Truebie

a guy bet $1,218 to win $3 on polymarket and 10,000 people laughed at him but he's earning 4.5% APR on a 20-day hold meanwhile your savings account is paying you 0.4% to hold dollars in a building that closes at 5pm prediction markets are quietly becoming the weirdest fixed income instrument in finance

prediction markets friday: $22B valuation, 3 state lawsuits 1 spiritual wound 0 out of 27 mention markets hit 1 bar named after a classified briefing room $39.5M extracted by wallets nobody can identify the weekend hasn't even started

Pick a side for 2028 🗳️ Kalshi or Polymarket❔ Earn yield while you wait 🤑 ✅ Only on @Trueo_app 🔮

@0xMarchyel @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket alpha

@TruebieMarkets @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket Often

Yesterday’s New York #Polymarket #weather market was interesting. Forecasts were pointing pretty confidently to 40-41°F, while the PWS kept jumping to 42-43°F. I hedged both YES brackets. Since the market was also very uncertain, I got some great trading opportunities: I first sold my 42-43°F shares at 80c, and a few minutes later sold my 40-41°F shares at 78c per share. That ended up being a double win for me. That’s what I love about Polymarket, you don’t always have to be right or know the final outcome. If you can trade more efficiently than the market, you can still make big profits. @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket

@vonzz6 kalshi带节奏

应该可能是新的融资？

@Maximilian_evm volume will 100x from here!

Daily active users are hitting all-time highs as over 151k unique addresses trade daily. The platform is processing record volumes, reflecting a massive shift toward capital-backed information. This is what a supercycle looks like: sustainable, fundamental, and unstoppable.

cos the lawsuits are priced into the $22B kalshi already beat the CFTC. every state AG that sues and loses creates legal precedent that prediction markets aren't gambling in their jurisdiction the investors aren't raising despite the lawsuits. they're raising because of them. each one that fails becomes permanent market access for every PM platform after kalshi

Kalshi raising $1B at a $22B valuation. I like Kalshi and Polymarket a lot, but can someone explain to me why they would need $1B and why $22B isn’t grossly overvalued? This looks like a classic “we raised it because we could” round, not anything that structurally makes sense. I get the circle jerk, but sadly this won’t end well for many of these institutional investors. How do even the greatest founders not understand how important it is to price your company right and leave enough upside on the table? Price drives narrative, and I only see this going down once it’s live. Which probably means yet another company with every incentive to stay private forever.

@XenyPM @Polymarket makes sense are you finding the increase of bot activity impacting your pnl or trading behaviour?

@TruebieMarkets @Polymarket Hard to say actually. I think the main thing was sizing up, I was always decently consistent. The biggest advantage I would say I have now is that I have a small network of people I can talk to that can double check my thoughts. I think making connections is super important!

I started with $3,000 back last October on @Polymarket , and I grew it to $30,000 on February. Now, I've made over $50,000, and it's only been a month since! I'm extremely grateful for my progression, making over $50,000 in a span of less than 6 months. Next stop, $100k!

@tradefoxintern did u make this

The only Premier League Cheatsheet you need for this weekend🚨 1) Bournemouth vs Man United Moneyline: BOU 30¢ • DRAW 25¢ • MUN 47¢ United are favored but this is not a dominant road spot. Bournemouth at 30¢ is very live, which tells you the market still sees real home-upset potential. Market expects United to have the quality edge, but not control from start to finish 2) Brighton vs Liverpool Moneyline: BRI 31¢ • DRAW 27¢ • LIV 44¢ Liverpool are the stronger side on price, but Brighton remain dangerous enough to keep this from becoming a one-way market. The draw is also priced high, which fits a tense, swingy match. Market expects Liverpool to win more often than not, but with real resistance 3) Man City vs Crystal Palace Moneyline: MCI 74¢ • DRAW 22¢ • CRY 12¢ This is the strongest favorite on the slate. Palace’s 12¢ says their win path is narrow and mostly depends on chaos, finishing variance, or a stubborn defensive performance. Market expects City dominance and sustained pressure 4) Everton vs Chelsea Moneyline: EVE 28¢ • DRAW 27¢ • CHE 46¢ Chelsea are favored, but only modestly. Everton are still very live at home, and the draw is heavily priced too Market sees this as a competitive match where Chelsea’s quality gives them the edge, but not much margin for error. 5) Fulham vs Burnley Moneyline: FUL 63¢ • DRAW 23¢ • BUR 15¢ One of the clearest favorites on the board. Burnley are priced mostly as variance rather than a true threat. Market expects Fulham to control territory and create the better chances 6) Leeds vs Brentford Moneyline: LEE 39¢ • DRAW 28¢ • BRE 34¢ One of the tightest games of the day. Leeds get a small home lean, but Brentford are close enough that this is basically a volatility game Market expects a scrappy match with momentum swings and a meaningful draw chance. Quick Takeaways • Safest favorite: Man City • Other strong favorite: Fulham • Most balanced game: Leeds vs Brentford • Best marquee match: Brighton vs Liverpool • Best live dog: Bournemouth 30¢, Everton 28¢, Brighton 31¢ Trade these instantly on @tradefoxai Sports Mode - thetradefox.com/lightning/spor…

@_kate_lv need that udpate

btw this was 5 years ago

i really missed Dominican republic 🇩🇴❤️‍🔥 show me your best vacation

@k1rallik working on a thread about bots in PMs!

@TruebieMarkets bots were literally built for this type of edge

$78,000 profit trading THE WEATHER The weather. Temperature forecasts. That's it. This bot ColdMath has been silently printing money since November 2025 and almost nobody is talking about it Here's the full breakdown > Win rate: 80% > Net PnL: +$78,141 > Predictions made: 3,788 The strategy: Polymarket lists daily markets like "Will Chicago hit 54°F on March 11?" Most traders scroll past. The pricing is lazy. But weather forecasts at 1-3 days are 85-95% accurate. Public data. Free. ColdMath buys YES at 0.1¢ when forecasts say near-certain. One trade: 24,880 YES at 0.1¢ on Chicago 54°F. Cost: $24.88 → Payout: $12,398 Return: 49,733% Also buys NO at 96-99¢ on temperatures that obviously won't happen. Small margin, near-zero risk, huge volume. Check the full profile: @ColdMath?via=sales" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@ColdMath?via=… New markets every day. The edge regenerates every 24 hours. This bot farms 49,000% returns by reading a weather forecast. The alpha was on your phone the entire time.

@mahera777 @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket has to be a bot right. compounding being right 5% more often than a coin flip, 49,000 times humans would chase 90% conviction on 5 trades. no human would take 55% on 49,000 trades

This guy prints money with his own bot on Polymarket He has made over 49K predictions, generating $1.65M in total profit with a 55% win rate His trading is focused on Up/Down markets 5-min: 21,800 markets 15-min: 23,200 markets Despite a modest win rate, he prints strong profits consistently His profile: @k9Q2mX4L8A7ZP3R?via=mahera777" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@k9Q2mX4L8A7ZP… If you wish, you can connect it to copy trading below

@decenterghost the data tends to agree with you. but overpriced is only bad if you are betting against informed counterparty on an event driven market that’s likely to be none repeatable

@TruebieMarkets Dude, do you realize what one loss will lead to?

Classic steamroller trade. You are not earning carry. You are renting a seat next to a cliff Carry doesnt exist on Polymarket. No yield. No time decay income. No smooth PnL. Just binary resolution risk dressed up as safe trades What people call carry here is buying YES at 99-99.9c right before resolution Looks clean, feels like free money. It isnt. Youre not earning yield over time. Youre taking a tiny upside with a hidden cliff This is not carry. This is short volatility in disguise Now the reality This strategy is picking up pennies in front of a steamroller You stack small wins again and again. +0.1%, +0.2%, feels consistent Then one event flips -capital loss. One resolution delay hits -liquidity lock. Those are two different risks and both of them are real One mistake wipes dozens/hundreds of trades. Grind looks smooth until it suddenly isnt And it gets worse At 99% you are not trading against randoms. Youre trading against better positioning, people closer to resolution -unless you are the fastest participant at that level, which most are not If theyre selling you size there, its not charity. Its information or speed Add latency, oracle timing, last-second news -your edge disappears exactly when it matters most Scaling doesnt save you either Size up and you move the book, get worse fills, kill your own EV. At 99% your maximum upside is 1c per share. Moving the book by even half a cent destroys the entire trade Liquidity at 99% is thin for a reason. Market makers exit when asymmetric information risk outweighs the spread. The book is empty because the smart money already left Final take This isnt income. This isnt carry Its negative skew: small wins most of the time, one loss that erases everything Classic steamroller trade

@decenterghost you wouldn’t park in there for more than a week. so market depth, time left to resolution, and topic matter all factor into whether it’s a roller or a bike accident

things happening in prediction markets right now: - senator: "we suffer a spiritual wound when prediction markets transform moral questions into gambling" - @Polymarket: opens a bar called the situation room - arizona AG: "kalshi is running an illegal gambling operation" - @opinionlabsxyz: "enter the arena. we reward alpha now" - pentagon: "approve the $200B iran war budget" - fresh wallet: drops $57K on cuba invasion with zero trade history - senator blumenthal: "introducing the PM guardrails bill" - @zscdao: "scheduling our DAO meeting at the situation room bar" - poker pro: "i let claude trade for me while i sleep. up $11K" - @Kalshi CEO: "the lawsuit is baseless" - polymarket: acquires a whole company to fix UX - senator murphy: "this will cost $200 billion" - guy on CT: "$7,000 in a single day from LP rewards" this industry adds a new plot line every 45 minutes and nobody is writing the recap fast enough

The yield only exists because enough people keep buying YES on a miracle. 17% APY on Putin staying in power is a trade against collective wishful thinking. The moment those "kind degens" stop showing up, NO goes to 99c and the return compresses to nothing. The question isn't whether Putin stays. It's how long the optimism supply lasts at 13c.

Kind degens happily continue filling my limit orders, believing that some miracle can remove Putin from the post of President. But I remain a realist, and it’s hard to believe in that. During this time, I increased my position to 39k shares. A good long-term investment.

@Predictefy dats a bot bro

Hiring someone who is: - chronically online - in touch with the news - monitoring the situation - thinks in probabilities and outcomes dms are open