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LUKE DOM WALKER
652 posts
LUKE DOM WALKER
@lukedomwalker
Dealer flow & gamma | Building tools for traders | /ES scalper | ex-SWE @AWS | https://t.co/C1iNCPb8fO
Austin, TX Beigetreten Temmuz 2020
29 Folgt241 Follower
Big put buys don’t automatically mean someone’s bearish.
Could be a hedge against a long portfolio, part of a spread, or just a volatility play.
You’re seeing the trade, not the reason behind it — and that context is everything.
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BOOTS ON THE GROUND NEXT ? IRAN ESCALATION ?
Someone just bought $26,652,320 worth of $SPY puts today.
It’s the biggest bet I’ve seen in a while.
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@TheAhmadOsman What’s the bare minimum hardware you’d say we’d need to run this properly?
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Kimi K2.6 beats Opus 4.6 and is only 3 points behind all top 3 models
Blows my mind that I am running this model locally on my own hardware
Frontier intelligence at home is already a reality, opensource AI will win
Ahmad@TheAhmadOsman
Been running Kimi K2.6 locally all morning I can say with full confidence that this is the current new opensource SOTA Amazing work by Moonshot folks
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Being as candid as possible, quit trading. Trading pays for talent, intelligence, determination, and work ethic. So do a million other paths, and the barrier to success in those is meaningfully lower. Why choose one of the most difficult arenas? It does not make sense.
To go a step further, look at the quality of the industry compared to others. Trading has a disproportionate amount of garbage people in it, and that environment matters more than people admit.
After stepping away, my life improved tenfold. I will take the money, but I genuinely regret starting trading in the first place. I could have made 5x the money elsewhere in the same amount of time.
If you are good at trading, you are excellent at other things I can almost guarantee that. You should be passionate about making money, not trading.
Lance Breitstein 🇺🇸🌎@TheOneLanceB
THE "CONSISTENTLY PROFITABLE" SKILL GAP & THE MYTH OF SUPPLEMENTAL INCOME FROM TRADING For many new traders or part-time traders, there is this pervasive belief that with some time and effort, they'll be able to make "just" a few grand per month to supplement their income. Or they "don't want to aim big, they just want to replace their current salary via trading so they can have more freedom." This is because people mistakenly believe that trading is like most other jobs, rather than it being a winner-take-all performance endeavor more akin to becoming a professional athlete. 99.9% of athletes will never make a dime professionally. There is no market demand for your average high school or college player. To even make league minimum in the NBA, you are still in the .0001% of basketball players. There is no such thing as just deciding to casually make a few grand as a pro athlete. Think about what it takes for someone to make $50k/yr as a golfer? The skill gap to earn an income or make the league minimum is crazy to comprehend. The analogy I gave with @AT09_Trader was the story of Brian Scalabrine. Even though Brian Scalabrine “sucked” in the NBA, he would absolutely annihilate 99.9% of the people calling him trash. He once said the famous line that he’s closer in skill to LeBron James than his haters are to him, and that line perfectly explains trading. The gap between unprofitable and elite looks massive from the outside, but the real canyon is between unprofitable and making any amount of money consistently. People look at a trader making $1M a year and think that’s a different species. They assume someone doing $100k a year is basically the same as the guy still blowing accounts, just with better luck. That’s like saying Scalabrine and your friend who plays pickup on Tuesdays are basically equal because neither is LeBron. Going from $0 to consistently profitable is the hardest jump in trading. You CANNOT just casually make a few grand per month or supplement income part-time. The skill level needed to consistently make ANY AMOUNT trading is the equivalent of being in the league. A trader who can pull $100k a year out of the market is not “kind of good.” They have competency in finding edge, executing trades, handling their psychology and risk management, and are competing in the league. From there, scaling to $300k, $500k, even $1M is usually a function of size, capital, and refinement, not a complete identity shift. But the trader still stuck at breakeven or red? They’re not one tweak away from $100k. They’re not “basically there.” They’re still trying to prove they belong on the court at all. The uncomfortable truth is this: the distance between $0 and $100k is far greater than the distance between $100k and $1M. One requires becoming a professional. The other simply just requires becoming a more refined one. My confidence in taking a trader from $100k to $1m is probably 10x higher than my confidence in taking a trader from $0 to $100k.
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If you come from spot markets (futures) and use volume profile, you’re already thinking in distributions.
Options require the same framework—just formalized.
The mean becomes theoretical price (time, rates, inputs), and standard deviation becomes volatility—the spread of outcomes.
Same game. Deeper layer.
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People think options increase risk, when they’re the only instrument that lets you define it precisely—down to the cent, or eliminate it entirely.
Options aren’t about symmetric outcomes. They’re about selectively owning the right tail.
With multi-leg structures, you’re shaping distributions—not guessing direction.
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@GoshawkTrades What’s the tradeoff you’d say Sierra Charts has?
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5 ways to automate your trading strategies:
1. NinjaTrader: C# (futures focused)
2. MetaTrader 4/5: MQL (forex dominant)
3. Sierra Chart: C++ (great for volume profiles)
4. Python + API: the default (most flexible)
5. DAS API: C# (for small caps)
i've coded across all of them. each has tradeoffs.
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@JonnyRoot_ But whoever denies Me before men, him I will also deny before My Father who is in heaven.
Matthew 10:33
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@ccmembersonly Heavy Weights, Sandlot, Goonies, Star Wars, Lord of the Rings, 3 Ninjas, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (original), Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles the Secret Ooze, Surf Ninjas, Ready Player One
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Bryan Johnson reveals 5-MeO-DMT therapy outperformed every longevity protocol he’s tried
"If I compare my experience with 5-MeO to having a better diet, exercising every day, sleeping well, doing sauna, and hyperbaric oxygen therapy, this was more efficacious than all of them in terms of a reset of me as a human. It’s just incomparable"
"When you sleep well you feel great, when you exercise you feel great, but nothing compares to what 5-MeO did in terms of resetting me as a human"
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Jet suit paramedics can reach the top of Helvellyn in 3.5 minutes instead of 1 hour 15 minutes.
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It’s no wonder some of the greatest traders have competitive/athletic backgrounds or state they train like professional athletes.
• Jim Simons
• Paul Tudor Jones
• Steve Cohen
• @markminervini
Just to name a few
Vince Langman@LangmanVince
We need more coaches like Rick Pitino!
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No trades for me today.
Price below prev day RTH VAL, prior low, and even 5D value low looks like breakdown… but from my experience this is not a signal of clean trend.
You’re in price discovery:
– No agreed value
– Thin liquidity
– Buyers (mean reversion) vs sellers (continuation) both active
– Trapped traders fueling both sides
Result (this is why I tend to sit on my hands with this context): high volatility, low directional efficiency.
Big deltas and large trades ≠ edge here — just participation in a fight.
The real tell:
→ Acceptance (time + volume) = trend
→ No acceptance = chop / rotation back toward value
Outside value isn’t “go time” by default… it’s a question the market hasn’t answered yet. And it’s best to be patient and allow the market to tell you where it’s accepting and where it’s rejecting.
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$ES_F
Back inside last week’s value after that large premarket move — auction reset, not a breakout.
Gamma still positive → expect dealer pinning unless we break levels.
• Spot ~6580 (near HVL 6550, only ~0.15% away)
• 0DTE range: 6900–7000
• 1D exp move: ±0.87% → 6879–7000
Positioning:
• Net GEX: +36M (balanced, slight pin)
• P/C GEX ~1 → symmetric, no strong skew
• IV still low (13.8) → no panic bid
Takeaway:
→ Inside value + positive gamma = mean reversion / chop
→ Only get trend if we escape HVL + break 0DTE walls
Don’t chase — fade extremes until proven otherwise.
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@ninja_maths What would you say a student should know as prerequisites before started this course?
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I'm happy to announce that we've just released a major update to our Mathematics for Machine Learning course!
Here’s a summary of what's new.👇
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@ImreSG It’s the ladder. As someone with a CS background; she should know better.
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Best case scenario: Dunning-Kruxermaxxing
Worst case scenario: intentional fraud
Bruce 0Saurus@Bruce0Saurus
@ImreSG I dont understand can u explain?
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TL;DR:
It’s overfitted.
Use CPCV with purging/embargo — otherwise you’re fitting noise.
High win rate + PF > 8 across TFs (each optimized separately) is a red flag. That’s curve-fitting, not a stable edge.
Even “out-of-sample” can leak in time series.
Test with CPCV across many paths, and focus on robustness > metrics.
If you haven’t already, read Advances in Financial Machine Learning — this is exactly what it addresses.
If you didn’t run much less get good results from CPCV this wouldn’t even make it to a forward testing sim trading phase.
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More Bloop testing results!!
773,393 bars of NQ. Every timeframe optimized independently.
1m - 90.1% win rate
2m - 89.0% win rate
3m - 88.1% win rate
5m - 85.9% win rate
10m - 80.6% win rate
15m - 84.7% win rate
All profit factors above 8.0
All out of sample validated
27 out of 27 months profitable
Thread on how I tested this coming next :))
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$ES_F / $SPX
GEX map into Quad Witching (3/20):
0DTE (Mon 3/16):
– Neg gamma below 6630
– 6600 = key support, 6705 = resistance
→ Expect 2-sided trade
→ LVNs + orderflow confirmation = your edge
→ Fade edges unless acceptance
3/20 (Quad Witching):
– Heavy neg GEX stack
– 6700–6775 = expansion zone
→ Break = go with it (don’t fade)
→ Dealer hedging = momentum fuel
→ Best day for range expansion plays
3/23 (Post-OPEX):
– Positioning clears out
→ Cleaner auction
→ Less chop, better follow-through
→ Shift from scalp → hold runners
3/27:
– Mixed gamma regime
– ~6750 = pivot
→ Above = pin/slow grind
→ Below = faster downside
→ Trade level to level, not bias
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