PredictionMarketTrader

Trump’s Wednesday address was our biggest mention market ever - over $60K on the line It also turned into our biggest win ever Full stream highlights

If my access to timely Truth Social posts is hindered, I will officially be retiring from my 1-month stint of trading oil

@aa26871223 Yeah, that is a good approach. I would not touch sports given your comfortable with politics.

@PredMTrader I’m the opposite, I’m too scared to touch sports due to the unpredictable nature of it and feel safer in politics. I’ve only made a little over 50k on Kalshi but I feel like I can get that much closer to 100 after the midterms.

Working on a Kalshi Pro terminal guide video and realized something that some of you may find valuable They include "exotics" as a market category, which means you can filter for all of the top combos by volume and quote them directly with an order book instead of having to use RFQ

@ManningSla19960 The best is when you win a 99.9% you can just post the payout image so people think u made $100k

@PredMTrader delfa. I've been quoting 17 leg parlays for months now because I love the dopamine hit and settlement email of being a winner 99.9% of the time

@BunchuBets Takes me back to the good ol prepack days

@PredMTrader That’s pretty cool. Hadn’t noticed that.

Yeah I will probably get involved since volumes should be very good. Politics isn’t my forte but hoping we get another Pratt moment with some candidates or markets where there’s just so much flow that I can still get involved. Right now I’ve been mostly centered on World Cup. I expect NFL to be a huge focus once that starts up but will sprinkle in any other big politics stuff too since don’t want to just be another sports account.

@PredMTrader Are you planning to bet on the midterms? Do you bet on politics or just mentions?

@drakenneh I need to balance sharing somewhat helpful info occasionally rather than just always shitposting

@PredMTrader Why r u giving this away

Obviously it’s inefficient to try to quote a bunch of RFQs manually instead of API but if for some reason you ever wanted to just see one combo specifically or even just get an idea of where the most flow is going could be useful

@DanPickz2 🥺

HOW BOUT THAAAAAATTT CAALL

Oh, Trump is giving a Prime Time address on election fraud? Why don’t I buy 11,000 shares of him not to say fraud and call myself sharp.

@EpsilonPM Wow wtf

The release of Kimi K3 made me over 24k on what was one of my best bets ever! I shared this in one of my groups and we collectively net over 50k. It was trading at 1c to be the best coding model at the end week but my personal fv was closer to 10-15%. Am quite grateful and it feels good to get lucky :)

@GaetenD It’s so over

@PredMTrader What if the teleprompter guy was the only reason you ever won and now he's gone?

I take back everything I said you should trust reporting 100%

You just know Trump's address is going to be ELECTRIC when you have a large unrealized loss going into it

@DustinGouker @Foster if you don’t integrate this to pp tools I’m unsubscribing

Everyone on prediction markets gonna have to subscribe to this smh.

@kobayashi2708 any time

@PredMTrader Thanks for reminding us to bond responsibly

One lesson from these Trump prime-time addresses: take all pre-speech reporting with a grain of salt. Before the Iran address, NATO was widely reported as a central talking point. Before the December address, it was Venezuela. Both strikes traded into the 90s before the speech. Neither ended up being mentioned.

@Sports__Proj I will never ask a mentions question again for risk takers pod after the ENORMOUS leak bringing up Crypto NO

@PredMTrader So my Crypto / Bitcoin yes position is still live????

There have definitely been times me and others have experienced what felt like suspicious price activity and have reported it. The piece mentioned he traded the SOTU mention, the most suspicious strike that day iirc was "Florida", which did not decay significantly for YES during the entirety of the speech only for him to hit it in the final seconds with some phrase that seemed prepared.

@PredMTrader Looking back, you ever feel like you were trading against this guy?

How it feels to make more on Trump speeches than the teleprompter operator HIMSELF

I am not on China no for the record nor am suggesting it, I just was quote tweeting the main reporting that has come out ahead of tonights address