connell83

It’s one thing to see a graph saying, “12 million illegal migrants entered Europe since 2008.” It’s another thing to actually see it. Every blip in this animation represents 100 people.

🇮🇳 Factory workers in India are wearing head-mounted cameras so AI can watch exactly how humans do physical work. Every hand movement, every adjustment, every shortcut. The workers are training their own replacements in real time, on the job, getting paid to do it. The most honest description of this is also the most uncomfortable one. Source: longliveai on IG

I want to talk about the scale of what’s coming for the UK over the next three months. Because I don’t think many people have joined the dots yet. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed for over five weeks. Before this war, 135 ships passed through it every day. Now it’s 5 to 7. Over 600 vessels are still stranded. Iran has mined the strait, is charging tolls, and controlling who passes. The CEO of Abu Dhabi’s national oil company said it this week: “The Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled. That is coercion.” Two thirds of Gulf crude has no alternative route. 14 million barrels a day behind a 21-mile chokepoint. Energy bills are forecast to jump 20% in July. From £1,641 to nearly £2,000. The second major energy shock in four years. Petrol up over 15%. Diesel up nearly 30%. Wholesale gas rose 75% in under four weeks. Food inflation could hit 8% by June and 9% by December. Academics advising DEFRA say it could reach 12%. UK food prices are already 38% higher than before Covid. We’re only 62% self-sufficient in food. We import 60% of our nitrogen fertiliser. Red diesel for farming has surged 60%. Average arable farm income has fallen to £17,000, the lowest in over 20 years. Yesterday, China announced it’s halting all sulphuric acid exports from May. Sulphuric acid is essential for phosphate fertilisers, copper mining, oil refining, and battery manufacturing. A third of the world’s sulphur was already blocked by the Hormuz closure. Now the world’s largest exporter has pulled the other lever at the same time. The fertiliser crisis just got significantly worse, heading straight into planting season. Before the war, markets expected rate cuts. Now they’ve priced in two rate rises. Over 1,500 mortgage products have been pulled. Two year fixes have jumped from 4.8% to 5.5%. Nearly £1,000 a year extra on a £200k mortgage. Gone in weeks. Flights are next. A quarter of UK jet fuel comes from Kuwait, behind the strait. In early April, major carriers said they had five to six weeks of reserves. That clock is running. Ryanair’s CEO has warned 5-10% of summer flights could be cancelled. Iran’s strike on Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex, which handles 30% of the world’s helium, is estimated to take 3 to 5 years to repair. Helium is critical for semiconductors and MRI machines. That’s not a disruption. That’s structural damage. Chemical and steel manufacturers are imposing surcharges of up to 30%. Analysts are warning of permanent deindustrialisation. European gas storage was at just 30% after a harsh winter. If the strait stays restricted through summer, Europe can’t refill for next winter. In Ireland, fuel protests shut down Dublin for four days. The army was deployed. Over 100 fuel stations ran dry, with warnings of 500 by end of the week. Downing Street has held talks on the potential for mass protests here. The OECD has downgraded the UK more than any other G7 nation. Growth slashed from 1.2% to 0.7%. Inflation forecast nearly doubled to 4%, with some saying it could breach 5%. Starmer and Trump spoke this week about military options to reopen the strait. The UK is leading a 30+ nation coalition. But the ceasefire is already fracturing. Iran re-closed the strait over Israeli strikes on Lebanon. Reeves is boxed in by fiscal rules. Higher gilt yields are eating her headroom. And I haven’t heard a credible plan from anyone in Westminster. Energy. Food. Fertiliser. Aviation fuel. Mortgages. Industrial chemicals. Semiconductors. Shipping. Government borrowing. Political stability. All under stress. All compounding. This country imports 44% of its energy. Has almost no gas storage. Imports most of its food and fertiliser. Gets a quarter of its jet fuel from behind a mined strait. Every structural weakness built up over 20 years is being stress tested at once. The next three months aren’t going to be uncomfortable. They’re going to be defining

You're taking a statin. You think you're safe. I thought so too. I was a professional tennis player. Ranked #117 in the world. My cholesterol was "normal" my entire adult life. At 52, I had a heart attack. What I discovered next changed everything. 🧵

What kind of strike? A lightning strike? An employment dispute? This kind of language is how the BBC changes a war crime into an act of nature.

wealth managers putting your money in an index fund

I don’t have much desire to be so rich so I can buy a Rolex, have a Lambo or take trips to Dubai. I want to be rich so I can control my time and go to the gym at 1pm on a Monday without worrying. Sit at a Cafe with espresso and relax for an hour So I can cook meals at home with clean ingredients. Spend on my beautiful mid, family and friends without worrying about a budget. That's my idea of a rich life, not the fake consumerist idea shoved down my throat to suffer in the suburbs.

@hridoyreh It's like the days when your router was down, but you couldn't get any internet to figure out what the problem might me. Before phones had internet.

I accidentally deleted a browser. I bought a new PC today. After setup, I uninstalled Microsoft Edge. Then, I realize, I don’t have any other browser now. I can't install a browser without a browser. Please help...

@adam3us @_Adrian Or maybe it's because long term BTC holders have lost faith to the Core 30. The majority of people don't want 100kb - you are in the minority.

@_Adrian i expect someone is closing $MSTR shorts. so they push out a bit of coordinated FUD.

MANUFACTURING $MSTR PANIC The $BTC | $MSTR FUD bots and engagement farmers are clocking serious overtime today. If you think this wave of fear mongering is organic, you are being played.

@BobLoukas This last 18 months, all respect has gone. You also sold a third of your stack at 80k.

Updated my 3 nodes.

@taipancapital What if it's in plain hex code? Literally showing on any Blockchain browser. A simple copy and paste of one line of code.

@connell83 No, EVERY node operator. Legal requirement. And what if it's encrypted or hidden? How would you know?

i consider myself a bitcoin maximalist. but not a reactive ignorant one, so i'm not identifying with some of this agro nonsense. focus on bitcoin long-term prospects, defending bitcoin for future generations. and live and let live, we don't have to agree about subjective topics.

@taipancapital They wouldn't need to if the data was small enough. I'd be happy with 3kb. That's enough for layer 2's, ARK etc. 100kb is simply a massive overkill and you have to question why so much when it's not needed for anything.

@connell83 What if each node operator was legally required and responsible (in jurisdiction) to check every last bit of data being added to the blockchain against some sort of subjective set of filters, and report it, reject the block, on that basis? Good for Bitcoin decentralisation?

@taipancapital If it happens, most people will know what block it was on and what transaction.

@connell83 Well thank you. At least you have the decency to come back if that outcome arises. You spend your time looking at data on the Bitcoin blockchain? Serious question! What if the data is encrypted, or hidden? How would you ever know what it is?

@taipancapital If I'm criticizing bitcoin, why would you think it's in my interest?

@connell83 No thanks? Right, so it's up to everyone else to protect your interests. Just pointing out? Could it be said, with respect if possible, that your position is one of a very vocal parasite? Searching for a word that has fewer negative connotations than parasite! Assume no malice!

Core is forcing a change in consensus rules because they decided to make a mockery of Bitcoin’s policy standards that had been in place for many years. The Core Maintainers are bad faith actors, wittingly or unwittingly. Time for them to resign.

@taipancapital Yes sure. Without a doubt. Let's see. I trust you will run a node of it's mined into the Blockchain. A layman can literally copy the op return code into a hex converter and are the image. It's the same as opening an image on your hard drive with ms paint. No difference.

@connell83 And if there isn't a torrent of abusive material unleashed onto the Bitcoin blockchain as Core30 becomes more prevalent on the network, will you have the grace to return to these discussions and admit you maybe got the wrong idea or had the wrong assumptions? Just asking.

@taipancapital No thanks. I'm just pointing out that Bitcoin has a fundamental problem... The miners have the power, the miners will choose the most profitable node version. The most profitable node version may be the worst for the longevity of bitcoin.

@connell83 @adam3us @BitcoinBombadil So decentralise the world and write your own node software, or support a team, on whatever basis, to write it. Then run that software. Be the change you want to see.

@taipancapital Well of course I know that! That's my point. I'd prefer to run core 29 but I have to accept the BS that core 30 allows on after consensus.

@connell83 @adam3us Do you realise when you run your Knots node, unless Knots reach a very high percentage threshold of network nodes, that it will relay whatever data is contained in new blocks, regardless of what it is? Yes, that's right. You will be relaying whatever it is, like everyone else.

@adam3us @BitcoinBombadil The contributors are centralised. They're amending the code to suit the minority, the miners. Miners are only choosing v30 because it's more profitable.

@BitcoinBombadil Bitcoin is a decentralized project, you can't "fire" contributors nor should you want to, they keep Bitcoin secure and robust. There isn't agreement about perceived risk. Don't get nasty, people can be helpful in trying to find creative solutions for different views to coexist.

@AlaskanNative95 @Jethroe111 Wrong. That's only for mempool transactions. Once it's mined you have to store 100kb even if running knots.

@Jethroe111 You can limit the OP_RETURN with Bitcoin Core if you don't want to bother switching to Knots. Ask Grok how, it's easy. If you are not yet running a node, now is a good time!

OPRETURN increases the threat surface and attack vectors to Bitcoin. Full stop. Core has caused this controversy. They failed to build alignment and consensus within the community for such an drastic change. They need to fix this. And soon.