Dominickolas

@ZynxBTC Well competition is always good. That makes me optimistic that this could actually help lower the costs on the existing ETFs as well.

@dominickolas1 Permanent when they realise how much money they are making from it.

Morgan Stanley are the first bank to offer a Bitcoin ETF and happen to have 16,000 advisors managing $6 trillion in assets. With fees at 0.14%, this product is much cheaper than IBIT and will likely attract hundreds of billions of dollars over the next few years. ₿ullish.

@Davids_Sarcasm @AdamBLiv As long as he doesn't run as an independent, (splintering the votes) I am all for him putting his hat in the ring.

@AdamBLiv DeSantis and Rubio are far better choices.

I love the Paul family. Ron + Rand are awesome. I read End the Fed by Ron Paul as a young high school student and it blew my mind. His 2012 presidential campaign was really when I first got interested in politics and the libertarian faction of the right wing was very appealing to me at the time. I caucused for Rand Paul in 2015. I was a 19 year old kid in rural Iowa and I will never forget what that experience was like. It was me in a section of the public library with about 70 boomers. I was the youngest person there, by far. Grinnell, Iowa is very interesting because of Grinnell College... it is a farm town in the middle of nowhere with an uppity, prestigious private university with a bunch of hippie communist college students. When Bernie Sanders came to town hundreds of young people flocked to the public park to hear him speak, and yet here I was wanting to champion small government in a room full of boomers and there wasn't anybody there even remotely close to my age. I spotted one man who was young, at least on a relative basis. Probably in his late 30's. We were all given time to go up and speak the case for our candidate of choice. That gentleman proceeded to go up in front of the room and give an extremely eloquent plea for a peaceful foreign policy and major economic reform. He was a military veteran who served multiple tours in the middle east. The only other person to say a word out loud in front of everyone was me. Two people spoke up about their desire for who the GOP nominee should be. Plenty of people chatted casually from their seats, but only two of us were willing to stand up and make a case. Libertarian idealism versus mass populist gravity. College town leftism outside, aging conservative energy inside. I'll never forget what happened next. The votes were read back to everyone in the room. I don't remember the exact numbers, but around 75 votes were cast, and Trump received about 70. Rand Paul received 2. From the only 2 people who spoke up. Nobody's minds were changed. That night stuck with me because it taught me something I didn’t want to learn at 19. Principle alone does not win. Eloquence alone does not win. The people with the most coherent philosophy are often just spectators while the crowd moves toward power, force, and whoever seems capable of imposing their will. That was probably the night I started to understand that politics is much less about truth than about organized power.

@Brennan_BTC22 @_Adrian I'm curious what that screenshot will look like at the end of the day and in a month.

@_Adrian That’s because you’re retarded. Shareholders are enjoying it.

$MARA falling for the X narrative of the ATM Boogeyman and selling off their $BTC. Hate to see it.

@Jethroe111 Nice, my wish is for the love and kindness you spread to us here on X get returned to you especially by those you care about most.

Wealth and happiness. Bitcoin has already created life changing wealth for many. That trend is going to accelerate. I recently revealed that I grew up in trailer parks. I didn't hide that because I was ashamed of it. I just didn't even think about it. You know why? Because in that trailer behind me in the photo were two people who loved each other and understood what was really important. And it wasn't how many Bitcoin they had. What will wealth give you? A famous study on lottery winners showed that although their financial burdens went away, they weren't any happier in health, family, or relationships. No matter how much wealth you achieve in the future, it will not buy you one more day on this planet. It won't fix any "holes" in your soul that you just can't seem to fill. It won't repair the damage caused in relationships or the people you love. As you approach the end of your life you reflect. You remember. Often late at night, especially in a storm, I can still hear the rain falling on that metal trailer roof. And I remember those two people who lived for something beyond themselves. They weren't wealthy. But I was.

@ZynxBTC Congratulations! May you both serve each other well.

I'm pleased to announce that I'll be joining Falconedge as a Strategic Advisor. A Hedge Fund Advisory firm based in London. The firm's parent company Falcon Investment Management has just won an award for the best European Multi-Strategy Fund at the EuroHedge Awards. TradFI really are coming for your Bitcoin. To sum it up, Falconedge are an interesting profitable company that put Bitcoin on the balance sheet. They are able to generate a yield on this Bitcoin through the parent company's aforementioned fund as it has a Bitcoin share class. Perhaps a glimpse into the future of what funds look like on a Bitcoin Standard? I digress. All in all, very different from the traditional Bitcoin Treasury model with a focus on growing the operating business and thus attaining a valuation on an EBITDA basis, rather than purely on mNAV. Tesla, despite being one of the largest corporate holders of Bitcoin, is not valued on a Bitcoin NAV basis but on the strength of its underlying operating business. Ultimately, I believe the Saylor flywheel model is limited to a select few companies and thus a focus on increasing Bitcoin per share in a non-dilutive way is very important for public companies going forward. Finally, I was impressed with the CEO @roykashife who has a very impressive CV I must say. Multiple stints at some of the largest fund managers in the world. Looking forward to seeing what we can build.

@ZynxBTC They are playing a game that we can't. There's no reason to unless we get greedy in our fantasies.

Reason 769 why we Bitcoin. Absolutely zero point trying to trade in and out of your positions in this environment. The only people winning are those at the top and you're not in the club. There is nothing else to do but to sit on your high conviction plays and wait it out.

@SullyMichaelvan I'll give it to those TAO guys, they have the perfect answer to the question no one is asking but themselves. Round tripping is their model.

@dominickolas1 This is for sure gonna one shot some people

How in the actual fuck have people not learned their lesson with this garbage yet? It's like VCs are still living back in 2017 when Bitcoin was $6k and DentaCoin was gonna be the blockchain for dentists.

@stonychambers Correct me if I am wrong but I think you're missing one other factor. If MSTR ever cancels STRK they would pay you off at par value.

$STRK is now the most undervalued and versatile security in the capital stack In the filing for its new 21-21 plan, Strategy cut the STRK ATM to $2.1 billion and cut the cap on STRK shares outstanding. Basically, the old STRK ATM was moved over to $STRC. Recall that STRK was an attempt to lengthen the duration of convertible bonds. This of course did not work, because the conversion is not at a fixed price but at a fixed ratio of STRK shares to MSTR shares. In Jan 2025, the plan was to make STRK the main funding vehicle, because prior to that the converts were the main funding vehicle. Today the plan is to make STRC the main funding vehicle. In the process, STRK has been heavily discounted by the market. No one talks about it anymore and the perception seems to be that STRC's seniority is really damaging to STRK's valuation. This is just one reason why it is undervalued. The other is that STRK is now comfortably in the high yield + potential price appreciation camp. There's three ways to win with STRK: 1. $MSTR outperforms and brings STRK up by the conversion option 2. The market reprices the credit spread of the fixed rate prefs. This makes the dividend stream worth more. 3. Hold and earn the >10% tax deferred yield. Retain margin of safety. MSTR takes all the risk and the dilution. It takes all the flak when things go wrong. STRC has no price appreciation, has de-peg tail risk, and has imminent risk of future dividend cuts. Also consider that STRC's long term success means the dividend per share is guaranteed to come down. STRK is a very happy middle ground. And right now very underappreciated.

@sternpinball Hello. Good luck everybody! Especially @pandalvr38

🚨 GIVEAWAY 🚨 We are giving away our Stern 80s Polo here on X! Tag a friend below and we'll select a random winner! Head over to the Stern Store to purchase. *Winners will be contacted via DM ONLY. Please do not trust any other accounts claiming to be us.

@ZynxBTC @stackhodler Wouldn't this be the definition of a doom fest post?

@stackhodler This account used to be one of the best on here... just not been the same. Shame.

Haven't been sharing much macro / investing stuff on here since nobody wants to read bearish takes And I've been mostly bearish since late last fall. But someone asked for my current thinking so here it goes: My daughter will be born any day now. Protecting my family's capital and navigating this fourth turning has been my number one priority since my son was born two years ago. I have been laser focused on making sure baby girl and her big brother are taken care of. And that mom is blissfully unaware of the unfolding chaos. But I can only do things that are in my control. Scrolling the timeline and getting worked up about every tit-for-tat escalation is completely useless. So what have I done instead? The majority of my portfolio has been in Swiss Francs and physical gold since late last fall. I shared my bearish thinking then. It was very hard to sell. But with my family's well-being guiding my decisions, my gut told me I had to. For the first time since going all-in on Bitcoin around $5K in March 2020, BTC makes up a minority of my holdings. And I'm still in no hurry to re-deploy. I've moved my CHF into the most stable Swiss banks in existence with unlimited state guarantees. I moved my physical gold into high security non-bank safety deposit boxes, along with some physical CHF. And besides some energy-related equities and some QQQ puts... I'm being patient with my family's capital. The closest I have come to buying anything was some arable land with a fresh water source in France. But I'm not keen on tying a large chunk of capital to the fate of France. We have a private credit crisis, a global sovereign debt bubble, the worst energy crisis in history, and potential WW3 breaking out. Global yields just began breaking out in a major way last week. Equity indexes have been incredibly complacent given the circumstances. If you think you're late to react, IMO you're not. I see massive complacency. People forget that the world can actually turn into a very chaotic place. We have been living in abnormally peaceful and prosperous times for our whole lives. Everyone is conditioned to expect TACO, v-shaped recovery, etc. But I think that changes this week. Especially if we pass Trump's 48hr deadline and all parties follow through on their threats to destroy more critical infrastructure. Maybe this is peak fear. Maybe we walk back from the brink and stop the bleeding. (not that it solves the private credit or sovereign debt crises btw) But as a steward of my family's capital, wealth preservation remains a far bigger priority for me than incremental gains given the circumstances. I have long written that I expect either the Great Debasement or Great Depression 2 in the 2020s. But perhaps we get both. In my estimation, Great Depression 2 is now far more likely than it was just a few weeks ago. I.e. everyone getting poorer in real terms due to skyrocketing energy costs, people losing jobs, and people defaulting on debt en masse. The assumption that central banks can simply print us out of this crisis is a dangerous one. Sure they may print. But they cannot print oil. They cannot print jobs. They cannot print energy infrastructure. They cannot put the AI genie back in the bottle. A serious supply crunch of oil can only be dealt with by allowing demand destruction. Printing money does the opposite. Printing money into a supply crunch of oil / nat gas is basically destroying the currency on purpose. Which may very well happen. But that brings the legitimacy of the Central Banks into question, so will they deliberately destroy themselves? We ignore these constraints at our own peril. As yields start moving higher, I am braced for a deflationary "correlation to 1" moment. I have a shopping list of quality assets ready to go (including BTC) and I will deploy capital once I see how the central planners decide to react. Beyond investing, I've stocked up on a years worth of critical supplies. My home is filled to the brim with diapers and formula. I've done all I can to prepare my family. Now it's time for a long ski erg and a sauna session to make sure I'm in the best mental state possible for baby girl's arrival. The timeline is un-scrollable right now. Just a massive doom fest. Take action. Do what you can to prepare. But don't forget that the world is still beautiful. And the best things in life have nothing to do with money. Time with family, pushing yourself physically in nature, a little bit of morning sunshine on your face... If you have the ability to enjoy those things today you're already wealthier than you realize.

@AdamBLiv @NovaCipherLabs I think she means they will just do everything in a Bizzaro universe just for fun!

@NovaCipherLabs SLOP

The amount of information asymmetry with STRC/MSTR is insanely high and nobody is prepared for what is coming over the next decade. Go your favorite AI model of choice. Take the last month's issuance pace of STRC/MSTR and assume a bearish month over month growth rate. Put in a bearish Bitcoin CAGR and ask the model to maintain the same amplification ratio on the balance sheet for the next ten years by pairing MSTR/STRC issuance. Strategy is raising capital 42% more efficiently in 2026 than a record year in 2025 and we're just getting started. Bookmark this. Bitcoin is going to violently shoot over $1,000,000 per coin. Digital credit is the Bitcoin singularity and everybody is still asleep.

@ZynxBTC There are only a few doomer accounts I still follow, but I tread very carefully with them.

@dominickolas1 Yep, exactly that. I see some big doomer accounts almost trying to get people to sell their positions and time the market. Very dangerous in my opinion.

Anyone speaking with 100% certainty about the markets right now is lying. What happens next is at the sole discretion of the top brass in the US Government. That's it. Nobody else knows anything. Just 4 weeks ago we were all expecting at least 2-3 rate cuts this year and now the market is predicting none at all. You cannot discern this information from looking at a chart. I'd be especially wary of those making short-term predictions based on a geopolitical situation that can change at any second. For example, the bear and doomer traders will get destroyed if there is a cessation of hostilities in the Middle East. Markets will likely rally in such a scenario. Instead, most would do much better to focus on building positions in their high conviction plays while the market is offering a discount. For me, that is Bitcoin.

@AdamBLiv I like that as an alternate option to current MNav, planning for the future is what investment and investment decisions should be all about.

The next decade for Strategy is going to be incredible, and the company will be worth trillions of dollars. They're projected to end the year with around 1.1 million Bitcoin. Even if they take a huge hit to their acquisition pace and only add 10% more BTC to their stack each year after this year, these are the values of their Bitcoin treasury after a decade of various Bitcoin CAGRs: 20% BTC CAGR + 10% annual BTC stack growth Year 10 BTC holdings: 2.853 million BTC Year 10 BTC price: $433,421 Year 10 NAV: $1.2366 trillion Total NAV multiple: 16.06x 25% BTC CAGR + 10% annual BTC stack growth Year 10 BTC holdings: 2.853 million BTC Year 10 BTC price: $651,925 Year 10 NAV: $1.8600 trillion Total NAV multiple: 24.16x 30% BTC CAGR + 10% annual BTC stack growth Year 10 BTC holdings: 2.853 million BTC Year 10 BTC price: $964,421 Year 10 NAV: $2.7533 trillion Total NAV multiple: 35.76x They'll stack Bitcoin a lot faster than this. The long term shareholders will be rewarded immensely.

@ZynxBTC That is exactly what I was thinking all morning long. "Oh man, they're not making back to up there quickly? Oh I know what that means! Rate hike!" Look what the government takes months and months debating and deciding, Strategy can do quickly and with transparently.

Looks like the $STRC dividend rate will be increased by 25 bps to 11.75% for April. It's been a volatile week across broader markets, and while Stretch has held up well, it's now been 5 days since we last traded at par. No problem. Saylor has already made it clear that he's willing to go as high as 15% if needed.

@Z06Z07 Simple question, If you had a lot (or any) Bitcoin, why sell now when you have a constant bid?

@AdamBLiv No one gets anywhere I want to go by being normal.

@dominickolas1 You can't be the APEX PREDATOR while being a NORMAL PREDATOR.

🔥STRATEGY WILL BE THE WORLD'S MOST VALUABLE COMPANY - BY FAR🔥 Strategy bulls need to understand how insane this 10-year balance sheet model actually is. I modeled a simple cadence. We just saw two weeks of some awesome capital raising with MSTR/STRC, didn't we? So going foward, let's assume this: Every 4 weeks, Strategy raises capital at the same MSTR / STRC ratio as the last two Bitcoin buy announcements. But only for 2 weeks out of the month. The other 2 weeks are dead, zero capital raised, full cool-off, full return-to-par window. No infinite ATM fantasy. No permanent intravenous dilution drip for the spreadsheet autists to cry about. Half the month, the machine is literally OFF. Then I assume: Bitcoin grows 25% per year, STRC preferred issuance grows 5% month over month, and all proceeds go into Bitcoin. Starting point in the model - March 2026: Bitcoin NAV = $54.7B Enterprise value = $65.1B Preferred outstanding = $10.0B Debt outstanding = $8.2B At the start, pref is 15.4% of EV and debt is 12.6% of EV. That is where the bears freeze the frame and start hyperventilating into a paper bag. Now watch what happens when time passes and the engine keeps doing what it’s doing. By March 2027: Bitcoin NAV = $119.2B EV = $141.9B Pref = $34.8B Debt = $8.2B So after one year, Bitcoin NAV has more than doubled. Preferred gets bigger, yes. But debt as a share of EV gets chopped from 12.6% down to 5.8%. That is the first humiliation ritual. The liabilities did not disappear. They got outgrown. By March 2028: Bitcoin NAV = $240.2B EV = $285.9B Pref = $79.4B Debt = $8.2B Now debt is just 2.9% of EV. So the company goes from “look at all that debt!!!” to “that debt is becoming decorative.” It starts to look less like a capital structure problem and more like a historical artifact preserved in amber for future MBA students to misinterpret. By March 2029: Bitcoin NAV = $464.1B EV = $552.3B Pref = $159.4B Debt = $7.2B Now debt is just 1.3% of EV. The debt stack is basically entering hospice care at this point. By March 2030: Bitcoin NAV = $874.4B EV = $1.04T Pref = $303.2B Debt = $1.4B Debt drops to 0.13% of EV. Read that again. 0.13%. The convert stack has effectively been vaporized by scale. Not because someone performed magic, but because a growing Bitcoin asset base plus disciplined capital intake makes the fixed liabilities look microscopic. By March 2031: Bitcoin NAV = $1.62T EV = $1.93T Pref = $561.4B Debt = $0.8B Debt is now 0.04% of EV. At this point, talking about the converts as the central bear case is like warning the public that a trillion-dollar fortress may be threatened by a garden hose. By March 2032: Bitcoin NAV = $2.98T EV = $3.54T Pref = $1.03T Debt = $0.8B Debt falls to 0.02% of EV. Then by March 2033, debt is basically gone in the model, while: Bitcoin NAV = $5.42T EV = $6.45T Pref = $1.86T And here is the really important part: The preferred stack does get enormous in dollar terms. But as a percentage of EV, it does not spiral into insanity. It rises from 15.4% at the start to roughly: 24.5% in 2027 27.8% in 2028 28.9% in 2029 29.1% in 2030 29.1% in 2031 28.9% in 2032 28.8% in 2033 28.6% in 2034 28.5% in 2035 28.4% in 2036 That means the preferred layer becomes large, but it stabilizes. The model is not saying pref eats the company alive. The model is saying pref becomes a scalable capital intake layer while the Bitcoin asset base outruns it hard enough to keep the structure stable. By March 2034: Bitcoin NAV = $9.84T EV = $11.71T Pref = $3.35T By March 2035: Bitcoin NAV = $17.8T EV = $21.18T Pref = $6.04T By March 2036: Bitcoin NAV = $32.12T EV = $38.22T Pref = $10.86T Now obviously the model becomes physically absurd because BTC held would mathematically run past available supply around 2034. That matters. It means the model stops being a literal forecast and starts becoming a demonstration of system pressure. And that is even more bullish. What do you think happens to the Bitcoin price? Because the thing that breaks first is not debt. It is not preferred. It is Bitcoin scarcity. The structure survives the stress test better than the asset supply does. That is psychotic. That is bullish. That is the part the market still does not understand. Under this framework, Strategy is slowly replacing maturity risk with perpetual capital, refinancing anxiety with preferred demand, and fragile liabilities with an expanding Bitcoin fortress. Again, this is with a built-in 2-week monthly cool-off. Half the month, nothing happens. No raising. No nonstop aggression. Just a reset period. And even with that restraint, the numbers get grotesque: Bitcoin NAV: $54.7B to $32.1T Debt % of EV: 12.6% to basically 0% Pref % of EV: 15.4% to a stable high-20s range So the real story is not “wow, look how much pref they issued.” The real story is they are building a balance sheet where debt dies, preferred scales, Bitcoin compounds, and scarcity becomes the bottleneck. That is not a normal company. That is a corporate absorption machine wearing a public equity costume while half the analyst class stands outside with a clipboard trying to calculate book value like it’s still the Bush administration.