SebboFX

Dollar Index (DXY) is up 0.48% today EURUSD 1.1725 (-0.53%) GBPUSD 1.3481 (-0.39%) USDJPY 159.62 (+0.49%) AUDUSD 0.7135 (-0.57%) The weekend newsletter has been spot on so far.

A new edition of my newsletter is now available. I suspect that the dollar's weakness may be over for now, but the volatility surface (EURUSD) still indicates downside risk for the dollar. fxdesk.substack.com/p/the-dollar-s…

@bariksis The whole bull case is endless FED money. That's it. End of story.

You notice how the bears just show a chart with some lines and fractals, and say “4 year cycle, lower”. The bulls actually have real analysis on both the TA and macro side. Almost like one side is coping 👀 just an observation…

@Mr_Derivatives Another 2% up and then no more all-time highs this year – I’d prefer that.

$QQQ How about the tiniest of tiny small pullback next week back to retest the breakout line? Is that too much to ask for?! RHETORICAL! We're gonna go 50 straight green days! In all seriousness, be nice to cool down a bit.

@GAndersonTrades Trump is lighting the red candle for his lads.

What the people still ultra bearish expect next week's candle to look like

@gepardtatze @JulianRoepcke Mich nervt das auch mega, aber Insider-Trading machen sie alle im Senat, auch die Dems.

@JulianRoepcke Aber natürlich. Die wissen auch, dass sie nach der Präsidentschaft dafür in den Knast gehen würden. Deswegen wird man versuchen Trump eine 3. Amtszeit zu geben.

Diesen ganzen Humbug macht die Gang nur, um sich persönlich zu bereichern. Es ist zum heulen, dass diesen Verbrechern nicht Einhalt geboten wird.

@zerohedge It was more fun when u were always bearish.

aged well

@BickerinBrattle Celebrating for the sake of celebrating.

so after Hormuz and Trump back in the shitter - then what?

@Mr_Derivatives I suppose Americans in particular always think that tomorrow will be better than today. But deep down, Heisenberg, don’t you sometimes think that the system will eventually collapse after all?

The $SPX is up 13% since the March 30th lows. Just 14 trading days. If the $SPX repeated the 13% again here on out, we will be at 8,000. Insane to even fathom and the year is not even 1/3 completed…

If the Dollar Index (DXY) rises above the 100 mark, we can expect a prolonged rally. Today’s daily candle suggests that the low has been reached for now.

@Mr_Derivatives What exactly is the market supposed to be celebrating from Monday onwards?

I keep seeing these Wyckoff charts last few days… Pay attention or just ignore?

@E_Boeminghaus @marcfriedrich Na ich begreife, dass LH an einem Punkt angekommen ist, wo der Kampf mit der Gewerkschaft zu keinem Ziel mehr führt. Und ehrlich, niemand braucht die LH global betrachtet. Es gibt genug Fluglinien ohne regelmäßige (!) Flugausfälle wegen der endlosen Streikerei.

@marcfriedrich Wie befürchtet Marc. Schlimm, dass es nicht alle begreifen!

BREAKING - Riesenknall aus München: Lufthansa sieht rot und legt die Münchner Tochter CityLine sofort still. 2000 Mitarbeiter stehen von jetzt auf gleich vor dem Nichts. Ja! So sieht deutscher wirtschaftlicher Niedergang aus. Und wir stehen immer noch erst am Anfang! #Lufthansa #CityLine #Stellenabbau #Luftfahrt Schockwelle: Die Stilllegung von CityLine mit sofortiger Wirkung ist ein brutaler Einschnitt. Rund 2000 Mitarbeiter werden freigestellt und stehen faktisch vor dem Verlust ihres Jobs. Was als Tarifkonflikt begann, eskaliert nun zu einer Krise, die weit über die Tochtergesellschaft hinaus das gesamte Lufthansa Netzwerk erschüttert. Signalwirkung: Wenn selbst eine zentrale Regionaltochter im Zubringerverkehr so abrupt gestoppt wird, zeigt das die ganze Wucht der wirtschaftlichen und operativen Probleme. Für die Beschäftigten ist das ein Desaster. Für den Konzern ist es ein Offenbarungseid mit Ansage, denn die Unsicherheit um CityLine bestand schon seit Längerem. Hier fliegt nicht nur eine Tochter aus dem System, sondern für Tausende Menschen gleich die berufliche Existenz mit. Vielen Dank für den wichtigen Hinweis! Quelle: (BILD) bild.de/geld/wirtschaf…

@alphaticaio Are you kidding? I can show you hundreds of posts that say now is exactly not the time to short. You’re talking rubbish.

SPY just hit a new all-time high. FinTwit's favorite take: "Nowhere to go but down" and "the market has topped." We tested 22 years of SPY and QQQ data. Every all-time high since 2003. After hitting an ATH, the market makes ANOTHER new all-time high within 60 days 98% of the time. Within a year: 92%. "Nowhere to go but down" is wrong 92-98% of the time. 1-year forward returns after ATH: SPY +7.2%, 77% win rate. QQQ +17.0%, 87% win rate. Returns are slower than the long-run average but they're not negative. The market doesn't stop going up at all-time highs. It just goes up a little slower. "But every top starts at an all-time high." True. 100% of major drawdowns (>10%) in both SPY and QQQ began from an ATH. All 24 of them. But there were 1,136 total ATH days across both indices. Only 2.1% of ATH days are THE top. The other 97.9% are just another day on the way higher. ATHs cluster. 75% of SPY's ATH days and 84% of QQQ's are part of multi-day streaks. When the market breaks out, it keeps breaking out. The market spends 59% of its time within 5% of an all-time high. "Near ATH" isn't a warning. It's the normal state of a bull market. The best zone in the data: 21-60 days after an ATH. SPY 20d forward: +1.45%, 69% win. QQQ: +2.26%, 71% win. The buy-the-dip-from-highs window. All-time highs aren't the end of the rally. They're confirmation that it's working. The market tops when ATHs stop; not when they start. $SPY $QQQ $VIX $SPX

@DLewTrades It is just as much a part of human nature to write posts of this kind after a big rally, never before 🤣

One of the wildest things that everyone knows but nobody talks about is that retail traders are predominantly prone to doom-thinking and constantly wanting to short the market. It's the psyche trap of the 90%. The market goes up roughly 60–70% of the time.. yet traders are deeply committed to looking for tops. Why you ask? Because somehow, fear feels smarter than optimism. Shorting makes you feel like you’re seeing something others don’t. Like you’re early, a contrarian, ahead of the crowd. Calling a crash feels more intelligent than riding a trend when in reality, you’re just fighting the natural upside bias of markets driven by inflation, growth, and general human progress. Most traders don’t lose because they’re bad at entries. They lose because their entire mindset is jaded against the one thing that the market does best: go up.

@Mr_Derivatives That has been the usual modus operandi on the stock market for the past few years. I can well believe it 😃

In just the last 10 days, the $QQQ is up 12.2%. I mean most ppl would be happy with 12.2% returns over the span of two years. You got it in 10 trading days… Unbelievable.

@jensrabe_ Das stimmt natürlich 😄

@fxdesk Alles eine Frage der Kontogrösse

Put your money where your mouth is These: Der Iran Konflikt wird keinen weltweiten Krieg auslösen. Japan und der Nikkei sind saustark also verkaufe ich in den Rücksetzer weit aus dem Geld liegende Puts auf den N225. ありがとう Arigato

@jensrabe_ Oh sry, Strike sogar bei 43000. Noch mehr Shorts😀

@jensrabe_ Bei 9000 Nikkei und 42000er Strike sind das auf aktueller FX Spot Rate etwa 2 Mio EUR Shorts. Das kann Dich halt auch richtig abfucken. Viel Glück!