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Alphatica

@alphaticaio

Former HFM | Trading & Investing | Rigorous Quantitative Research | Institutional-grade for all Investors | Not Investment Advice | Youtube Channel: @alphatica

United States Katılım Temmuz 2023
59 Takip Edilen13.9K Takipçiler
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Alphatica
Alphatica@alphaticaio·
Signal #001: 20-Day Final Published March 30. Tracked publicly every single day for 20 trading days. Every pick timestamped. Every update posted, the good days and the bad. 20-Day Results: Longs +20.50% | Shorts +0.03% | L/S Spread: +20.52% SPY did +13.15% over the same period. Our long book beat it by 735bps. Our short book finished flat in a market that rallied 13%. That's the definition of a clean signal. $STX +64.4%, $MOH +36.3%, $AMAT +25.3%, $PANW +18.5%, $BAX +17.0%. 7 of 8 longs positive. $RSG +7.0% and $MCD +5.8% led the short book. This was our first public signal. We showed the work. Now it's closed. Signal #002 is live. Future signals go exclusively to email subscribers at entry. Sign up link in bio. Longs: $CRM $STX $PANW $GDDY $BRO $AMAT $MOH $BAX Shorts: $CMS $RSG $EVRG $ESS $CPT $MCD $DTE $VTR $SPY $SPX $QQQ
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Alphatica
Alphatica@alphaticaio·
Our equity strategy analyst Sofia Reyes previews Q2 earnings for the big four banks. JPM, GS, BAC and C are all trading at or near their consensus targets. The beat is priced in. The guide is what will move them. The full breakdown in under 4 minutes including actionable setups. Not investment advice. $JPM $GS $SPY
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Alphatica
Alphatica@alphaticaio·
@henry_petzold We saw $240 million $DRAM buy in the LIT exchange about an hour ago. We did not post it because it was not Dark Pool.
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Alphatica@alphaticaio·
We are heading back to session lows. $USO is mispriced based on the data. OIL is a supply side story. VWAP VELOCITY: VWAP Vel: 15m:-5.3pts 30m:-4.6pts $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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mahesh
mahesh@maheshkandasamy·
@alphaticaio Okay… we are making session lows now … 👍
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Alphatica@alphaticaio·
@mwhitmoe Going to even out when this is done. $USO
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Mark Whitmore 🇺🇦 🇵🇸
@alphaticaio I continue to respectfully be a little baffled by your take. Even by conservative estimates, well over 1 billion barrels of crude supply have disappeared since late February. This has temporarily been filled by strategic reserve drawdowns and Cushing going to minimum levels.
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Alphatica
Alphatica@alphaticaio·
Oil has surged 9% on the Strait of Hormuz blockade. FinTwit is panicking. Read the research before you position. We built the $100 Oil Stress Timer after the last Hormuz spike. The framework hasn't changed. The price isn't the signal. The duration is. Every supply-driven oil spike in our dataset mean-reverted before the 30-day threshold. The last one: $107 to $91 in one week. The timer never triggered. If oil is above $100 in 30 days, the framework shifts. Until then, this is the same pattern the data has shown every time. Full research below. 👇 $SPY $QQQ $USO
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Alphatica@alphaticaio

WTI crossed $100 on March 27. The clock is ticking. $100 oil isn't the signal. $100 oil for 30+ days is. We analyzed every trading day WTI spent above $100 since 2003. 547 days. Then measured SPY forward returns at each duration threshold. The results are statistically significant at P < 0.0001 across 7 of 8 tests. What we found: SPY forward returns deteriorate monotonically the longer oil stays above $100. The market can absorb a spike. What it can't absorb is sustained pressure. The numbers: → ≥1 day above $100: SPY 10d return -0.28% → ≥30 days: -0.54% (win rate drops below 50%) → ≥50 days: -1.33% → ≥100 days: -1.40% (10d), -6.86% (20d) → ≥120 days: -3.81% (10d), -13.43% (20d), 0% win rate The baseline SPY 10d return is +0.38%. At ≥30 days above $100, that flips negative and never recovers. This isn't a round-number artifact. The same duration-dependent decay appears at $90 and $110. It's a fundamental relationship. Sustained high oil acts as a margin tax on the entire economy, and the market has a tolerance window of roughly 30 days before it starts to crack. The important caveat: the extreme results (≥100 days) are disproportionately 2008-weighted. The pattern held in 2011–2014 with smaller magnitude, and held again in 2022 where SPY fell ~11% across the full March–July regime when oil repeatedly crossed above $100. The direction is consistent. The effect size is regime-dependent. If this is a brief spike, history says equities shrug it off. If oil sustains above $100 for 30+ days, every analog except 2013 shows the market breaking. $SPY $QQQ $VIX $USO #WTI #OIL

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mm?@ahthongkorkor·
@alphaticaio Nothing for the 14, not that I know of no. But all it takes is a truth from trump and war is over again. 15 he'll speak though
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Alphatica
Alphatica@alphaticaio·
DARK POOL SCANNER | July 13, 2026 +$1.48B net buy. The tapes disagree. Again. $SPY +$1.81B. The dark pool is buying what the lit tape sold. $META -$407M. Both agree sell. $SOXX -$177M. CPI tomorrow. Q3 week three. 360 off-exchange prints. +$1.48B net. NET BUY. Dark Pool Buyers: $SPY +$1.81B (50 prints, LIT: -$713M, DISAGREE, $191M ALERT) $MU +$438M (23 prints, BOTH AGREE BUY, BOTH WEEKS) $QQQ +$415M (52 prints, LIT: -$2.09B, DISAGREE) $MSFT +$239M (9 prints, BOTH AGREE BUY, OSCILLATION BACK) $AMD +$22M (9 prints) Dark Pool Sellers: $META -$407M (29 prints, BOTH AGREE SELL, $577→$660, DONE) $SOXX -$177M (10 prints, -3.7% ON SCANNER) The tapes disagree at the macro level. Lit tape: -$7.17B net sell. Dark pool: +$1.48B net buy. An $8.65B gap between the two tapes. $SPY: +$1.81B dark pool. Lit: -$713M. We alerted $191M in SPY buys at 2:46 PM. Two equal $95.5M prints. Nine seconds apart. One institution splitting a $191M order. The EOD confirms: the dark pool bought $SPY at the largest single-session level of the series. The lit tape is selling the index. The dark pool is buying it. $QQQ: +$415M dark pool. Lit: -$2.09B. We alerted the $178M QQQ sell at 12:43 PM. That was the lit tape. The dark pool disagrees at +$415M. $META: -$407M. Both tapes agree sell. The only name where both venues are aligned. We alerted the $105M sell at 1:44 PM. The profit-taking from $577 to $660 is complete on both tapes. The cycle: the dark pool bought at $577, we alerted it, the stock ran to $660, the dark pool sold. Both directions documented. $MU: +$438M dark pool. +$1.99B lit. Both tapes agree buy. The only name with cross-venue consensus on the buy side at scale. MU is the consensus long. $SOXX: -$177M dark pool. The rotation scanner showed $SOXX -3.7%. The dark pool is selling SOXX. Last week the $163M after-hours SOXX buy called the +5.1% bounce. Today: the dark pool is on the other side. Worth watching. The pattern from last week: The lit tape sold at series extremes. The dark pool bought. The dark pool was right 13/17 times. Today: the lit tape sold -$7.17B ahead of CPI. The dark pool bought +$1.48B. The same pattern. The same divergence. Tomorrow's CPI + bank earnings test whether the dark pool is right again. The data is positioned. The catalyst arrives tomorrow morning. Watching the tape.
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Alphatica@alphaticaio·
We are raising our capital spending estimate for the five largest cloud and AI companies to $1.4 trillion through 2028. Up from $1.2 trillion in 2027. That is a 20% increase driven by rising costs for memory chips and data center infrastructure. Here is what this means in plain terms. The biggest companies in the world, Meta, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Apple, are spending more money building AI infrastructure than anyone expected. And they keep revising the number higher. A year ago the estimate was under a trillion. Now it is $1.4 trillion. The direction has only been one way: up. Why costs are rising. Data centers now take up to three years to build from start to finish. Memory chips like the ones Micron and SK Hynix make are getting more expensive as demand outstrips supply. The physical buildings that house the servers, called powered shells, cost 20% more than they did a year ago. Local communities are pushing back against data center construction, which adds delays and costs. And political uncertainty is causing companies to rush projects forward to lock in approvals, which drives costs even higher. What this means for stocks. Meta is a top pick because the market has punished Meta for spending on AI but has not given it any credit for the revenue that spending will generate. Think of it this way: Meta is investing billions today to build something that will make money tomorrow. The stock price reflects the cost but not yet the payoff. We also favor Google because their cloud and AI revenue accelerate in the second half of 2026. The bigger picture for your portfolio. The money flows somewhere. It flows to memory makers like Micron and SK Hynix. It flows to chip designers like NVIDIA and Broadcom. It flows to power companies like GE Vernova and Vistra. It flows to construction and electrical infrastructure. This is the AI value chain our analyst Lauren Hayes covered. The hyperscalers are telling you the cycle is accelerating, not slowing. $1.4 trillion does not get spent on a trend that is peaking. It gets spent on infrastructure the companies believe will generate returns for a decade. The question investors should focus on: can these companies bring capacity online fast enough to turn the spending into revenue? The ones that can will be rewarded. The ones that cannot will be punished for the cost without the payoff. Right now Meta is the best positioned to make that conversion. The data agrees. We track it. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE $META $QQQ $GOOG
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mm?@ahthongkorkor·
@alphaticaio Consecutive dark pool buys feels like a precursor to 🌮 Tuesday or positive prints... Time will tell
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Alphatica@alphaticaio·
@TechPerma No, we will alert our channel like we always do when there is drawdown risk. $SPY
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PermaTechBull
PermaTechBull@TechPerma·
@alphaticaio Were were not bullish, we only provide data is What we will hear during the drawdown. Bookmark this
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Alphatica
Alphatica@alphaticaio·
Bears all covering at the same time. lol VWAP Vel: 15m:+4.2pts 30m:+6.4pts $SPY $QQQ
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Alphatica@alphaticaio·
-$7.17B. The lit tape de-risked ahead of CPI. $META -$1.36B. Profit taken. $AAPL -$819M. $NVDA -$816M. Last week's winners sold. $MU +$1.99B. The only consistent buyer. Q3 week three. $15.45B in buy blocks. $22.62B in sells. Net: -$7.17B. 21,640 prints. The sellers: $QQQ -$2.09B (2,839 blocks, $178M DP SELL ALERT AT 12:43 PM) $META -$1.36B (886 blocks, LAST WEEK: +$1.50B, +14.81%, PROFIT TAKEN) $AAPL -$819M (795 blocks, 4 SESSIONS NEAR-ZERO SELLS, NOW SELLING) $NVDA -$816M (1,605 blocks, FRI: +$3.99B, NOW SELLING) $SPY -$713M (2,326 blocks) $AMD -$42M (1,100 blocks) The buyers: $MU +$1.99B (2,881 blocks, BOTH WEEKS, BOTH TAPES, CONSISTENT) $MSFT +$785M (605 blocks, FLIPPED, 6 SESSIONS ALTERNATING) Last week: three consecutive +$13B sessions. $46.8B net buy. The largest buying run of the series. Today: -$7.17B. The institutions took profit on last week's winners ahead of CPI + bank earnings. $META: -$1.36B. Last week: +$1.50B dark pool buy. +14.81% return. We alerted the $255M buy Thursday. Receipts posted Friday. Today: -$1.36B. The cycle completed. $577 to $660. Profit taken. $NVDA: -$816M. Friday: +$3.99B with $6.5M sells. We alerted the $326M dark pool buy. Today: selling. The name that had near-zero opposition on Friday now faces selling pressure ahead of CPI. $MU: +$1.99B. The exception. Both weeks accumulated. The $200M pre-market alert from last Wednesday continues to validate. The only mega-cap with consistent buying across both the sell week and the CPI positioning day. $MSFT: +$785M. Six sessions alternating: +$2.02B, -$503M, +$226M, -$731M, -$305M, +$785M. The oscillation continues. The lit tape sold -$7.17B ahead of CPI. But the dark pool tells a different story. +$1.48B net buy. The tapes disagree again. Last week when the tapes disagreed, the dark pool was right 13/17 times. CPI tomorrow. Watching the tape.
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Alphatica@alphaticaio·
DARK POOL NET VOLUME JUST WENT GREEN. WAS RED THE ENTIRE DAY. $SPY $QQQ
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Alphatica@alphaticaio·
We are going to have bank earnings this evening. BUT if you want to be a degenerate and play here is the target and upside picture based on current price heading into tomorrow: WFC: +13.6% ← most upside but weakest conviction C: +12.7% ← most upside WITH strong conviction BAC: +9.9% JPM: +6.6% GS: +0.4% ← no room, needs the guide There is some room here not much. Guidance will be crucial. Historically Q2 is positive. $JPM $SPY $GS
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Alphatica@alphaticaio·
$789 is the target of a pattern with a 97% historical success rate and an average drawdown of 5.7% before reaching the target. We published both numbers. The drawdown from the breakout so far is 0.26%. The pattern isn't a straight line. We said that too. The data is the data. It includes the win rate AND the drawdown. Read both. $SPY
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Alphatica@alphaticaio·
@TechPerma We did not guide anyone anywhere. We provide the data. That's what we do.
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Alphatica@alphaticaio·
$SPY UNUSUAL DARK POOL ALERT: | 14:46:48 SPY BUY $95,515,616 NASDAQ Car │ | 14:46:39 SPY BUY $95,515,616 NASDAQ Car | $95.5M $SPY buy. NASDAQ Carteret. (2:46:48) $95.5M $SPY buy. NASDAQ Carteret. (2:46:39) $191M. Same dollar amount. Same venue. Nine seconds apart. One institution splitting a $191M order into two equal prints. Three sell alerts earlier today: $TGT -$211M. $QQQ -$178M. $META -$105M. Now $191M in $SPY buys. Selling single names. Buying the broad index ahead of CPI. Watching the tape. $SPY $QQQ
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