ftrpoly

@DeepDishEnjoyer Need to farm the Trump believers in silence

grok is this real

i believe i can fly i believe i can touch the sky

@DeepDishEnjoyer Stop blowing up my spot 🫩

Troops on the ground this week or next, oil to the moon

@DeepDishEnjoyer It is beyond over

guys it's like over over

@mhdksafa This is fucking nuts

I don't think people understand the gravity of the situation as the UN is preparing for possible nuclear weapon use in Iran. This is a picture of Tehran. For you uneducated, untraveled, never-served, warhawks licking your chops at the thought of bombing it. It's not some low population desert. There are families, children, family pets. Regular working class people with dreams. You're sick to want war. Tehran is a city of nearly 10,000,000 people. Imagine nuking Washington, Berlin, Paris, London, or beyond, bombed with nuclear weapons. I gave up my diplomatic career to leak this information. I suspended my duties so as not to be part of or a witness to this crime against humanity, in an attempt to prevent a nuclear winter before it is too late. Yesterday, nearly ten million people protested “No Kings” in the United States. The possibility of the use of nuclear weapons must be taken very seriously. It's dangerous. Act now. Spread this message worldwide. Take the streets. Protest for our humanity and future. Only the people can stop it. History will remember us.

@notthreadguy Boots on the ground this week or next, oil to the moon and no amount of TACO statements is going to be able to bring it back down

lowk crazy iran is watching polymarket and longing oil on hyperliquid over the weekend to front run escalation announcements

@TMTLongShort You should get a polymarket account lol

How I frame the current Iran op: A) this is about China - it’s cheaper to demonstrate to Xi that the day after a TW invasion his economy will be choked off from energy vs losing American lives protecting the island B) there was Gulf state buy in - specifically Saudi and UAE. This included providing capital to backstop USD assets which are trumps Achilles heel C) the objective is to have control of Hormuz at the end of this - specifically veto power that doesn’t just require a parked carrier which in a conflict China can lob a thousand missiles at. You need land-based American controlled assets there permanently. Either actual Americans or proxies via Israeli or Saudi forces. D) this is not going to be Iraq or Afghanistan - there is a wide spectrum between full regime change and nation building vs small contingents of special forces taking modest strategic points on the strait and carpet bombing everything close enough to put those troops at risk E) regime change isn’t a certainty but higher likelihood than consensus - I’d put it now at 50/50. Again this assumes no boots on ground in Tehran. “Experts” saying this is impossible lack imagination and understanding of how technology has shifted over the last two decades. F) this is also political theatre - both for the American people who lost the appetite for forever wars and who need to fully internalize that Europeans are worthless as allies in their current form as well as the Europeans themselves who need to be reminded how much pain a hostile America can inflict on them if they decide China is their preferred option G) Russia-Ukraine is closely connected to all of this. On one hand Trump can accel Russian production degradation by feeding UKR intelligence on Russian refinery capacity deeper inland while at the same time can completely pull back from supporting Ukraine as part of the aforementioned political theatre… “this is not our fight” - this is why Trump didn’t ask Ukraine for help on drones. It’s a card that can be played in multiple directions. H) analysts are not wrong when they freak out about global energy prices risk. Analysts are wrong to tie that back to midterms and American voters. Trump will use executive powers to manipulate prices at the pump if necessary. I) liquidity is decreasing globally just as it’s about to increase domestically. The U.S. via swap lines and control over institutions like the IMF is the liquidity provider of last resort. Kind of like when your insurance provider starts setting Forrest fires in your neighborhood and then immediately jacks up the premiums you have to pay to protect your house. J) remove the words “fair” and “moral” from your vocabulary. We are firmly in a world of realpolitik and Americas don’t give a flying fuck if the rest of the world burns. Hegemony or bust. K) there is a dual benefit of this war being an advertisement of US military prowess and a weakening of the veneer that China has closed the gap with the US systems. This impacts how countries will act in the coming days and which sphere they opt in to. L) trumps tolerance for dead American soldiers is higher than you think. Trumps tolerance for lower stocks is higher than you think. Doesn’t mean he won’t take steps to mitigate both. You don’t fight for hegemony without being certain you can handle punches to the face. M) terror attacks on the US will be the final step for Iran before regime change. It’s higher prob than consensus thinks but it’s also not a certainty because Americans are bloodthirsty when the homeland is touched and it’s a door you can’t walk back out of. European & UAE terror attacks likely come first. N) this operation has gone better than any reasonable analyst would have predicted. Panicans are starting from the premise that every person in Washington is retarded and Trump walked into a trap with the assumption that not a single barrel of oil would be lost or soldier scratched. Retardation 🫡

@hkuppy I think some sort of TACO is still much more likely than full invasion of Iran — would obviously be comprehensive political suicide to undergo a massive invasion. Probably the US will just do a deal where we get fucked by Iran bc it is the best of all shitty options

Trump can TACO, burrito and chimichanga, but nothing will open Hormuz unless Iran wants it open. We can’t go home with Hormuz shut and missiles raining down on our friends. The only way out, is through Iran.. As scary as that sounds, I think we’re going to mobilize serious boots on the ground. That takes 6+ months. No one’s portfolio is positioned for half a year of this chaos…

@0xMerp What book is this from?

the biggest advantage that the rapidly developing countries in the east have over the west is that they got to watch America make mistakes for two decades after their economy hit critical mass these countries have their own set of problems like population growth but the probability of a new world order is pretty obvious when you compare even subway systems across the world

@0xMerp Without full future game, with future game will be much more +EV to call because of value of after CL winning this hand

Pretty crazy video of Kristen foxen folding kings pre flop and the best response I’ve seen is a video of some guy streaming himself playing a tournament where his opponent jams pre flop and he says “this guy is telling me I have aces but I have kings im not folding i jam and I lose” And he loses, and he starts ranting about how he was right and he’s never fucking folding kings And then you look at the earnings and he’s made like $200k versus foxen’s literal millions And it seems like he’s right, idk Why are u folding kings pre that’s crazy, that’s why this guys rant is so relatable and memorable But she’s the one with millions in poker earnings while the rest of us, are not Interesting to think about these things

@CryptoMikli @notthreadguy Epic hoodie

Threadguy says this market has him replying to texts he ignored months ago “It’s 65 degrees in New York. I walk outside and I’m like maybe life isn’t so bad. Then I open TradingView and it’s all over” “I got a coffee, a black cold brew with a little milk in there. I walked out the shop and thought, ‘what drama can I start today?’ I just started responding to girls’ messages from a month ago, scrolling through old texts”

@johnarnold prediction market traders are much slower learners

Equity traders learned to discount the daily Trump comments on tariffs after a few weeks of overreacting to them early in '25. Oil traders are quickly learning the same lesson.

AFTTB --- Always Fade Trump Talking Bullshit

one of the best spots i have seen so far on poly -- no ceasefire by mar31 time to double down

@0xMerp Have been irresponsibly short all of this stuff last few weeks, adding everytime Trump says some dumb shit and fake pumps it

could probably sell all of these and make money

theyre negotiating guys dont worry

Prediction Markets Conference in Las Vegas (April 22–24) is stacking one of the strongest speaker lineups in the space (+ more speakers announced soon) If you’re paying attention to this industry, you should be in the room @predictionconlv

At one point today, the chances of a ceasefire in Iran reached about 45%. But now the odds have stabilized at around 19%, which is still quite high. A new round of escalation is beginning “under the guise” of negotiations, which no one believes in - including Trump himself. All of this was done simply to temporarily bring down oil prices.

BREAKING: Iran issues a statement DENYING President Trump's post which claimed the US and Iran have had "productive conversations" to end the Iran War: Iran says: 1. "There has been no indirect or direct contact with President Trump" 2. President Trump is trying to "buy time" in the Iran War 3. President Trump "withdrew" from power plant strikes after Iran's "firm warning" 4. President Trump's comments are "psychological warfare" 5. "Hormuz will not return to pre-war conditions as long as psychological warfare continues" Iran has entirely denied all of President Trump's claims.

Threadguy is taking physical delivery of crude barrels and turning his house into a storage facility "I exercised my contracts and got one shipped. They're not going to export control or stop my crude. I've got this barrel of American crude oil in my hand" "You can cap the price, you can slap export controls on it, but this thing right here is $200 a barrel" "There's a UPS truck outside with two guys and dollies hauling oil into the house. The stream room is turning into storage for American Phillips 66 crude"

Trump on Strait of Hormuz: “At a certain point, it’ll open itself.”