Nassau Centrist Mapper

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Nassau Centrist Mapper

Nassau Centrist Mapper

@LIEngProf

English & Film Professor/#Educator/#FilmBuff/Mapmaker: House (specialty), County & Precinct Maps/Proud Long Island #ModerateDem/Dad💙👦🏼👩🏼🚫No DMs

Lynbrook, NY (NY-04) Katılım Ocak 2022
8.5K Takip Edilen11.2K Takipçiler
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Nassau Centrist Mapper
Nassau Centrist Mapper@LIEngProf·
America at 250, Part V - July ‘26 House Predictions These are NOT safe/likely/lean/tilt ratings. They’re based on the predicted vote shares the winning party will receive. Based on a GCB of Dem +5.5, Dems are set to gain only modestly in a sort of “reverse” ‘22 scenario. This is largely due to GOP gains from mid-decade redistricting. BUT, remember that many seats don’t become truly competitive until closer to Election Day, so definitely keep an eye on those light pink/blue seats, or even the slightly darker ones, which could easily turn into sleepers. As usual, a like, repost and/or follow is always appreciated! 🥹 Happy 4th everyone and a Happy 250th Birthday to the USA!! 🇺🇸 🎆💙🎉 Mappers: @MadLibHatter @bluearrowMaps @SageOfTime1 @Thorongil16 @DemHackMaps @JMilesColeman @RJ_maps @cinyc9 @redwoodcntymaps @NinetyDegreeZ @HugeGuilfordCo @tencor_7144 @josh_metcalf @nnjpolitics @Leonz0_o @ModRightMaps
Nassau Centrist Mapper tweet media
Nassau Centrist Mapper@LIEngProf

America at 250, Part IV - 200 Years In Coinciding with Jimmy Carter’s narrow defeat of Gerald Ford, ‘76 marked the last time to date that either party held a 2/3 House majority. Dems achieved this by doing well in the cities, while also maintaining a strong grip on the South - despite significant GOP gains over the preceding decade. Mappers: @MadLibHatter @bluearrowMaps @SageOfTime1 @Thorongil16 @DemHackMaps @JMilesColeman @RJ_maps @cinyc9 @redwoodcntymaps @NinetyDegreeZ @HugeGuilfordCo @tencor_7144 @josh_metcalf @nnjpolitics @Leonz0_o @ModRightMaps

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Shamar
Shamar@CarolinaMapper·
@LIEngProf @ZhouJaron I was 11 when this election occured and I think another reason it was so close was because sheheen was a rare pro gun moderate to conservative democrat before southern whites fully realigned to the gop.
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Jaron Zhou
Jaron Zhou@ZhouJaron·
South Carolina is close enough to be tempting but it is ultimately a pretty inelastic state, more similar to Mississippi than Kansas. Funny enough Dems had their best recent statewide showing during the red wave of 2010 against Nikki Haley in the Governor election.
Jaron Zhou tweet media
Adam Carlson@admcrlsn

Not to go immediately into political operative mode, but national Democrats & major donors should at least kick the tires on putting some weight behind Democratic nominee Annie Andrews in November’s U.S. Senate special election in South Carolina. In 2016, it was closer than Alaska. It has consistently been closer than Nebraska. Democrats have kept it within single digits in two of the last four governor’s races in SC. Hope Republicans nominate an insane person & pray the national wave is blue enough to give Andrews a fighting chance (or at the very least make Republicans spend money defending it).

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Drew Savicki
Drew Savicki@DrewSav·
Lindsey Graham voted to confirm numerous Biden judicial nominees. His successor almost certainly would not vote to confirm a Democratic President's judges. Just look at Tim Scott who regularly voted against nominees Graham supported.
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Tectonicty
Tectonicty@Tectonicty34·
@LIEngProf @earlyvotedata really crazy that within the next 10 years people like Graham, McConnell, Schumer Sanders for example will most likely unfortunately not be here whether we agree with their politics or not the fact that they have been the faces of the political establishment for years RIP
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Nassau Centrist Mapper
Nassau Centrist Mapper@LIEngProf·
@nintendom51192 @Tectonicty34 Party control is irrelevant in this particular case. The only way a city like that could be rejuvenated is through the gentrification process. Many of the current residents would be displaced, but it would be a better place overall. It’s happened in many places here in NY.
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NintendoMaster
NintendoMaster@nintendom51192·
@Tectonicty34 @LIEngProf Hate to tell you this but the only way it’s gonna be a nice place if Republicans get controlled to state legislation and governorship and fix the state and that’s not gonna happen for about almost 50 years probably so eventually you’re right it will it just may be a little longer
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NintendoMaster
NintendoMaster@nintendom51192·
@Tectonicty34 @LIEngProf Thank you I greatly appreciate you putting this in the chat but also seriously it is weird how that seat went blue in 2010 now it’s a very red seat
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NintendoMaster
NintendoMaster@nintendom51192·
@LIEngProf @Tectonicty34 I’m seeing this post is unavailable learn more. I’m just wondering if you guys are also having this problem on your end or somethings wrong with the system for me
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Shamar
Shamar@CarolinaMapper·
@LIEngProf 2018 was the second down ballot realignment that mostly locked out Rs from suburban seats like MN-03 and VA-10 and turned ancestrally highly educated Republican districts like VA-02 into swing districts.
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Nassau Centrist Mapper
Nassau Centrist Mapper@LIEngProf·
Help a mapper out with a like, repost and follow! 🥹😺 Why are we destined to have such narrow House majorities? The 2010 GOP wave/realignment is a major cause. While there’s no doubt Dems were clobbered in ‘10, many of Rs’ gains (a net of 63) came not from blue/swing seats, but through winning seats now essentially out of reach for Dems. Many of these gains came in the South, once a Dem stronghold that had been slowly shifting R for nearly 5 decades, but Rs also picked up rural seats in the NE, Midwest, Plains and the Rockies. Mappers: @MadLibHatter @bluearrowMaps @SageOfTime1 @Thorongil16 @DemHackMaps @JMilesColeman @RJ_maps @cinyc9 @redwoodcntymaps @NinetyDegreeZ @HugeGuilfordCo @tencor_7144 @josh_metcalf @nnjpolitics @Leonz0_o @ModRightMaps
Nassau Centrist Mapper tweet media
Nassau Centrist Mapper@LIEngProf

America at 250, Part V - July ‘26 House Predictions These are NOT safe/likely/lean/tilt ratings. They’re based on the predicted vote shares the winning party will receive. Based on a GCB of Dem +5.5, Dems are set to gain only modestly in a sort of “reverse” ‘22 scenario. This is largely due to GOP gains from mid-decade redistricting. BUT, remember that many seats don’t become truly competitive until closer to Election Day, so definitely keep an eye on those light pink/blue seats, or even the slightly darker ones, which could easily turn into sleepers. As usual, a like, repost and/or follow is always appreciated! 🥹 Happy 4th everyone and a Happy 250th Birthday to the USA!! 🇺🇸 🎆💙🎉 Mappers: @MadLibHatter @bluearrowMaps @SageOfTime1 @Thorongil16 @DemHackMaps @JMilesColeman @RJ_maps @cinyc9 @redwoodcntymaps @NinetyDegreeZ @HugeGuilfordCo @tencor_7144 @josh_metcalf @nnjpolitics @Leonz0_o @ModRightMaps

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Nassau Centrist Mapper
Nassau Centrist Mapper@LIEngProf·
@ardent_guru Those seats had been slowly moving left before the Trump era and accelerated when he ran for president. Those suburban Rs survived mainly through down ballot lag in ‘16, then were wiped out in ‘18.
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ArdentGuru
ArdentGuru@ardent_guru·
@LIEngProf But it feels like GOP was still winning some hardcore suburban seats as late as 2016 that it had no business holding even then either. See say Peter Roskam or Erik Paulsen
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Nassau Centrist Mapper
Nassau Centrist Mapper@LIEngProf·
@elections_w_etn Yup, the last of the Southern Senate Dems were eliminated (not counting the Virginias), and the House seats of Barrow, McIntyre & Rahall all fell too.
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Nassau Centrist Mapper
Nassau Centrist Mapper@LIEngProf·
@CatSplotchy @umichvoter Jackson also has ties to the state’s lumber industry. Hard to avoid it in that part of the state. Plus, I felt lumber and lobsters, ME’s two biggest industries, should be covered. lol
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SweetSplotchyCat
SweetSplotchyCat@CatSplotchy·
@LIEngProf @umichvoter I see boards in the background. Does this mean he somehow also takes over the Collins family lumber business in addition to winning the election?
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Nassau Centrist Mapper
Nassau Centrist Mapper@LIEngProf·
@nintendom51192 @umichvoter I’m old enough to remember Collins putting up blowout margins in her wins, even against good opponents (Allen in the 2008 wave). To see her only get 51% in 2020 convinced me a significant amount of her crossover is gone. My logic is it’s eroded further since.
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Keşfet

@CarolinaMapper @ZhouJaron @DrewSav @DemDeeDee @AlfRomeooo @JamesMaybach69 @Sinfulskin2 @keeshalldaylong