Climate Observer

@JeromeFosterII At what level? The jet stream and even 500mb are aloft. Climate models imagine the temperature gradient INCREASING at the altitudes. No real evidence of change. Francis thought there was. But Barnes corrected this because Francis used MONTHLY data, not daily.

The rapidly warming Arctic is reshaping our atmosphere by weakening the temperature gradient. This change allowing polar air to spill farther south & produce intense cold outbreaks even as global average temperatures continue to rise.

@_adamdoug @chiproytx It does seem islam is more pernicious. No law above god's law means no constitution Jihad until everyone is converted is totalitarian. Death to apostates is not freedom of religion. Dimmitude is incompatible with equal rights. Blasphemy is incompatible w/freedom of speech.

@chiproytx do you feel the same about Christian fundamentalists?

There will be no parallel legal systems in Texas hiding behind the First Amendment. Sharia Law is incompatible with Western Civilization and has no place in this country.

@CoffeeBlackMD If the theory is wrong, it's been a huge waste. That oxLDL stops getting taken up by LDL-r & starts getting taken up by LOX-r when oxidized is a tell. Also, this chart Krause uses citing Hoogeveen, LDL not predictive, but small dense (aka oxidized) LDL IS predictive.

Why do we fight so much about cholesterol? And treating it? It’s a serious question. Do some of you really think statins are a Hitler level population attack vector?

@davykevinp Blood pressure (Figure 6&7) is one of the NHANES criteria of metabolic health. Insulin, because it is not typically measured, is not one of the criteria, but it could be. These are correlations, not causation, but definitely bear further inspection.

Can he just grift in his own lane?

@JordanEVGuy We’re not supposed to believe anyone but test evidence for ourselves. True, we don’t make the measurements, but we still place observations over predictions that have no observations upon which to falsify or verify.

We’re supposed to believe a radical 1% over 99% of actual practicing climate scientists? Not just someone who adds herself to a list because she “has a degree”. My degree is in Sport, but I haven’t worked in that field for over 10 years. It might look impressive at first glance, but not really. Most on that list aren’t even climate scientists, with some of them being dead. Independent reviews suggest just 1–3% have relevant fields. The overwhelming majority of actual climate scientists, around 99% based on Google Scholar data are very clear that climate change is real.

@siimland Women's Health Study finds Lp(a) is indeed a CHD risk factor, but in perspective, comparatively very small compared with: obesity, smoking, diabetes, metabolic syndrome, low HDL, high triglycerides. 'metabolic syndrome' includes most of the above. pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC78…

Lp(a) is the strongest genetically determined atherogenic lipoprotein and an independent risk factor for heart disease Lp(a) levels can vary 1000-fold between people, ranging from close to 0 to 1,000 mg/dL You should test Lp(a) at least once to see where you're at Full video: youtu.be/qXipW4b22yc Graph: PMID: 37754581

@TheGlobalWarmer This is erroneous. Orbital changes don't change global annual mean incoming radiation very much at all. What they do change is SEASONAL irradiance @ 65N. Less sunny summers leads to ice accumulation. Glaciations change temperature, temperature isn't what changes glaciations.

Climate deniers keep posting ice-age graphs as if they weaken the case for CO2. They do the opposite. If tiny orbital changes can help flip the planet when amplified by feedbacks, that’s evidence of a high-gain climate system — not a low-sensitivity one. CO2 is part of the amplifier stack.

@MrWinMarshall With the additional irony that islam specifically opposes fredom of any religion other than islam. Tolerating the intolerant leads to intolerance?

“British values” very much meant singling out Islam, until very recently

Ways that islamic values are incompatible with western values: * Western civil law versus god's law * Western constitutions versus quran * Separation of church & state versus total islam * Freedom of speech & religion vs submission to islam * Western equal rights versus dimmitude (or death) * Western free market trust versus deceit (takiyah) * Islamic requirement for offensive jihad * Islamic totalitarian division of umma & kafir * Western nation-states versus islamic totalitarian division of 'land of islam' versus 'land of war' * Islamic polygamy versus monogamy * Islamic incest of cousin marriage

There should be no right not to be offended, and no categories deemed so sacred that they receive special exemption from the free speech rule

@gjcats @ChrisGloninger @LLBiggers What specific outcomes cause you anxiety? How would you test these ideas? If there are ideas, which sound plausible, but are not supported by observations, would you dispense with those ideas?

@climateobs @ChrisGloninger @LLBiggers I worry about climate change. I leave it to others to worry about their own life styles (including president voting - althoug I do worry about the result of their choices).

The "more people die from cold" argument. Classic. Let's do this. Yes, cold kills more people than heat - currently. That's the entire point of the study you're mocking. The ratio is shifting. Fast. Here's what the research actually shows: as the planet warms, cold deaths decline modestly while heat deaths spike dramatically, and the net result is more total deaths, not fewer. A 2021 Lancet study across 43 countries found that for every cold death avoided by warming, nearly two heat deaths are added. The math doesn't work in your favor. But let's talk about what the Washington Post study actually says, since you clearly didn't read it. It's about physical inactivity, people retreating indoors during extreme heat events, reducing exercise, increasing cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and mental health crises. That's not gloom. That's epidemiology. Also, "more people die from cold" globally is true largely because of poverty, inadequate housing, and fuel insecurity in developing nations. Climate change is making all three worse, not better. The people dying from cold today aren't dying because it's too cold. They're dying because they can't afford to stay warm. Want to help them? Stop blocking the clean energy transition that would lower their energy bills. Gloom is pretending a shifting death toll is good news because you misread the direction of travel.

@gjcats @ChrisGloninger @LLBiggers "Non-optimal temperatures...leading risk factors of mortality worldwide." No. US deaths from extreme temps are irrelevant compared with other causes, INCLUDING SELF-INDUCED. You wanna worry? Worry about your lifestyle first. cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhsr… dx.doi.org/10.15620/cdc:1…

@ChrisGloninger In fact, @LLBiggers is stupidly wrong. Are there more cold deaths than heat deaths? - The Lancet Planetary Health share.google/EtsHgZJWv3fHzh…

@ChrisGloninger "The ratio is shifting. Fast." I'd agree. Fewer cold deaths will shift the ratio, and that's a good thing. USHCN: significant trend of increasing 'coldest night of the year' temperatures. USHCN: no significant trend of 'hottest day of the year' temperatures.

@RogerPielkeJr @ClimateFramo Did it not begin with: P=n*p ??? P = Production, n=population, p=productivity. Unlimited population growth has never been sustainable, but biting that Ehrlich was not just wrong, but declining population is our worst threat going forward?

The original framing of IPAT was that P, A & T were each ultimately negative (undesirable) factors to be as limited as much as possible so as to minimize I We could reframe IPAT as FPAT Where F = flourishing IPCC 1990 was very much IPAT and elements still are but there is hope still for the FPATs!

The first IPCC report reflected that generation's legacy concerns about overpopulation, with climate change often equated with concerns about global population

Historical Context: 1982: First documented U.S. E. coli outbreak linked to ground beef (E. coli O157:H7). 1993: Jack in the Box outbreak caused over 700 illnesses and 4 deaths, leading to stricter food safety regulations. 2006: Contaminated spinach led to 183 cases, 100+ hospitalizations, and 1 death. 2018: Romaine lettuce outbreak caused 210 infections and 5 deaths. 2022: Wendy’s outbreak resulted in 97 illnesses, 52 hospitalizations, and 13 HUS cases. 2024: Multiple outbreaks linked to McDonald’s Quarter Pounder burgers (slivered onions), organic carrots (Trader Joe’s, Whole Foods), and water contamination in Lake Anna, Virginia.

Nobody could've predicted this. (Note: EVERYONE WITH A BRAIN COULD'VE PREDICTED THIS.)

@PaulRoundy1 @cremieuxrecueil "dose-harm relationship" Yeah, after mulling, most health factors exhibit a U-curve. At low levels, HNE from 'seed oils' triggers the hormetic effect for signaling clean up. Some low level of glyphosate may also be better than zero. But knowing that curve requires testing.

@climateobs @cremieuxrecueil There isn't any need for RCTs, as there's no evidence of any kind of harm at the concentrations to which we are exposed. There IS a dose-harm relationship known from glyphosate exposure, but you'd have to eat literally thousands of pounds of food in a day to achieve it.

I'm curious what individual health variables glyphosate is even associated with, so here's a thread🧵 Cancer? Not even slightly.

"Ice Sheets" There IS a statistically significant trend of decreasing ice mass over Greenland as modeled by PROMICE. Part of that trend is from decreasing SURFACE mass balance and part from increased discharge of ice. There are important contexts. 1. The surface mass balance remains positive. That is, New snow and ice continues to grow thicker on the surface of Greenland. This is demonstrated by the 'Glacier Girl' WWII aircraft which were uncovered from 80 to 90 meters of snow. 2. Surface accumulation rates have been above trend for most of the past decade. 3. LOW altitude glaciers on Greenland ( around the periphery ) disappeared during the Holocene Climatic Optimum, but HIGH altitude glaciation did NOT. In fact, at Greenland Summit, snow accumulation INCREASED with increasing temperature.

Happy to answer both of you at once. Jacques: "We have yet to find anything that got worse." Here's your list: Coral reefs - ocean acidification has bleached 50%+ of the Great Barrier Reef. Twice in two years. Sea level - 20+ cm since 1900, accelerating. Hundreds of millions of people live in the impact zone. Wildfire - global burned area and intensity trending up. The 2023 Canada fires alone released more carbon than Germany emits annually. Hurricanes - rapid intensification events increasing as ocean heat content rises. Ice sheets - Greenland and West Antarctica losing mass at accelerating rates. This isn't a model. It's a measurement. BJ: "0.01% change." CO₂ is now 422 ppm, a 50% increase over pre-industrial levels, the highest in 3 million years. Arsenic is fatal at 0.00013% of your body weight. Concentration alone doesn't determine impact. Physics does. The "world is greener" talking point is real but incomplete... higher CO₂ also reduces nutritional quality in crops and the greening is partially scrubland, not productive agriculture. Both of you are describing a patient gaining weight and calling it health because the scale went up. More isn't always better. Context is everything. That's literally what science is.

Wrong! "Hurricanes" There is no significant trend in the number of global tropical cyclones that reach hurricane strength. There is no significant trend in the number of global tropical cyclones that reach MAJOR hurricane strength. There is no significant trend in the global Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of tropical cyclones. There is no significant trend in the strength of hurricanes which make landfall on the United States. tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index… aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All…

@ChrisGloninger Wrong! "Wildfire" NASA NEO indicates a significant DECREASE of fire. US National Interagency Fire Center indicates a significant DECREASE of fire number. US NIFC indicates no trend of fire area. neo.gsfc.nasa.gov/view.php?datas… ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitor…

@ChrisGloninger 'Sea level' Sea level IS rising. This rise: 1. is not very fast ( ~3mm per year ) 2. is not much different than the rise that occurred before most recent warming. That is, it has been relatively constant. 3. is partially ( ~1mm per year )due to well water extraction

Wrong! "Coral reefs" Local -temperature- fluctuations tend to coincide with local -sea level- fluctuations ( especially with ENSO ). When sea level is to low (or too high! ), coral die. According to AIMS surveys, there is no significant trend of percent of live coral in the Great Barrier Reef. The idea that 'acidification' is a long term harm is to ignore the fact that coral have been around for hundreds of millions of years coincident with much higher CO2 levels of the past. Coral is not a poster child of climate change.