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@tgey12765 @JessicaTaylor I mean they did just fine lol And they generally have access to internal polls projects.jhkforecasts.com/forecast-histo…

@JessicaTaylor So how accurate was the cook political report in 2024? You people don't get these polls are full of s***

🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨 #NCSen: Toss Up —> Lean D #GASen: Toss Up —> Lean D #OHSen: Lean R —> Toss Up #NESen: Solid R —> Likely R

@RefinedLurk @kareem_carr Idk why he’s talking in circles lol These models look at polls, fundamentals (economy and past elections usually) and sometimes demographic regression (inferring demographic trends from polls). It’s really asking “what do these predictors say and how likely are they to be wrong”

@kareem_carr I think you haven’t really thought through this topic

The level of statistical illiteracy on this platform is driving me crazy.

@StriderGfx Pathetic. Inviz released SS where Boom referenced the limiting nature of the contract and pre-written PR statements. Goodman’s messages show hallmarks of a rushed ai made statement, full of desperate and manipulative emotional appeals. Boom lawyered up. You and inviz should too.

Here is the actual proof and facts.

@TPSIOfficial Using ai respondents???

OUR NATIONAL POLL HAS RELEASED: tpsiofficial.substack.com/p/the-public-s… Check out our article for a lot more data to view. Generic Ballot: D+8 Trump Approve: 45 Approve to 54 Disapprove Trump on Epstein: -32 Trump on Iran: -11

I’ve stayed quiet for a while, but some of you have seriously crossed the line. I am a freelancer and a creator. I accepted professional work. That is my choice, and nobody has the right to harass me, insult me, slander me, dogpile me, or wish harm on me because of it. You are allowed to disagree with me. You are allowed to dislike my decision. You are allowed to have your own opinions. What you are not allowed to do is turn that into targeted harassment and then pretend it is somehow justified. A lot of people in this community have gone way too far. Calling me names, labeling me a traitor, trying to damage my reputation, encouraging hate, and in some cases even wishing death on me is disgusting. That is not criticism. That is not accountability. It is harassment. Some of you have gotten so deep into mob behavior that you now act like creators are not even people anymore, just targets to attack if they make a choice you personally do not like. That mindset is toxic, childish, and honestly pathetic. Let me make this clear: my career choices are not yours to control. You do not own me. You do not decide who I work with. You do not get to bully me into obedience because you built your own narrative and convinced yourselves it gives you moral permission to attack me. And since some people keep acting like I was supposed to turn this down over rumors, theories, and vague hints, let me spell it out: the person all of you keep speaking for never directly told me not to take this work, never told me I was wrong for taking it, and had every chance to do so. So no, I was not going to let a crowd of people running on assumptions make my decisions for me. Expecting that was never fair, never reasonable, and honestly says a lot more about the entitlement behind this backlash than it does about me. And to the bigger voices and creators helping fuel this kind of behavior: you know exactly what you are doing when you frame someone as deserving of public hatred. You do not get to throw someone into the crowd and then act innocent when the crowd starts attacking. Disagree with me all you want. But the harassment stops here. I will not keep going back and forth with people who are committed to bad faith, insults, and dogpiling. I said what I needed to say. From this point on, anyone continuing to harass me is just proving my point. #SKIBIDITOILET

@dradamo07 @Plunger_Woman Why are you like this Adam? Is it because you got fired so suddenly by Paramount that you had to find out via media reporting, not your own company?

@Plunger_Woman Iron was never ignored. He was invited in office. He’s the ONLY one who came into the office and sat with us, left telling his dad it was a great day. Then heard rumors and decided to not to hear the facts. Facts matter. Iron choose to ignore them

Inviz CEO Adam Goodman just tried to claim creators were the ones ignoring them, not that Inviz ignored creators. In reality, Iron Cameraman and many others asked Inviz what happened to Boom. Iron sent long messages of advice to Inviz many times, and was ignored. #BringBoomBack

Creator of Skibidi Toilet, DaFuqBoom, no longer owns his YouTube channel. Now, fans are unsubscribing. Invisible Narratives (the IP owners) just removed his username and social links and rebranded the channel with their own imagery, after obtaining control of the channel in late 2025. This move comes amidst controversy and protests over the creator's apparent loss of control over the series, after leaked DMs showed a creator that felt "paranoid", "trapped", "scammed" and "lied to". Boom, who animated the series himself for two years, originally partnered with Invisible in October 2023 to elevate the brand - but now has no hands-on role. Since protests erupted, Boom has said nothing to reassure fans' worries about his situation. What little he has said points towards unhappiness with Invisible, and quiet support for the "Bring Boom Back" movement. The channel has already lost ~100k subscribers.

@BeshearStan 🫡

@j74205 Thanks for making it bro

Pretty notable that Trump’s approval rating is dropping much faster then in his first term, where he bounced back to -9 in time for the 2018 midterms. Trump has passed his agenda and his popularity keeps on declining. I don’t think we’re ready for a -20 approval midterm

@beowulf888 @simon_faire @vickersty @dummybrainy @MichaelSFuhrer @aiecon23 @JPWeiland @JosetteSchoenma Not sure if Simon is correct but perhaps variants obscured regional quirks. Most waves were evolution driven and would have been more uniform, while the divergence looks to be getting larger with the more stable variant picture lately.

@simon_faire @vickersty @dummybrainy @MichaelSFuhrer @aiecon23 @j74205 @JPWeiland @JosetteSchoenma I love you like a brother, Simon, but I'm not going to let you get away with claiming it's all due to the weather. Sure, the West has been warmer this season, but it's never diverged this much from the Nat'l average before—summer or winter. I don't buy the weather explanation.

It seems the CDC Covid Data Tracker has been replaced this week with an unholy useless mess. We'll see if any of this data is extractable or not... or it might just be time to hang this up.

Almost forgot but we still have ED visit data from Epic Cosmos I believe it has a bit less coverage than NSSP but we're at about 0.4% of ED visits for COVID @JPWeiland @dummybrainy @simon_faire pophive.org/respiratory-di…

@dummybrainy @vickersty I mean there is always gonna be a baseline (same with the hundreds of weekly flu hosps in the middle of summer) WWScan looks like all regions except the midwest are close to the low and the Midwest does tend to have an earlier reversal once colder weather hits

@vickersty I mean, it would be funny if it fell to zero. I still think it has room to shrink. There’s simply nothing on the up-around. It can probably do this for another month with no issues.

We all know to ignore the last few days of covid wastewater values by now but if this holds up for another week it's a Really Big Deal. The previous troughs in the omicron era were about 90-120; this is in the 60s and still falling. What does that mean for the fall? I dunno. 🤷‍♀️

@Catlove40476297 @MichaelSFuhrer CDC CIs don’t work like that, they tend to be closer to the lower bound

@MichaelSFuhrer @j74205 It's about the arithmetic average of 130k and 27k?

@MichaelSFuhrer @Catlove40476297 Fair enough, although the 2017/18 seasons burden still ended up over 50k with the CDC methodology Increased confirmed deaths would be consistent with an average flu season (deaths wise) + recent increases in flu surveillance especially with mandatory NHSN reporting

@Nucleocapsoid H5N1 breaks the wall of unaffected states

B3.13 in Nebraska cows. 🐄 Sequences would likely help tell us how it got there, but unclear if that sort of info is still bring shared? Best of luck to Nebraska Dept Ag & USDA as they work to keep this from spreading further. 🙏 aphis.usda.gov/news/agency-an…

@Nucleocapsoid @danwalker9999 @SolidEvidence Not sure if I could do much better haha One thing I'd add is that these readings being normalized to virus/PMMoV can be confounding (regional PMMoV higher in the West skews west readings lower) Wonder if PMMoV concentrations are different in LA? pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.10…

@danwalker9999 @SolidEvidence @j74205 See ramblings above and correct / improve if you like? This level of analysis is beyond my competence level, but I had a shot anyway...

Indeed possible silent outbreak in LA in late 2024. Milk products down drain (e.g. household dish-rinsing, plus expired milk discarded by supermarkets, plus human feces after EATING dairy) have been loosely invoked, but no *quantitative* estimate of these non-infection sources?

@Nucleocapsoid Sounds reasonable possibility but I’m still leaning to the animal explanation Mild B3.13 cases seem more limited (some respiratory illness, mostly conjunctivitis) compared to fatal H5 cases with replication across the body Undetected cases also more likely to be mild

@j74205 HPAI H5 (and H7) is gut-tropic in birds, of course, and causes gastro symptoms in many mammals, unlike typical H1 & H3. So 500 B3.13 infected in LA *might* shed like 10,000 H1/H3 patients. Just look at how much more SARS-2 RNA (partially gut-tropic) is shed than Seasonal Flu...

@Nucleocapsoid How many human infections do we need to explain high WW readings though? 2 CA cases via random surveillance suggests hundreds of undetected cases in the 2024/25 season, far from the full flu epidemics that typically generate high readings pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC46…

E.g. just how MUCH (mostly Pasteurized, but still PCR-positive) dairy would have to go down drain in urban LA to give 200 units in sewage, when Turlock ("creamerie town") industrial waste was 2500? If milk VOLUME required for LA signal unrealistic, human infection is suggested.

@simon_faire @MichaelSFuhrer @dummybrainy @vickersty @JPWeiland @beowulf888 @aiecon23 Here's the filtered dataset with US-wide visits to 2 decimal places %ED Visits was 1.6% this week, and based on the usual retroactive adjustment, the final rate for this week should fall around ~1.7% (just under my modeled peak of 1.76%) data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-…

@MichaelSFuhrer @dummybrainy @vickersty @JPWeiland @beowulf888 @j74205 @aiecon23 I know I can't be trusted with more than one decimal place, so that's all good, thanks.