Fraser McMillan 🌐

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Fraser McMillan 🌐

Fraser McMillan 🌐

@frasmcm

Lecturer in Scottish Electoral Politics @EdinburghPIR 🗳️🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 | Dandies 🔴⚪ | Abundance bro 🏗️

Edinburgh Beigetreten Mart 2019
4.9K Folgt1.3K Follower
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Fraser McMillan 🌐
Fraser McMillan 🌐@frasmcm·
best weekend of my life hands down this is what it fucking means ♥️🐑
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Devolved Election Projections
MRPs are much more expensive than traditional polls. Instead of useful polls the media spent their polling budget telling us that the SNP will come first (YouGov), second (MoreInCommon) or Third (JLP) in Strathkelvin & Bearsden.
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Conor Matchett@conor_matchett

Prof Ailsa Henderson says we've had half as much polling as usual for a Holyrood election I am once again *screaming* at UK pollsters to get their head out of Westminster

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night brain
night brain@_night_brain__·
It is an underconsidered failure that instead of Glasgow being a city of 2+ million people, Scots live here instead
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Fraser McMillan 🌐
@justinbowie1997 we're in a bit of a "race to the bottom" loop atm, Labour won in 24 off the back of being the least worst rather than people thinking they had improved vs SNP and same thing is likely about to happen in reverse - the ceiling just gets lower every time
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Bustin' Jowie
Bustin' Jowie@justinbowie1997·
@frasmcm Aye, when you consider both reduced turnout and the fact SNP vote will be significantly lower than 2021 anyway, it's clear there's not much enthusiasm there. Problem is, of course, there's not much enthusiasm for any of the alternatives either...
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Fraser McMillan 🌐
@justinbowie1997 an election the SNP won because they had a *good* reputation for governing, were miles ahead on "standing up for Scotland" and the Tories had just been elected at Westminster
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Conor Matchett
Conor Matchett@conor_matchett·
Here's where we are in the election cycle to 2011, an election many in Scottish Labour were saying they thought 2026 would be like (SNP/Labour roles reversed, this time around)
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Fraser McMillan 🌐
this is the essence of the Abundance thesis - those who actually want the state to be effective need to stop getting in its way this for some reason made a lot of people extremely angry
Simon French@Frencheconomics

This is interesting from @LouHaigh in the online @thetimes - general perception in financial markets is that a post local election pivot by Labour would usher more spending, more tax - and a higher UK inflation premium (already visible in the Gilt market). Yet this piece speaks to a growth-enhancing supply side reform agenda - making capital & land swifter to be deployed and lowering their cost. Words are the easy bit, of course, but I’d argue this type of pivot (arguably because of the very real political constraints in delivering it) is not in the price at present.

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Richy
Richy@R1130_·
I’ll vote for any party in May that bans Scottish folk from creating World Cup songs
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Benny Touzine
Benny Touzine@Bennytouzine·
AS LONG AS DUTCH PEOPLE SAY JUS D'ORANGE IN PLAATS VAN SINAASAPPELSAP, THE STRAIGHT OF ANTWERPEN WILL BE CLOSED!!! THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!!! BENNY T.
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Oliver Johnson
Oliver Johnson@BristOliver·
If our politicians and civil servants took a fraction of the time that they apparently devote to this kind of Oxbridge tutorial cleverdick angels-on-heads-of-pins sophistry, and instead spent it raising the productivity of this country, then we'd be richer than Singapore by now
Alex Wickham@alexwickham

BREAKING: Sources say Olly Robbins felt bound by the rules of the security vetting process NOT to tell the PM, No10 or the foreign secretary about the concerns raised about Mandelson That means it appears No10 WERE in fact unaware he had issues with his vetting And sources say in fact Mandelson DID NOT simply fail his vetting. Instead issues were raised and the FCDO security team and ultimately Robbins had to make a decision on whether to grant him DV clearance. It was their decision and there was no “overturning,” sources say As @SamCoatesSky reports via former security official Ciaran Martin, Robbins was prohibited from sharing information about what happened with anyone outside the FCDO security team Sources say the point of the vetting process is that it is extremely invasive and people who go through it must be confident they can tell the whole truth and not have highly embarrassing information about their personal lives leak or be spread around colleagues That means the circle of people allowed to know about what happens in each vetting case is very small and the information is highly privileged The decision on whether to approve Mandelson’s clearance, according to the vetting rules, is taken by a small team of FCDO security officials and ultimately Robbins, sources say Under no circumstance is Robbins or that team able to share the details of the vetting case with No10 or anyone else, sources say. Robbins felt he could not share it with any minister or private office, sources say It appears the PM and No10 were unaware of how these rules were perceived by Robbins and FCDO, and think he should have told them. Allies of Robbins think it is unfair he was sacked But crucially it appears right now that Robbins did not tell No10 and they were actually in the dark about all this until Tuesday. What an unbelievable mess

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Fraser McMillan 🌐
Fraser McMillan 🌐@frasmcm·
@AdamLovett91 @bswud elite cues also play a role here, nobody is making the effort to explain why building is the solution and all parties are opportunistically nimby when it suits them partly due to the incentives of the electoral system and the structure of local govt
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Adam Lovett
Adam Lovett@AdamLovett91·
@bswud I think this is actually wrong. British Social Attitude surveys have consistently found more support, usually a lot more, for building new local housing than opposition to it. In the survey Yglesias cites, he omits that only 20% oppose building new towns: more than 2:1 in favor.
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Ben Southwood
Ben Southwood@bswud·
This is correct. But opinions don’t come like manna from heaven. The size of the growth coalition is driven primarily by how many have a stake in growth. Our institutions are uniquely bad at sharing the proceeds of growth. One reason is enervated local government.
Matthew Yglesias@mattyglesias

Sometimes you need to blame the voters — the UK has an acute housing shortage and the authentic preference of the population seems to be to not solve it. slowboring.com/p/its-not-bad-…

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Player 348
Player 348@joeschmo269·
@frasmcm @alexmassie You start with an unprovable statement and expect to be taken seriously. You want the best for your wealthy, emotionally onanistic coterie.
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Fraser McMillan 🌐
Fraser McMillan 🌐@frasmcm·
@joeschmo269 @alexmassie well I also live here so desperately want the best for Scotland regardless of who is in charge and care a lot more about clear analysis than grinding some political axe. like Labour in 24, SNP are creating a hostage to fortune in my professional opinion. thanks for reading tho :)
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Player 348
Player 348@joeschmo269·
@frasmcm @alexmassie Fraz, that article is you hoping that people will get poorer as that is the only way they will vote for the BritUnion Uniparty.
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Matthew Zeitlin
Matthew Zeitlin@MattZeitlin·
I think the reason Geese feels like a psyop isn’t because they don’t have real fans (they do), but because their discourse weight is greater than their actual share of music fandom due to their appeal to 39 year olds and aspiring 39 year olds
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