Adrian Morris

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Adrian Morris

Adrian Morris

@_Adrian

I Am Nerd/Techie Fighting $BTC FUD | Bitcoin≠Crypto | A.I. Super-User | Member: @MSTRTrueNorth | Contributor: @BitcoinForCorps | Speak It Into Existence

Beigetreten Aralık 2009
500 Folgt31.5K Follower
Adrian Morris
Adrian Morris@_Adrian·
Could $MSTR issue $STRC Series A | B someday? I'm not even sure if this is possible but I wonder...
Adrian Morris@_Adrian

In theory, this is feasible. Maybe a $STRC Series A | B where they can issue a new Series B with a staggered | declining dividend while grandfathering the original Series A at the higher rate forever. I think there is precedent where Banks and REITs have done this. @Strategy already has multiple preferred offerings, so layering another one should be straightforward. This would be a long way away since they just launched $STRC in 25'. But would fit the $BTC financialization playbook to date.

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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
BREAKING: Gold drops below $4,700/oz and silver falls below $70/oz as rates cuts are priced out due to rising inflation and the Iran War.
The Kobeissi Letter tweet mediaThe Kobeissi Letter tweet media
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CountryGentlman
CountryGentlman@Gentlman_Gaming·
After finally watching #Transformers The Movie. I understand why kids were upset after seeing it. It's the freaking Red Wedding for 10 yr olds. After the first 30 minutes you didn't want to see your favorite character on screen for fear they would die next. Good lord.
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Adrian Morris
Adrian Morris@_Adrian·
I read this scenario wrong: Point 1, even with the recent Military escalation, still stands. Point 2 on the other hand, is having far more narrative & structural impact than I anticipated. How the market percieves & prices risk around petrochemicals might be permanently altered.
Adrian Morris@_Adrian

Expect that "Strait of Hormuz" FUD will uptick with the convos. around Iran | WWIII. 1: WWIII is rather unlikely to erupt because of this strike. 2: The majority of oil and petrochemicals shipped via The Strait of Hormuz go to Asian Markets (aka: China). Chill and remain focused.

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Adrian Morris
Adrian Morris@_Adrian·
Come on. No, I am not talking about a flaw. It's math, the lower div shrinks the numerator while vol is already near a floor (1.5%). The monthly div % reset is designed to keep price near $100 par, not to make Sharpe climb forever. That’s why the “moving parts” drive it toward equilibrium, not higher RAR. The mechanism caps it by design.
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Collin
Collin@STRchitect·
@_Adrian @Jaredrlynch @thepowerfulHRV You're describing the self-correcting mechanism, not a flaw. Lower dividend plus compressed vol equals higher Sharpe. That's the product working as designed. The moving parts move in the same direction.
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Adrian Morris
Adrian Morris@_Adrian·
Firstly, RAR isn't a constant, that's the thing. Investor sentiment and tolerance will guide what the market thinks of RAR and the $STRC Sharpe Ratio. Secondly, nothing will guarantee any level of demand. Sharpe and RAR mathematically can't hold at these levels because the issuance, dividend, volatility (and thus the calculations derived from them [RAR and Sharpe]) are a moving goalpost.
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Collin
Collin@STRchitect·
@Jaredrlynch @_Adrian @thepowerfulHRV The 5.37 Sharpe Ratio at 1.5% volatility proves it's not just the yield — it's the risk-adjusted return that no IG bond can match. Every rate hold makes the case stronger.
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Adrian Morris
Adrian Morris@_Adrian·
That's exactly it, your “if” is functionally impossible. The variable rate isn’t just "common knowledge"; it’s the mechanism that would prevent the yield from staying at 11-12% once sentiment | flows push price above par. They lower the dividend & issue shares specifically to cap it. That’s why Sharpe can’t rise or hold under your scenario.
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Jared
Jared@Jaredrlynch·
@_Adrian @thepowerfulHRV I said "if" the yield stays in a certain target to attract capital. STRC being variable is common knowledge but I appreciate the reminder.
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Adrian Morris
Adrian Morris@_Adrian·
Well yes, you kind of just skipped over everything I said. Firstly, you are still leaning on several broad and flawed assumptions that ignore how $STRC is actually engineered, it is not a fixed yield instrument. $STRC is variable rate and the dividend is re-evaluated every month. They already hiked up the div several times when we dropped below par, the opposite will also be true and if price pushes above par, they will lower the rate and | or hike up ATM issuance which caps price and vol. You cannot hold the yield fixed like you are assuming because the mechanisms are designed to push it down past a certain threshold. Sharpe can’t keep rising (or even hold) with your assumptions, or even mathematically, in any case.
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Jared
Jared@Jaredrlynch·
Adrian, if STRC's yield stays around 11-12%, the vol compresses continuously to zero (obviously never achieving zero), risk free rate stays at 3-5%, then the Sharpe Ratio will rise. This will cause portfolio managers to take a really serious look at. The other assumptions include unlimited ATM on STRC as long as MSTR common can be equitized enough to keep amplification in a safe range. Am I missing something?
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Rohan Hirani
Rohan Hirani@rohanhirani·
@HermesLux Yup, eventually maybe one of first instruments where >5 Sharpe could be sustained
Rohan Hirani tweet media
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Hermes Lux
Hermes Lux@HermesLux·
A Sharpe ratio of 5+ is absolutely insane, and $STRC is a phenomenon unmatched by any other ticker ever. Sharpe > 3 = World-class / elite (e.g., top hedge funds are thrilled with 2–3). The Mag 7 group rarely sustains this over long periods, though individual stocks like NVDA have touched or exceeded it in exceptional runs. Sharpe > 5 = Near-mythical / “god-tier”. Only fleetingly seen in standout names like NVDA during explosive growth phases; the diversified Mag 7 portfolio has never consistently operated here. A Sharpe ratio greater than 5 is extraordinary and extremely rare. It indicates the strategy is producing more than 5 units of excess return per unit of risk, which usually only occurs in highly optimized, low-correlation, or short-term trading systems. In real-world long-term investing, a sustained Sharpe >5 is unheard of.
Michael Saylor@saylor

$STRC volatility has reached an all-time low of 1.5%, driving its Sharpe Ratio to an all-time high of 5.37—setting a new standard for risk-adjusted performance.

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Adrian Morris
Adrian Morris@_Adrian·
That's not how the Sharpe Ratio works & that isn't how $STRC is designed to work. Think about it like this. $STRC is designed as a variable rate perpetual that operates like a high yield savings account that just happens to be "collateralized" by $BTC. But it's self limiting in a way. It's not a fixed yield instrument & the div. is adjusted every month to encourage trading around $100 par & strip away volatility. @saylor specifically said he would not issue shares below $100.01, and when it goes above that price they issue shares to “cap” it, further reducing volatility. If too much money starts chasing it, they also lower the yield. The ratio can’t rise in perpetuity.
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Jared
Jared@Jaredrlynch·
@_Adrian @thepowerfulHRV Stabilizes? As vol decreases (engineered to do so) the Sharpe ratio will only increase. If >5 is held for all of 2026 then we'll see trillions enter STRC beginning in 2027. 9 months left to stack!
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Adrian Morris
Adrian Morris@_Adrian·
@teostealth What specifically is over your head? Or what are you unsure about?
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Teo Vanyo Adiputra
Teo Vanyo Adiputra@teostealth·
@_Adrian This is way over my head but sounds like you really know what you're talking about
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