David

@anishmoonka Incredible post. Thank you.

There are stretches of Alaska tundra holding 12 million mosquitoes per acre. Twelve million. A 900-pound bear that cannot sweat has every reason to find a snow patch. That is the first of four reasons brown bears spend their summers above the tree line. Reason one is bugs. Alaska has 35 species of mosquitoes, more than any other state. Caribou and moose flee to snowfields and windy ridges to escape the swarms. Bears do the same. Cold air sitting on snow grounds the swarm. Without that escape, a summer of bites and constant swatting eats into a bear's fat reserves. Reason two is heat. A brown bear is wearing thick fur over several inches of fat, with no sweat glands underneath. The biggest male ever recorded, shot near Cold Bay in 1948, would have weighed close to 1,850 pounds at peak. Cooling options come down to panting, shade, or pressing belly-down into snow. Reason three is food. Hoary marmots are the size of a small dog, around 10 pounds or more. They live in talus, the loose piles of broken rock that build up along the side of a mountain. Arctic ground squirrels (Alaskans call them parka squirrels) live everywhere from sea level up past where the trees stop growing. Bears dig out both. On top of that, glacier lilies, mountain grasses, and late-emerging greens stay tender for weeks after the valley plants have dried up. The pull of the high country gets even stronger further south. In and around Yellowstone, grizzlies climb above 10,000 feet to eat army cutworm moths that hide in piles of mountain rock by the millions. A single bear can eat 40,000 moths in one day. That works out to roughly 20,000 calories, or about 35 Big Macs of food, all from insects the size of a thumbnail. The moths are up to 83% body fat by weight. In August 1991, researchers counted 51 different grizzlies feeding across four moth sites in a single day. Reason four is travel. A bear's home range can cover hundreds of square miles. Crossing a high ridge is often the shortest line between two valleys, and it keeps a wandering bear clear of dominant males in the lowlands. And for many of these bears, the high country is also home. A 2020 Alaska study tracked 89 brown bear dens above the tree line, all dug into steep alpine slopes where deep snow piles up to insulate them through 6 to 8 months of hibernation. The bear in the clip might just be coming home.

@Evan_ss6 Who needs new 3x ETF’s when $SOXL has been here this whole time

Many are pointing to the $DRAM 2x ETF as a top signal Far more money has been made buying new highs than any other strategy and it’s not even close This is a gift to 2x your profits. The 3x ETF is when you get nervous This is how Warren Buffett got rich

@Merridew__ And that’s just the average S&P return after one of these!!!

1999 but there’s fundamental earnings support for stocks moving the most violently (memory) and funding is coming from companies with $1Tn in aggregate EBITDA, no starting net debt and credit ratings above the U.S. Govt. To me the biggest risk is somehow OAI / xAI / Ant lose access to infinite money glitch before getting to self-funded status. But no idea what would cause that.

@erikpupohit @citrini Amen. That seems like the most likely catalyst for a hard reset. But even in that circumstance there will likely be immense investment opportunities that don’t exist in this current paradigm

@citrini Agree with you - the only coherent argument I can certainly see is no one is pricing in more efficient architectures - less compute usage, less power demand, less memory usage, less capex. As thats been the history of tech ….forever. The tech becomes more efficient.

People keep confusing a bubble with “stocks go up and get overvalued”. A bubble is when when a prevailing trend and a prevailing misconception about that trend interact reflexively, each reinforcing the other until the gap between perception and reality becomes unsustainable. A bubble is not when everyone realizes that right now every iota of AI demand eventually, at some point upstream, must move through memory OEMs. Nor is it when estimates continue rising because things are better than expected. And it’s not just when stocks trade expensive to historical valuations. The reason behind the moves in the AI infrastructure layer so far have been simply that we don’t have enough. They’ve been driven by the fundamental reality more than the perception of the future. It’s why the bulk of the most bullish parts of this cycle have been lumpy and centered around earnings season when companies uniformly come out and confirm there’s still not enough. In the bubble, the reality is driven by the market - not the other way around. Everyone keeps saying “people are gonna freak out if it’s not a bubble!”. I think that’s silly, we have a transformative new technology that needs crazy capital to fuel it coming to fruition, that has and always will result in a bubble as long as we have financial markets. But if you want to call the top in a bubble, you need a much stronger view on what the misconception is and what negative catalyst forces broad perception to align with realizing it than you do on valuation.

@HopscotchJimmy @citadel_ops @Eric_Erins Definitely. I think the city is a great place to live, but not a breathtaking place to visit. Part of the allure is diving into neighborhoods that visitors never make it to and a lifestyle that isn't exactly "tourist-worthy" but very high quality (often related to the weather)

@dvdcfrm @citadel_ops @Eric_Erins While you’re definitely right, I think many people made up their minds before they even got off the tarmac when they were disappointed they weren’t landing in the mountains lol. I’ve never seen anyone advertise denver as a mountain town so I’m not sure why outsiders think that

The 2010’s era Denver propaganda was crazy

@john83148980946 @AndyClarkW @Eric_Erins I think this is it. It's not a "world class city" even as it's surrounded by some world class nature...but it also has every amenity you'd expect from a city and incredible weather. Fused together, I think it's a pretty compelling place to live

@AndyClarkW @Eric_Erins It seems more lively than Detroit now from what I've seen, but I don't go out in Detroit much. Been visiting a cousin in Denver the past 3 years it's fun. Not Chicago level

@LeCloudSurfer @willystaley @HansonOHaver Loooooots of Michiganders in my orbit too. Love the Midwest-Colorado connection

@willystaley @HansonOHaver This is actually true. Denver was definitely “pop” territory until quite recently ~50% of my friends growing up here had families that came from Chicago alone

Denver is "the San Diego of the Midwest" — the southwestern terminus of that civilization; a good-time town for a certain kind of fella. (h/t @HansonOHaver )

@DukesDukeDukes @kilgoredatrout @HopscotchJimmy @rtm3461 @Eric_Erins And to your point, Boulder is very solid in that regard

@DukesDukeDukes @kilgoredatrout @HopscotchJimmy @rtm3461 @Eric_Erins Yeah, that's fair. Public transit access to the mountains is particularly rough as it is in most American cities. The public transit IN most of the mountain towns is pretty incredible though.

@HopscotchJimmy @citadel_ops @Eric_Erins COMPLETELY agree. I think too many people ended up here for a conference or bachelor party and only wandered around LoDo or RiNo for 48 hours before making up their minds...Also, it was founded as a dusty cowtown so it's evolution to now is very impressive from that lens

@dvdcfrm @citadel_ops @Eric_Erins It’s become popular the past few years to dump on Denver and I’m not really sure why that is. I’m not saying it’s the best city out there, but much of the criticism is just plain wrong

@kilgoredatrout @HopscotchJimmy @DukesDukeDukes @rtm3461 @Eric_Erins The proximity thing is legit though, but I also think it's fair to consider a metro-area in these silly debates

@dvdcfrm @HopscotchJimmy @DukesDukeDukes @rtm3461 @Eric_Erins I was absolutely unaware RR was managed by City of Denver 🤯 Need to talk w my city planner buddy abt that one. And don’t disagree w the statement on Mission - love that spot!

@kilgoredatrout @cas1193 @citadel_ops @Eric_Erins Very fair point

@cas1193 @citadel_ops @Eric_Erins The shitty thing is that the Five Points history of Denver is pretty much erased. Like, it’s there if you know to look for it (and are VERY deliberate in finding it), but it isn’t a major identifying factor in the current city identity.

@HopscotchJimmy @citadel_ops @Eric_Erins You're doing God's work in these threads, sir

@citadel_ops @Eric_Erins Denver’s is a less yuppie version (barely) that was born out of ski bum lifestyle. They’re cousins of each other but not quite the same. There’s also some Mexican influence, as breakfast burritos might be the most common breakfast in the area for eating on your way to activities

@HopscotchJimmy @DukesDukeDukes @rtm3461 @Eric_Erins Nailed it.

@DukesDukeDukes @rtm3461 @Eric_Erins Incredible weather, coolest music venue in the country, amazing views, kind people, unlimited outdoor activities even if you exclude the mountains. Oh and then world class mountains right next door

@kilgoredatrout @HopscotchJimmy @DukesDukeDukes @rtm3461 @Eric_Erins Well, it is literally run by the City of Denver...also, Mission Ballroom could probably qualify as a top tier indoor venue at this point.

@HopscotchJimmy @DukesDukeDukes @rtm3461 @Eric_Erins “Coolest music venue in the world” - yes, RR is that. But claiming that it is IN Denver is more of this propaganda. Boulder & Golden could claim RR is “in” their city as much as Denver lol

@rtm3461 @Eric_Erins This.

@Eric_Erins I really hate people knocking down a straw man conception of the city based on half-baked impressions they got from others to make it seem worse. Denver is great on its own merits, and anyone thinking it was like fucking aspen tucked into the mountains was always clueless.

@dakdanielsrso @Stockspy1 That's true, but to the extent of those that remain in place, I think the market would still have discounted that scenario as quite negative

@dvdcfrm @Stockspy1 Tariff fears were actually very valid. We just greatly backed away from them before it could become a true crisis.

The hard truth is closure of the Strait was the most over feared, over hyped risk that turned out to be a relative nothing burger....since COVID Show me where I'm wrong

@AmericaPapaBear Hell yeah. Never imagined he'd reincarnate like this

Tom Cruise looks like he’s turning into Norm MacDonald.