Truebie

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The $20M Trump-Xi bilateral market rule: "Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count." Polymarket's clarification: "Footage that was not broadcast live will not qualify." But those are not the same statement. The rules changed after the market opened.

Please block Polymarket. They are not real news. They are hedging bets on real world events to make them true.

This is misguided because the real issue is the clarification process. Two parties pay a bond to get a ruling from a 3rd party yet Polymarket comes in 90% of the time with a “clarification” often changing the rules & telling UMA how to vote… so actually Polymarket resolves the majority of disputes in reality by corrupting the process. The staff who issue these clarifications have developed close relationships over the years with many traders who have benefited GREATLY by betting on which way the clarification will go before they are released.

we are yet to see a prediction markets that serves the long tail markets almost every prediction platform is focused on crypto, sport and usa politics this is a gap yet to be filled…. Who’s building?

Im risking weeks of profit on this market but have very little faith in the resolution... You can read my argument in the post below, but essentially. Kalshi rules state: only strikes said after the start of round 1 count. The argument here is.. weather the bell starts the round or the ref. but... I found out that both should make this resolve no (which BEWARE. it prob wont cause Kalshi likes to resolve on something known as VIBES) The ref Mike Beltran does a "ready to fight" CLAP "Alright, Lets GO" cadence. Most Y holders claim the ref starts the fight over the bell with the CLAP, well with that claim...assuming the "GO" is the start of the fight then this "should" resolve N even off that claim. Now for the fun part... the ref before the fight says "you know the rules....on the sound of the bell come out" which is very clear that the fight starts on the bell. then there is the other arg that the fight starts when the clock starts ticking which also would make this go N. Why the price is at 90 Y? traders believe the Kalshi team will resolve based on price and vibes... which after some recent res's I totally get and am expecting the same since sometimes its easier to just ignore the technicalities and sometimes I would do the same if i were them, but it would be sad on this since we pm traders put so much effort into TRUTH SEEKING and the evidence seems very clear. my next post will most likely be me loosing weeks of profit but I want to hear y'all opinion on this because I truly think this is N and have 0 arg for Y. And ofc this is NFA. dont tail me blindly.