪️

2:45 pm: Severe weather moving through Pinellas heading for Hillsborough now! Gusts 💨 to 60 mph possible. Frequent lightning ⚡️ Manatee and Polk counties storms will arrive in 1-2 hours.

Florida feeling summer! Heat Index 102 in Broward and Miami Dade

Breaking: Tornado Watch issued for Central Florida and parts of North FL including Tampa Bay I-4 to Orlando up to Gainesville. Isolated #tornado threat through early evening. #florida