*Zen Jay, Options trading, $BTC, CFA,FRM🔥🔥🚢 🐍

Risk Management 101 for option traders #OptionsTrading

@JesseCohenInv *modest lower* why you use extreme language ?

Futures open sharply lower. Tomorrow is looking like a bloodbath on Wall Street.

@smartertrader Morning

And the dump as futures open. What time Does Trump come to pump it

@AFpost Goyim cheaper

Channel 12 reports that if the US launches a ground operation in Iran, Israeli troops will not take part in the combat. Follow: @AFpost

@AlaliQasem Clearly add six months more to timeline if this Iran war lasts for few more weeks.

Everyone’s talking about the 2026 IPO boom. Nobody’s talking about the liquidity problem. SpaceX + OpenAI + Anthropic = ~$3T in market cap. At a standard 15% float? That’s $450B needed from public markets in ONE quarter. The entire US IPO market raised $469B over the past DECADE. They’ll float 3–8% max. Tiny supply. Massive demand. You do the math. 📈

$vxx $vxz eventually these vol ETFs will be short

$EWG $FXI $INDH $EWJ

$DBA $FCG $OIH $USO $AMLP $CRAK

@mb_ghalibaf Wow, you should start charging for these insights

Heads-up: Pre-market so-called “news” or “Truth” is often just a setup for profit-taking. Basically, it’s a reverse indicator. Do the opposite: If they pump it, short it. If they dump it, go long. See something tomorrow? You know the drill.

Seems like we will have to follow this account now.

@DanielTNiles @DanielTNiles any thoughts on you $BA thesis?

Last wk S&P/Nas/Mag7 -2.1%/-3.2%/-4.9% w/ minimal progress on Iran. Tech was under pressure: 1) Anthropic’s Mythos helped drive $IGV -7%, & 2) $GOOGL memory algorithm drove a selloff in semis led by memory $MU/$SNDK -16%/-13%, 3) $Meta & $GOOGL -11%/-9% on court rulings. Brent closed at a new high on Friday of $113 vs the prior closing high of $112 last Friday. The longer oil stays at higher levels, the more risk there is that Central Banks start to raise rates. Most only have an inflation mandate vs the Fed with also an unemployment mandate. While the US Fed Funds rate is at 3.5-3.75%, the ECB in only at 2.0%, and BOJ is at 0.75% and both seem to have a hiking bias at this point. With 2yr treasury yields in the US at 3.9%, up over 50bps since the end of February, a hike is also implied in the US. Bond yields were up last week between 1-6 bps across the curve between 2-30yr tenors. One surprising bright spot was the R2K finished the week +0.5%. But this also ties with its greater exposure outside of the technology sector. I have been recommending that, U need to get MESI (Utilities, Materials, Energy, Staples, Industrials) in the current environment. Four of the five S&P500 subgroups above were up last week and on average returned 2.7%. They are now up 13% on average YTD (and all are up individually as well) versus the S&P decline of 7%. Even prior to the Iran war, they were up 17% YTD vs flattish for the S&P. These sectors are asset heavy and have the least risk of being disintermediated by AI and in many cases are helped by increased efficiency. As I have written for the past couple of weeks, “It takes one to start a war but two to end it. Iran does not seem to want that.” The bid ask spread on the Strait of Hormuz is very wide right now with the US wanting a “Free Maritime Zone” under international oversight while Iran wants sovereignty over the Strait with the right to transition it into a defacto toll booth. Iranian strikes on aluminum plants in Bahrain and the UAE over the weekend plus the Houthis entering the war on the side of Iran portend potentially another rough start to the week. With more US ground troops getting moved to the region, boots on the ground cannot be ruled out if the current April 6th deadline fails. Two new ideas after the events of last week are $META and $INTC. Intel- Since late 2022 when ChatGPT was launched, CPUs have given way in importance to GPUs in the move to accelerated computing from general purpose computing. Recently, the stock declined 17% the next day in reaction to yet another disappointing earnings result. Then last week, aggressive forecasts given by $ARM during their analyst day points to increasing competition in the future for current micro-processor vendors. But the tide may be turning. On January 30th, the final rebrand to OpenClaw occurred with it reaching 100K stars on Github in sixty days which was faster than anything before it. Agentic AI, as captured in the public’s interest in OpenClaw, due to the greater need for orchestration improves the amount of server CPUs per Gigawatt of infrastructure versus AI training and Chat-based inference. There could be 2-4x more CPUs per GigaWatt needed for agentic AI. Server CPUs could become an emerging bottleneck in 2026. This should bridge the gap until Intel signs a new meaningful advanced packaging customer later this year and foundry customers by early next year. The war in Iran once again brings to the forefront the importance of domestic supply whether it is oil today or advanced semiconductor chips in the future. META- Their stock had the best next day response (+10%) to earnings results of all of the megacaps in CQ4. They demonstrated solid ROI with higher AI capex being matched with higher revenue and profits. But since results were reported, the development of their latest LLM does not seem to be going well despite the high capex. In addition, increasing pressure on the consumer from higher oil prices for longer would affect advertising revenues. Finally, the court cases against them last week are not good but teen users are below 10% of their revenues. The 11% decline in the stock last week has the stock down 34% from its 52 week high, making this an attractive entry point. The stock trades at just a 16x PE vs the S&P at 20x for CY26. The upcoming World Cup event and mid-term elections in the US should provide a bit of help later this year. Ultimately, as shown in late 2022 with their Metaverse investments, if the stock declines enough, I think capex could be cut back, especially on their non-AI investments. Best wishes for your investing in the week ahead.

@chamath @chintanzalani @yrechtman Chamath is 1 and 2 (eliminating the obvious “No”).

@chintanzalani @yrechtman I’m two of those.

The only 4 jobs that will remain at tech companies. Credits: @yrechtman

@TJTheWheelDeal Well cooked. Good thing is cooking is going for a while know so receipe should be ready soon.

$BTC didn’t pump this weekend. How cooked are we going into the week?

Things that still need to be figured out -Is this decade like 1970, where inflation keeps on reappearing and someone like Volcker emerges. Most likely not. -But there are lot of once in a generation challenge that will shape the investors mindset

In 1972, investors paid an average of 42x earnings for stocks in the "Nifty Fifty" which included the leading companies of the era such as Polaroid, Avon, and Xerox. They called them "one-decision" stocks. Unique businesses. Impervious to economic cycles. Worth any price. By 1974, they'd fallen an average of 60%. Most of that happened in just 18 months. It took the average Nifty Fifty stock 10 years to recover to its prior high. The lesson wasn't that those were bad businesses. It was that the price you pay is equally critical — if not more so — than the quality of what you buy. Today, investors are paying: 47x earnings for Costco 42x for Walmart 42x for GE Aerospace 38x for Cintas Credit to original Author from LinkedIn

@HodlMagoo @PamBondi @PamBondi jinxed this bull run

So now the DOW isn’t over 50,000 can we get @PamBondi to actually answer some questions about the Epstein files?

@ramahluwalia Tough and very relevant problem to solve. Millennial and Gen-Z have very low trust in current system.

@ZenJayCfa Been thinking about that a lot. The whole concept of Benchmarked portfolios is a type of sloppy thinking, isn't it? If you see a train wreck coming, why not get off the train

CATERPILLAR So many Industrial stocks are in bubbles that are unravelling. Caterpillar is an example. It has a .25% free cashflow yield. People own it for pure momentum reasons. We are short $CAT but I could find you examples of plenty of other industrials that are over-priced. Note: These names were extended *before* the Iran conflict...

$HOOD will most likely revisit $40 I know this will offend a number of $HOOD fanatics on x

@yacineMTB Meaning??

what america is to japan is what india is to america