Wolf_Derek

#Crypto I hope the end-of-month update helped you. We had a retest and rejection on total2, which resulted in strong rejections. $BTC was holding part of the position after taking profits at $70k, and now the price has collapsed to $66k We're holding the short on $ETH. AI.D is heavily compressed, the spring is about to burst. It's vital to keep the first box blank. We're getting a bit close to VaL zones everywhere, and we could see a slight general LTF rebound (I'll publish new LTF plans on $BTC tomorrow, but I've already mentioned in the previous post, and various AI coins if there's an update to be made, about the ones we're trading on, namely $RENDER $NEAR $VIRTUAL $WLD $FET $ICP). Stay tuned

We're seeing tremendous interest in the AI/photonics supply chain: $SIVE is one example, having hit above $100 today with a monstrous year-to-date return (huge congrats to @aleabitoreddit ), but I think there are several interesting ones, particularly $ALMU and $SOI; let's talk about them. $ALMU (up 21% yesterday) has a unique upstream checkpoint: it's developing a platform for integrating III-V (such as InP/GaAs) directly onto 200/300mm silicon wafers (monolithic/heterogeneous integration). This solves one of the toughest problems in Silicon Photonics and CPO: scaling lasers and PICs without relying solely on traditional InP/GaAs substrates (which have limited capacity and high costs). It's a "fab-light" alternative that could become an enabler for hyperscalers and foundries (TSMC COUPE, GlobalFoundries, Tower, etc.). Market Cap: ~$480M Recent Price: $26.21 (+21% in the June 1 session) FY2026 Revenue Guidance: Tightened to $4.2M–$4.6M (all from government R&D contracts). Cash: ~$38M, zero debt (solid for a micro-cap). 2026 Contracts: 6 new for a total of $5M (target of 3–7 achieved). These include >$4M from US agencies + NASA for quantum dot lasers and materials. Key Partnerships: Tower Semiconductor + Sumitomo Chemical for wafer production and fabrication (announced April 2026). Patents: 36 issued + pending. Pipeline: >30 companies in testing/qualification (AI datacom, quantum, defense). Pros vs. Cons: Pros: Unique technology for wafer-scale integration → technical moat. Strong government validations (NASA, Navy, DARPA, DOE, RFSUNY) + real foundry partnerships (Tower is already in the SiPh AI space). Still purely pre-commercial: tiny revenue compared to the CPO/laser TAM (tens of billions). If it gets even 1-2 commercial design wins in 2027-28, it could explode (multi-bagger potential). Fab-light model → less capex-intensive than those building their own fabs. AI + Quantum theme accelerating (the CEO clearly states that AI buildout is outpacing the photonics supply chain). Cons: Revenue still very low and declining QoQ (Q3 FY26: $1.2M). Guidance lowered due to government contract delays (shutdowns, etc.). Still pre-commercial revenue → high execution risk. Historic dilution (raised) and likely future dilution to scale. Extreme volatility (small-cap photonics): 40-60% drawdown possible. Competition from larger or private players (Quintessent, etc.). Has not yet demonstrated revenue from hyperscaler commercial customers. Trades at extremely high valuations on current revenues (P/S >80x), but typical of early-stage companies with venture-style theses. If it starts generating $20-50M+ revenue from design-win CPO/AI in 2027-28, the market cap could easily rise to $1.5-3B+ (3-6x from there). If it delays or fails to convert contracts into commercial, it could easily lose 50-70%. Aeluma is one of the few true early chokepoints left in the photonics game. Needless to say, we're not at the very beginning—we already have incredible numbers—but it has real tech that solves the real bottleneck of InP lasers: it integrates III-V directly onto 200/300mm silicon wafers in a fab-light manner. Tower + Sumitomo already onboard, NASA/DARPA/Navy paying, pipeline >30 companies in qualification. With a market cap still at $480M, it's exactly where $SIVE was when it started pushing hard—pre-ramp, technical moat, serious validations. No financial advice, just a thought. I'll also talk about $SOI in another post later.