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Trump's underrated political weakness is poor people.
In our polling, whites making <$25K backed Trump by 26 (!) in 2024. His approval with them now is breakeven.
That's *insane*.
theargumentmag.com/p/trump-is-los…
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Lakshya Jain
78.6K posts
Lakshya Jain
@lxeagle17
a machine learning/software engineer. also political data @TheArgumentMag, co-founder @SplitTicket_, and @cal alum. ✉️ [email protected]. i hate sports
SF Bay Area Beigetreten Temmuz 2017
2.7K Folgt91.7K Follower
@kkondik @lxeagle17 did polling for the The Argument on this topic. They found that there was little to no backlash to the COVID measures. Even school closures found majority support.
theargumentmag.com/p/the-covid-po…
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Fair points, and also why the presence of a Libertarian on the ballot is important
The Mapping Buckeye@Mapping_Buckeye
@LIEngProf @kkondik I can understand why some people think Ohio will go blue- Vivek is uniquely terrible. HOWEVER, the voter base that Vivek is struggling with most ALSO hates Acton because of COVID. Other than one(very, very terrible poll), she has struggled to get within the margin of error of 50%
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Generic is D+7 among registered voters in our survey; D+9 among those who say they'll "probably" or "definitely" vote. I can only speak for our surveys; that's not middling. x.com/james19872002/…
Joe Bidenopoulos@james19872002
@lxeagle17 Why is the GCB so middling for Democrats right now then? Most polls have it in the D +3-5 range
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Electoral environment is going from bad to worse for Republicans in our polling — among enthusiastic voters, the generic is a tick above D+9 in our latest survey, which...that's catastrophic for Republicans.
Like, if that holds, that's where Talarico becomes a near-favorite.
Nate Silver@NateSilver538
Not a huge impact from Iran yet, but a new net low in our Trump approval tracking today fwiw.
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Daniel Biss is *extremely* progressive. I don't think that is the takeaway. Kat's weakness was that while there was an obvious lane for a non-establishment candidate, she simply wasn't from the district.
Given that she literally didn't live in IL-09 until right before the election, she did remarkably well; however, the takeaway here is that another well-funded, anti-establishment progressive with actual district ties may well have beaten Biss, given the split field
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Abughazaleh is getting crushed in the Cook and Lake County suburbs.
Evidence that Mamdani style leftism only has purchase in deep-blue cities and college towns.
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@statindy the split field likely helped Abughazaleh. two well-known candidates (Fine/Biss) splitting the vote like they did is the type of thing that insurgents dream of.
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@lxeagle17 idk she still put up a very respectable performance in spite of millions spent against her incl to prop up a spoiler candidate
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Color me shocked that the Very Online Candidate with no experience and no real campaign strategy beyond "get likes on the internet" ended up losing a Democratic primary to the incumbent mayor of Evanston, Illinois.
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@bigseb31213 "dems attack themselves -> dems are unpopular" is the argument i've seen made by a lot of people on here (including prominent pollsters) but it's an elementary confusion of basic cause-and-effect, and it flips the two.
dems are unpopular, and that's why dems attack each other.
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Reiterating the point - the reason why the Democratic Party is fairly unpopular as an entity is that it sees absolutely relentless negativity particularly from its own side
these are the top two posts on /r/politics, all the comments are saying "don't vote for dems"
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@AlexanderMcCoy4 @TheArgumentMag What exactly is the quibble?
Those who want centrists to win Dem primaries should actually find more unique/authentic centrists like Bobby Pulido and Rebecca Cooke, rather than offering Biden-esque candidates who are old liberals and then expecting a primary win.
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@EricMGarcia I keep thinking back to the idiotic "student loan forgiveness" discourse. There's absolutely no chance that this would have been covered the same way if the median reporter wasn't a downwardly-mobile, college-educated graduate with a boatload of loans to repay.
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@EricMGarcia In a lot of ways, this story illustrates what people hate the most about reporters, where politics is mostly just a card-trading game for reporter access and biases influence coverage immensely. Republican voters saw this years ago, and now Dems have picked up on it too.
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John Boehner used to compare talking to reporters to "feeding the alligators" but said the key was to feed them without getting bit. Biden refused to talk to reporters and they savaged him. Now Trump is calling any and every mainstrea reporter. theatlantic.com/politics/2026/…
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@arachno_commie yeah but Texas is also 12 points more Republican than the nation. I'm not going to sit here and say he's a strong candidate (I expect his WAR to end up around ~D+2 when all is said and done, so below replacement), but you need "catastrophic" to lose Texas.
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@lxeagle17 Great article as always. But I think there is an interesting case for Cornyn being weaker than expected because of his far right pivot this past year to win his primary. Hes running on banning mifepristone! Just an example
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1. Don't count Paxton out, even without a Trump endorsement.
2. IMO, conservatives are underrating the chance Paxton loses to Talarico (roughly 1-in-3), and liberals are overrating the chance of Talarico beating Cornyn.
theargumentmag.com/p/dont-count-k…
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@stogachess @ettingermentum this shows up in polling across the board. the reality is that at the moment, Platner outpolls Mills — in part, swing voters don't know his scandals and find an "anti-establishment" Dem to be appealing.
Platner's support may drop, but Mills is currently polling badly regardless
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@lxeagle17 @ettingermentum are we sure this poll is on the level? Rs deliberately misleading polling to get Crockett to enter the Senate race.
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Maybe the funniest thing about this race (despite the immense competition) is that establishment Dems just chose a straight up shitty candidate lol
Nathan Bernard@nathanTbernard
New Maine Senate race poll from right-leaning group Quantas Insights shows Graham Platner leading Susan Collins by nearly seven points and Janet Mills trailing Collins by a point and a half.
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@Red_Roscoe this is easily reconcilable through realizing 2 things:
1) 90% of congressmembers are more partisan than 90% of their voters are (or just as partisan).
2) the vast majority of GOP congressmembers are specifically scared to cross Trump
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Trump literally tried to kill the Congressional Republicans, and with the exception of one or two outliers like Cheney, NONE of the Republicans endorsed Harris. Not even even the supposedly “reasonable” ones like Pence, Romney and Murkowski.
Lakshya Jain@lxeagle17
There remains this backwards, nihilistic sentiment from the left that "Trump's voters are immovable". They're movable. They just don't think like highly-educated liberals or online right-wing posters. But they move — like now, when 15% of Trump's 2024 voters disapprove of him.
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@JoeySchmittPhD @YouGov @gelliottmorris was this the first question? there's a chance they're doing some research on the types of insincere respondents they get, so they screen out sincere ones instead.
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Election Twitter, what the hell is this from @YouGov?
@lxeagle17 @gelliottmorris, any ideas? A weird weed-out question?
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One problem is that a lot of liberals just create a caricature of Trump voters and try to appeal to that, and when it fails, they think nothing matters.
And that's how you get idiots like Tim Walz and Jasmine Crockett saying that you can't win over the people who voted Trump.
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There remains this backwards, nihilistic sentiment from the left that "Trump's voters are immovable".
They're movable. They just don't think like highly-educated liberals or online right-wing posters. But they move — like now, when 15% of Trump's 2024 voters disapprove of him.
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