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Ab

@itsdullahkr

Mech. Engineer @SyracuseU | Proud Saudi | Focused on the intersection of Global Economics & Geopolitics. All views expressed are my own.

Beigetreten Mart 2011
247 Folgt121 Follower
Mario Nawfal
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal·
🚨🇸🇦🇺🇸 MBS wants Iranian energy infrastructure struck. Specifically. On top of everything else. Iran already told the world what happens if that occurs: Gulf energy facilities, Israeli power grids, and economic infrastructure where Americans have equity all become targets. That tells you everything about how MBS weighs the threat of a permanently armed Iran against the cost of finishing this now. He's looked at what Iran does to his region over decades and decided that whatever comes back from hitting their energy infrastructure is less dangerous than leaving it intact. Washington has 5 days to decide if he's right. Source: NYT
Mario Nawfal tweet mediaMario Nawfal tweet media
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal

🚨🇸🇦🇺🇸 BREAKING: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is privately urging Trump to continue the war against Iran and calling it a historic opportunity to remove the Iranian government. That's a man who has been waiting for this window for a very long time and doesn't want it closed before it's finished. Source: @clashreport, NYT

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Ab@itsdullahkr·
@MarioNawfal Well said. Iran was not a direct threat to us pre-war, but it is after the war. What should anyone expect from the GCC after getting all these missiles shot at us? What happened to the peace agreement? This is all on the Trump administration.
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Mario Nawfal
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal·
🇸🇦🇮🇷 Saudi Arabia wants Iran’s missile capabilities degraded before war ends. Riyadh however does not want Iran’s civilian infrastructure harmed. Source: CNN
Mario Nawfal tweet mediaMario Nawfal tweet media
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Fmr U.S. envoy to Ukraine on Iran War: "I'm a big believer in putting boots on the ground, not necessarily into a Iran, but taking Kharg Island and also taking the Strait of Hormuz. We kind of need to do it the way the Romans used to do."

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Ab@itsdullahkr·
Could it be a master plan between the US and Iran to redirect all energy sales from the Middle East to the US as leverage for Iran in the negotiations? The EU and Asian countries should not take the bait; otherwise, the main US objectives will be achieved.
Clash Report@clashreport

Iran halted gas exports to Türkiye after the Israeli strike on the South Pars field. Türkiye relies on Iran for ~14% of its gas but can offset it short-term with supplies from Russia/Azerbaijan and stored reserves. The duration is unclear. Source: Bloomberg

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Ab@itsdullahkr·
@ShadowofEzra Newsom is a carbon copy of Biden. He shouldn't win. Why do Americans keep falling into the same trap?
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Shadow of Ezra
Shadow of Ezra@ShadowofEzra·
Gavin Newsom refuses to say whether he considers himself a Zionist and instead says he is a proud supporter of the State of Israel. Newsom says he only dislikes Benjamin Netanyahu because he is too “far right.” Newsom has aligned himself with J Street, a “liberal alternative” to AIPAC, embracing its “liberal Zionist” platform as he prepares for a potential 2028 presidential run.
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Ab@itsdullahkr·
@A7DATH_M إلى متى ستستمر بنقل الأخبار التي لها أهداف مبطنة دون التحقق من المصدر؟
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الأحداث العالمية
عاجل: نيويورك تايمز: ولي العهد السعودي الأمير محمد بن سلمان يضغط على الرئيس ترامب لمواصلة الحرب ضد إيران، بحجة أن الحملة العسكرية تمثل "فرصة تاريخية" لإعادة تشكيل الشرق الأوسط. أوضح الأمير محمد لترامب أنه يجب عليه الضغط من أجل تدمير الحكومة الإيرانية المتشددة. كما ضغط ولي العهد محمد بن سلمان لشن ضربات على البنية التحتية للطاقة في إيران.
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Ab@itsdullahkr·
Fake news. You should all be aware that these news outlets have been trying to drag the GCC into this war with Israel against Iran. Now that they couldn’t achieve that, they are instead trying to convince Iran that Saudi is the reason. What does this tell you? The GCC tried hard to stop Trump from getting into this mess before the war. However, after the war happened, this irrational regime (caused by Trump’s decisions) cannot continue; otherwise, so much bombardment will happen in the long run. None of this was wanted before the war. The GCC’s focus was and is to grow to become economically and militarily sufficient. The US is 100% to blame here. The US wanted all of this to pressure the EU and Asian countries to start purchasing oil and LNG from them and make the Middle East an “unstable” region with high risk.
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Ab@itsdullahkr·
@clashreport But he also thinks that Israel is an even greater threat to literally any country in the region.
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Clash Report
Clash Report@clashreport·
BIG: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is urging Trump to continue the war against Iran, calling it a “historic opportunity” to reshape the Middle East and potentially weaken or remove Iran’s government. He thinks Iran is a "long-term threat that must be decisively dealt with." Source: NYT
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Mark Slapinski
Mark Slapinski@mark_slapinski·
I love Jews! But I don't love Netanyahu! Why don't people understand the distinction??
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The Palestine News Network
The Palestine News Network@PaliNewsNetwork·
The Axis of Justice 🇵🇸 🇮🇷 🇾🇪 🇱🇧 🇮🇶 🇨🇺 vs. The Axis of Epstein 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇬🇧 🇩🇪 🇨🇦 🇦🇺 🇫🇷 🇦🇪 🇸🇦 🇰🇼 🇯🇴
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Ab@itsdullahkr·
@itsmarziadossal @PaliNewsNetwork This is proven fake 😂 How about we check the emails? Show me the same indicating the relationship.
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Ab@itsdullahkr·
I really think whatever they agree on is just for the public and is meant to prevent the world economy from going into a recession. There’s no way Iran would surrender like that after everything that’s happened to them. I do hope, though, that they would.
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal

🚨🇮🇷🇮🇱 BREAKING: Israel's Channel 12 is reporting that Iran has agreed to freeze its missile program for 5 years as part of emerging talks. If true, that's not a ceasefire. That's a restructuring of the entire Middle East security architecture. Single source. Unverified. But the kind of headline that, if it holds, changes everything. CGTN

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Ab@itsdullahkr·
@MarioNawfal I think Trump is lying to calm the oil prices down
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Mario Nawfal
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal·
I don’t know if Trump lied about his Iran negotiations, or whether Iran’s going through an internal power struggle But today’s developments made me a lot more hopeful of the current war Trump does not want a forever war, and he may actually pull off a Venezuela 2.0
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal

MAJOR DEVELOPMENT: The man Trump claimed he was negotiating with just said this is fake news by Trump to manipulate the financial and oil markets This means one of two things: 1. Trump lied 2. The IRGC pressured the Iranian negotiator to pull out of the talks My bet is on #2, and we are seeing a power struggle in Iran in real time As explained in my post below, we are seeing a split in Iran between the ideological and radical IRGC, which are fighting for their survival, and the more moderate and pragmatic executive branch This could get ugly

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Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡
BREAKING: Iran’s Foreign Minister just told you exactly how the Strait of Hormuz was closed. Not with mines. Not with missiles. Not with warships. With a spreadsheet. Abbas Araghchi posted on X this morning: “Strait of Hormuz is not closed. Ships hesitate because insurers fear the war of choice you initiated, not Iran. No insurer, and no Iranian, will be swayed by more threats. Try respect.” He is not lying. He is describing the mechanism that nobody in Washington, Brussels, or on any trading desk wants to name out loud. Iran did not physically seal the Strait of Hormuz. Marine war risk insurers did. Major providers scrapped cover for vessels operating in the Persian Gulf. Without insurance, no tanker sails. Without tankers, no oil moves. Without oil moving, 15 million barrels of crude sit trapped every day. Iran’s weapon is not the mine. Iran’s weapon is the risk premium. The mine is the trigger. The insurer is the transmission mechanism. The underwriter’s spreadsheet closed the strait, not the warhead. This is why 22 countries coordinating with NATO will not reopen it. You cannot escort a tanker through a strait if no insurer will write the policy for the cargo. You cannot force Lloyd’s of London to underwrite a voyage at gunpoint. The mine clears. The drone threat neutralises. The coastal batteries degrade. And the insurer still says no, because the war is still happening, because the 48-hour ultimatum is ticking, because Iranian missiles just hit Diego Garcia at 4,000 kilometres, because the IRGC retains 90 percent of its minelayers, and because the actuarial model does not care about press conferences. The AAII sentiment survey published March 19 shows 52 percent of individual investors are now bearish, the highest reading since spring 2025. Bullish sentiment has fallen to 30.4 percent. The bull-bear spread is negative 21.6 percentage points. These are not numbers from a market worried about earnings. These are numbers from a market that has processed the same mechanism Araghchi just described. The war is not being fought in the strait. The war is being fought in the risk model. The market is splitting in two. Energy stocks have hit 20 all-time highs in 2026, the most since 2013. The sector is up 29 percent year-to-date and 367 percent since the 2020 pandemic low. New US home sales collapsed 17.6 percent month-on-month to 587,000, the lowest since 2022, with the median price down 6.8 percent year-over-year. Bitcoin fell below $68,000. One half of the market is pricing a world where oil stays trapped. The other half is pricing a world where everything else breaks. US intelligence assessed before Epic Fury that Iranian regime collapse was low probability. The IDF says weeks more of fighting remain. Araghchi says the strait is not closed. Trump says open it in 48 hours or he destroys the power grid. Iran says if the power grid is hit, the strait closes permanently and all regional energy infrastructure becomes a target. The insurer hears all five statements and reaches the same conclusion: the policy stays cancelled. The strait is 21 miles wide. The insurance policy is one page. And the one page is doing more damage to the global economy than every mine, missile, and drone Iran has fired in 23 days of war. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ tweet media
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Ab@itsdullahkr·
I beg to differ. The US put the GCC in this position to begin with. The US has made Iran so desperate that it has had to attack its neighbors to take revenge on the US. The US will soon attack Iran's infrastructure, knowing that Iran will retaliate by attacking GCC infrastructure. So, is the US really a reliable ally?
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DJ White
DJ White@dwhite0279·
@MarioNawfal Attacking their neighbors is only proving the US's point.
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Mario Nawfal
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal·
🇮🇷 Iran threatened to destroy every desalination plant in the Middle East. Nobody realizes the damage to the water: - Kuwait: 90% of all drinking water - Oman: 86% - Israel: 75% - Saudi Arabia: 70% (world’s biggest capacity) One coordinated strike and entire countries run out of water overnight. This is way more dangerous than anyone is saying. Source: @binsaeedrashid
Mario Nawfal tweet media
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal

🇮🇱🇱🇧 Israel destroyed the Al-Qasimia Bridge, a major civilian crossing in southern Lebanon. They claim Hezbollah used it for fighters and weapons. But this is part of systematically blowing up every Litani bridge to cut southern Lebanon off completely.

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Ab@itsdullahkr·
How come normalizing with Israel has anything to do with the GCC wanting the US to keep bombing Iran? Saudi Arabia has been clear from day one: we didn’t want an unnecessary war and we pressured the US not to destabilize the region. The US went ahead anyway and created this mess. Now that the Iranian regime is hurting, it is clearly acting irrationally by attacking countries it had peace agreements with. It sounded like you were mocking the GCC. Given your extensive experience and interviews with many experts, what do you think the GCC should do? Join the war and keep the region in chaos forever? Or pressure the US to stop while the regime keeps disrupting the region? If anyone is to blame here, it is 100% the US for making such foolish decisions and supporting Netanyahu’s even more extremist government.
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Mario Nawfal
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal·
🚨🇮🇷 Gulf states to Washington: keep striking. Don't stop. Dismantle Iran's military permanently. Same Gulf states: we will not normalize with Israel. Same Gulf states: Israel is killing Lebanese civilians and weakening a government we back. Same Gulf states: the region hasn't forgotten Gaza. They want Iran destroyed. But they certainly don't want to be seen wanting it. @DropSiteNews, Times of Israel
Mario Nawfal tweet media
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal

🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸 Trump has called people names, written in caps, threatened on Truth Social. Asked about Iran's foreign minister saying threats don't work: "Ok, let's see whether or not he's right." Calm. Flat. Reserved. That's a different register entirely. @officialrnintel

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