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Eppixx
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Eppixx
@eppixx
Prediction Market Trader | $10-15K Profit Challenge: $11K | Trade on Kalshi and earn $10→ https://t.co/saxlX7g8ww Alpha Disc: https://t.co/fBA1pq6BPL
North America Beigetreten Haziran 2020
837 Folgt325 Follower
@rigatohni Wonderful write up you had,
I need to put more time into research to be more confident in fv n to get more clv
Classes bogged me down
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Short research -> Profit in 3 ways:
1) Tailed @rigatohni: Trump doesn't give credit much
-> Rubio N / Hegseth N
2) My Thesis: Justify Iran War to Public
-> Improve ratings for midterm
-> Parallels to Bush n Iraq "WoMD"
-> Nuclear Y
3) Bonding (N Negotiate, others)
Rigatohni@rigatohni
🚨ALPHA: What will Trump say during his Address to the Nation? There is now close to $5 Million in Volume on this last minute mention super bowl! We could see this Address beat out the SOTU in terms of volume. I have spent the last 12 hours taking a deep dive gathering all the alpha/leaks on what trump will say tonight! so lets get into it... Format/Lenght : The address has been slotted at a max of 20 mins, I am expecting really close to 18 minutes. Topic/Speech Structure: After re-watching all of trumps scripted remarks from many trump events over the past few weeks on Iran here is what I am expecting... For anyone expecting a crazy "Announcment" like boots on the ground, a deal being made or that we are withdrawing, that is certainly not what we are getting. Trump will use this address to talk to Americans that are not super in touch with all the politics of everything. The goal from the admin is for Americans to hear progress from the leader himself instead of the "fake news" controlling the Narrative. Starting off with the normal trump Iran YAP: WHY NOW? -Iran is the lead sponsor of terror, might highlight some specific events to show why it was so needed to take them out - If we didnt use the b2s with midnight hammer they wouldve had a nuclear weapan within 2 weeks. (used on israel) - Obliterated Iran’s deadly ballistic missiles and production facilities - Annihilated their Navy - Guarantee that Iran can never obtain a nuclear weapon - Hes going to claim the regime has changed because all the leaders are knocked out. (took out khammeni and the rest) -terminated the Iran Nuclear deal -possible solemeni reference to his first term I think its possible he also touts his Peace through strength successes with his 8 wars ended NATO SEGMENT: Its also reported Trump is going to have a segment on NATO being a "paper tiger" and not helping create a safe passage through the straight of hormuz for the worlds oil flow. For those interested in the Paper Tiger strike: Trump has almost never referenced NATO without saying Paper Tiger in reference to Iran. Will it be scripted in tho? probably not. Could he mention Ukraine or Russia here? WHEN OVER AND ECONOMY Although this is totally my opinion, I think trump is going to touch on timeline and how the economy will benefit from a non nuclear Iran and when prices will come down on oil etc. Essentially Americans that dont care about foreign policy, how is this gonna help them etc. Strikes like Stock Market maybe Hottest aren't totally out of the picture, but It could be a little far fetched! HOW I AM TRADING THIS: I have taken a couple positions pre market so far that I will highlight. I will also be trading live depending on price decay. Remember if we are 3 mins into the speech and a strike that was 70 pre speech is now 50 even though the topic has not been brought up yet, there could be no reason for that decay. For your reference I rarely buy 55c+ strikes. Its just not my style. 1. Ceasefire NO (50c): This spiked a lot today after Trump's truth social post stating that Iran wanted a ceasefire. Although it may be top of mind, I really thing FV Y for this is sub 30c. This is my favorite and heaviest position I have and almost every "sharp" I talk to, feels the same way. 2. Dabbled on MN HAMMER, Solemeni, Supreme Leader Y last night at really cheap prices. Not the best prices now but I do think he hits Hammer and Supreme leader. For LOTTOS pre market I have: BHO Y at 15c. I think there is a world if the iran nuclear deal is scripted and the Telepromter says obama he just says barack hussein obama cause he is so in love with saying it. Terrorist N: My thesis here is in recent speeches his script has been using a lot more "Radical,Lunatics,Thugs,Terror" at 10:1 odds its very unlikely but ill take it all day long. It was not said in F11 or recent cabinet even when talking about Iran for nealy 30 minutes. LIVE BIDDING: Stock Market Y: This one i dont like in the 20s much but imma prob live buy it in the 10s incase he talks economic accomplishments somehow. Paper tiger maybe if its low enough pre nato section and a couple more.... Other than that, i'm not the guy that bids every strike, I find a couple 50c's I really like, like Ceasfire, bid hard and bid some EV lottos. Of course there are a ton of strikes i could say are going Y or N but not bidding them based on not wanting to over expose my risk. Can you guys comment your best lock and the thesis so I can tail yall before this starts?
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Eppixx retweetet
BIG NEWS: I’m joining the Kalshi team! My main goal is going to be growing Kalshi’s political / election markets in terms of visibility, volume, and influence, and showing the world why these markets are so important.
This means that I have given up trading on Kalshi. While I loved being a trader and loved giving away “alpha” to my followers, I can no longer do so due to Kalshi’s policies. It was a hard tradeoff for sure. From my days of interning at the White House, starting my own election prediction Youtube channel, to starting trading on Kalshi’s election markets in October 2024, politics, and specifically predicting elections has always been my passion. Since starting tweeting in October 2025, I wanted to show a new audience of why I believe in the power of election prediction markets. I’ve 20x’ed my followers since starting then, and have had a blast doing it along the way with y’all.
Now, my goal is to drive liquidity to these markets and make them a bigger part of the cultural zeitgeist and political landscape. Having very liquid, high volume political prediction markets makes our political system better. More accurate forecasts benefit traders and non-traders alike, and growth in political prediction markets translates into higher participation and interest in our political system, which is good for democracy. These markets are built on rationality and probabilistic thinking, which is desperately needed in today’s corrupted information environment. These markets can be incredibly useful for campaigns, political commentators, casual political viewers, fundraisers / bundlers, investors wanting to hedge political risk, investors wanting political exposure, small dollar campaign donors, academics, and everyone in between. Political prediction markets are for everyone. I’m really excited to be a part of the team that mainstreams these markets.
Feel free to reach out to me, if you have any ideas on how to grow Kalshi’s political / election markets! Thank you, all!
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@realTomBayes @Kalshi If you’re not making 7 figures a year by 13,
You’re NGMI
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@thegreektrader @holy_moses7 @tsybka @aenews @eppixx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@eppixx
I need to spend more time on it as Kalshi is my main, but lovin’ the apy
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I started a Discord 2–3 months ago for real Polymarket traders that are active on X.
Many big traders like @holy_moses7, @tsybka, @aenews are already in.
Only requirements to join:
• Active on X
• Publicly share your Polymarket account in the comments
• At least 6 months of active trading on Polymarket.
This isn't really an alpha group, but mostly a group to help each other grow.
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@TruebieMarkets @PressSec @PredMTrader Fr, puts my hysa to shame
Remove all of the other trades I make besides bonds… APY is insane
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@eppixx @PressSec @PredMTrader the lag between a press secretary briefing and a kalshi market update is the trade
3.3% return in hours, PMs are just fixed income with better information flow
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Why predict the future when you can bet on the past?
> @PressSec mentions EO in briefing
> @PredMTrader notices n tweets his position ❤️
> Roll Call Website updates Trump Schedule
> Retail flow eats through volume
> Profit
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
TRUMP SIGNS TWO EXECUTIVE ORDERS AIMED AT BOOSTING HOME OWNERSHIP -AP NEWS
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@PMTraderAdam @PressSec @PredMTrader Woke up being down 1k cause there was a mild dump n pump down to about 87c, haha, gave me a good panic for a minute
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@rigatohni Yerba Vista trading >
next time bring a starlink n do a live mention market 👀
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@PMTraderAdam @Clavicular0 @JexTrade @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade TLDR: Binary ruling if Gorlock n Clav stream together or not
It's a lame ruling that imo if enough vol, could be manipulated
They just have to be in the same camera shot, standing side by side
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@eppixx @Clavicular0 @JexTrade @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade hey eppixx, tbh i have no idea lol😆
partially why i bet no
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I bet $83 to win $70 that Clavicular wouldn't get frame mogged by Gorlock the Destroyer during his Mog World Order stream
This seems like some easy money
No way Clav let's himself get Jestered again by a superior being, don't embarrass yourself @Clavicular0
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@PMTraderAdam @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade might full port this cause I'm bored, n my poly port is a weird side project I neglect
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Today I bet $786 to win $124 that Trump wouldn’t stop the war in Iran by March 15th
There is literally a 0% chance this happens
Trump loves war too much
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Eppixx retweetet
1000 She is so badddddd holy! I wish we could trade on her show.
Godly Nation@GodlyNations
How do you rate CNN's Kaitlan Collins out of 10?
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@0xtarzan1999 Definitely, I need to spend more time modeling and researching but not bad for a quick qualitative trade
From R3-R5, the delta in control, and I like control more because it reduces the chance of KO / variables
- boring product for fans but indicative of fight
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