Nassau Centrist Mapper

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Nassau Centrist Mapper

Nassau Centrist Mapper

@LIEngProf

English & Film Professor/#Educator/#FilmBuff/Hobbyist Mapmaker: Threads of Past Elections & State Trends/Proud Long Island #ModerateDem/Dad💙👦🏼👩🏼🚫No DMs

NY-4 Katılım Ocak 2022
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Nassau Centrist Mapper
Nassau Centrist Mapper@LIEngProf·
CORRECTED: ‘26 House Predictions Thanks to those of you who pointed out some of the color code errors I made on the map yesterday. Several of the OH & VA districts were the opposite of what they should’ve been, and I had AZ-02 (not 01) as a Dem pickup.
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Nassau Centrist Mapper@LIEngProf

At long last, the January House predictions!! Based on an environment of D+4 (the rough GCB), I predict that Dems will net 10 seats to bring the House to 225-210 D. Unsurprisingly, the gains for both parties come from swing seats and newly drawn CDs 🤏🏻🧵Considerations & 🔑👇🏻

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The Political Demon
The Political Demon@PoliticalDeamon·
@LIEngProf Really goes to show that the internet & betting cites like Polymarket aren't good indicators on who wins the primary/general.
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J. Miles Coleman
J. Miles Coleman@JMilesColeman·
Adding partisan labels to judicial races screwed Dems in NC over the past few cycles, but labels would probly be helping Dems in these GA races rn.
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Shawn
Shawn@ArcanesDreamer·
@earlyvotedata What the hell is happening in Georgia?!?!?!??
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Nassau Centrist Mapper
Nassau Centrist Mapper@LIEngProf·
@GabrielIacoboni They both have their strengths and they both have their weaknesses. Cornyn has performed marginally better than Paxton, but who knows if it’ll make a difference in this particular race.
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Gabriel Iacoboni
Gabriel Iacoboni@GabrielIacoboni·
@LIEngProf There just isnt much better data Cornyn is a stronger candidate than Paxton. But the electoral zeitgeist just repeats the same ole same ole
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Nassau Centrist Mapper
Nassau Centrist Mapper@LIEngProf·
Well, it seems TX AG Ken Paxton has earned the coveted Trump endorsement, so let’s revisit Paxton’s & John Cornyn’s weakest performances to gauge where they might land. Cornyn’s weakest came in ‘20, winning by 10% while Trump won by 5.5%. Paxton’s was in ‘18, winning by 3.5% while Cruz won reelection by 2.5%. We can conclude that Cornyn does outperform the top of the ticket more than Paxton, but we should also consider environment, opponents and that Paxton has built up more baggage since then. Should be an interesting runoff…
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InteractivePolls@IAPolls2022

🚨 BREAKING: President Trump has endorsed Ken Paxton over John Cornyn in the Texas Senate race.

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NintendoMaster
NintendoMaster@nintendom51192·
@LIEngProf @Tectonicty34 Cool whiskey, Willows and Menonite two of the best bandana Dee is my favorite because he’s the one I got stuck with as a kid playing with. I thought he was cool since he’s an underdog.
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Nassau Centrist Mapper
Nassau Centrist Mapper@LIEngProf·
lol, I’m just playing with you dude. We’ve all had typos, whether it’s voice or direct text. Also, I’m barely a Dem. I’m mainly registered as one so I can vote in the closed primary system here in NY and actually have a say in who gets elected. I enjoy stats and maps but I don’t cheerlead or cope on candidates, polls or results. You’ll always get realistic takes from me.
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NintendoMaster
NintendoMaster@nintendom51192·
@LIEngProf @Tectonicty34 OK, but you’re gonna tell me you’ve never spoken into a mic on your phone and it didn’t type what you wanted to say but also yeah I think that’s like your worst case scenario from you. You’re a moderate Democrat tells me we’ll win it probably.
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Nassau Centrist Mapper
Nassau Centrist Mapper@LIEngProf·
@nintendom51192 @Tectonicty34 The “cat is Coke” line will go down as an all time classic! Seriously though, if I had to put a prediction on a Paxton/Talarico matchup, it would probably look more like Paxton’s ‘18 win, or Cruz’s from the same year.
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NintendoMaster
NintendoMaster@nintendom51192·
@LIEngProf @Tectonicty34 Also, I am using a microphone to speak into on my phone. Why don’t you try sometimes see that it works cause I can tell you it doesn’t always say what you wanna say.
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NintendoMaster
NintendoMaster@nintendom51192·
@Tectonicty34 @LIEngProf This cat is Coke man and let’s be real packed and if his candles are gonna affect him, he would’ve lost reelection in 2022. They’re still gonna vote for him man you gotta stop buying this Dem cope.
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Nassau Centrist Mapper
Nassau Centrist Mapper@LIEngProf·
@CarolinaMapper Yeah, things would have to get pretty bad for Dems to flip it outright, but Paxton would absolutely be working for that victory.
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Shamar
Shamar@CarolinaMapper·
@LIEngProf I could see Texas being Lean R again in November. I don't see Dems being able to flip it though math wise.
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Nassau Centrist Mapper retweetledi
Kalshi Politics
Kalshi Politics@KalshiPolitics·
BREAKING: President Donald Trump endorses Ken Paxton Paxton’s odds skyrocket from 60% -> 90% instantly
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InteractivePolls
InteractivePolls@IAPolls2022·
🚨 BREAKING: President Trump has endorsed Ken Paxton over John Cornyn in the Texas Senate race.
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Nassau Centrist Mapper
Nassau Centrist Mapper@LIEngProf·
Rep Thomas Massie has no better than a 50/50 chance of winning his primary tomorrow, but did you know he had originally won his seat (KY-04) in a special election (and a regular in the same night)? Rep Geoff Davis resigned his seat early and Gov (Steve) Beshear set the special on the same day as the general. ‘12 was also the year Andy Barr (the current GOP frontrunner for Senate this year) won his House seat (KY-06), defeating incumbent Ben Chandler.
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InteractivePolls@IAPolls2022

KY-04 GOP PRIMARY 🟥 Ed Gallrein: 51% 🟪 Thomas Massie: 44% @grayhousepolls | 5/16-17 | 435 LV

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Nassau Centrist Mapper
Nassau Centrist Mapper@LIEngProf·
Yeah, it was widely expected she would retire in ‘24, so Weiner wanted to jump in first. He got out as soon as she announced her reelection, but the damage may have already been done. And I agree, she’s ruthless, which is why I think her and Trump respect one another despite being polar opposites.
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CA ET Nerd
CA ET Nerd@earlyvotedata·
@LIEngProf I didn’t remember that but wouldn’t put it past her. I obviously do not like her but I absolutely respect her ability as a political leader of her party. She is absolutely ruthless
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Charlie002
Charlie002@AFKGuy002·
In the 2026 Republican primary for Indiana's 5th congressional district, incumbent Representative Victoria Spartz won renomination against challenger Scott A. King, though by a closer margin than an incumbent might expect. (1/5)
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Keşfet

@PoliticalDeamon @JMilesColeman @ArcanesDreamer @earlyvotedata @GabrielIacoboni @nintendom51192 @Tectonicty34 @elonmusk