Michael Helm
2.1K posts
Nobody executes a “madman” theory of foreign policy when they’re winning—and Trump’s use of it signals his desperation, @davidfrum argues. theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/04/…
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More Trump drama. It’s always about the ego of the mobster. Ok then. No hyperbolic reaction here. I simply say this: I hope he does it. Withdraw from NATO. Humiliate America. Because that will be the end of the Republican Party. They will splinter and engage in fratricide. They then will get demolished in the midterms and lose in ‘28 as well. When voters see total crazy – and there r signs everywhere, and this could be the icing- they rebel. So go ahead and do it. Sign the death notice for the American empire and American influence. Show yourself to be a true ally of Putin. It’s Putin’s dream for this to occur. That’s the Dem talking point. So I dare ya. Voters will punish the GOP in brutal fashion.
Faytuks Network@FaytuksNetwork
BREAKING: The White House says that Trump has discussed withdrawing from NATO and will discuss it during his meeting with NATO secretary-general Rutte
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@michaeldweiss Designed to show them who's the new boss and persuade them to switch sides?
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Hearing speculation that attacks on Gulf states continue unabated because of iffy command and control and the IRGC not getting the ceasefire memo yet. Maybe. Or maybe Tehran has read Trump's desire to call it a day and is doing this to humiliate the Gulf states, knowing the U.S. won't respond.
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@jmart Those Republicans better start getting in line and doing the dancing for them.
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The Iran wish list posing as a cease-fire deal isn’t going down well with traditional Republicans
“The only reason they’re not dancing in Iran is because they banned dancing,” one senior Republican tells me.
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@michaeldweiss Classic Trump negotiation protocol: the "agreement" is merely the basis for starting the next round of negotiations, to secure what had to be left on the table. I'm surprised tho, thought it was walk-away (bankruptcy) time.
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@atrupar They're all such geniuses. Even the Civil War - he doesn't know about the Union ticket. Medicare, though, he knows a lot about that.
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Rick Scott: "If Democrats were in power when Lincoln allowed Sherman to destroy the south, they would've impeached him. Or when Roosevelt destroyed the infrastructure of Germany, they would've impeached him. Or when Truman used an atomic bomb against bomb, they would've impeached him. These people are insane."
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@merlinreedfield @basshooker2 @RadioFreeTom Remember he's a real estate developer. He thinks he can negotiate himself some good deals in Tehran.
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@basshooker2 @RadioFreeTom “Big money will be made” 🤣. Yeah. By Iran, at the expense of the Gulf and consumers the world over
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"One person familiar with their interactions noted that Trump had a habit of confusing tactical advice from Caine with strategic counsel."
Almost as if Trump didn't understand that operational wins do not automatically mean strategic success.
theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/03/…
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@Mpolymer Or they're just lying and covering themselves - rats leaving sinking ship.
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While it is (at least to me) relatively transparent that Vance (or his people) was behind this leak, the real story is that the entire foreign policy team did not speak out enough in what they all deep down believed was a very significant mistake. Ratcliffe saying the Israeli regime change plan was "farcical" or Rubio saying it's "bullshit" is not at all pushback on the decision to go to war. Caine does not get a pass either. This was a major failure in telling truth to power, and will be studied as such.
Carol Leonnig@CarolLeonnig
This is the detail l I've been looking for-- on. how Trump decided to go to war. And the answer @jonathanvswan and @maggieNYT found was -- not one of his advisers was willing to tell him it was a terrible idea nytimes.com/2026/04/07/us/…
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This morning, I asked President Trump if he’s okay with the Iranians charging a toll for all ships that go through the Strait of Hormuz, he told me there may be a Joint US-Iran venture to charge tolls:
“We’re thinking of doing it as a joint venture. It’s a way of securing it — also securing it from lots of other people.”
“It’s a beautiful thing”
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@slainebro28 @BigTechnoFuture @sentdefender Something puzzles me here. What do you suppose is going to happen between Trump and Netanyahu now?
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@BigTechnoFuture @sentdefender Trump has no reason, but Israel does especially Netanyahu banking his entire career and delay towards his court case.
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From this post it’s pretty clear that tonight’s agreement isn’t just a two-week ceasefire in the eyes of President Trump, but an end to the Iran War.
OSINTdefender@sentdefender
U.S. President Donald J. Trump calls Wednesday a “big day for World Peace!”, following tonight’s announced two-week ceasefire agreement with Iran. Trump states that the United States will assist with the buildup of ships in the Strait of Hormuz and that reconstruction can begin in Iran. The President adds that, “We'll be loading up with supplies of all kinds, and just ‘hangin' around’ in order to make sure that everything goes well. I feel confident that it will. Just like we are experiencing in the U.S., this could be the Golden Age of the Middle East!!!”
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@BigTechnoFuture @sentdefender This is the "bankruptcy" step in his cycle, when a venture goes bad. I am guessing your assessment is going to be the right one.
A "cunning plan" well....
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@sentdefender he is walking away. There is no chance he restarts the war in two weeks no matter what iran does or agrees to.
News cycle moves fast. he is hoping in two weeks people will forget about this war
Disaster. Suez moment for america
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@Acyn He’s reportedly accepting Iran’s 10 point plan that astoundingly gives IRAN control of the Strait. That’s not Iran blinking. It’s Trump surrendering
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@ThompsoncreekW @EdWhelanEPPC It seems to me it worked well for about 15 years, and he finally ran out of runway (suckers) around 2000. Then a few years later, he became a tv star and was brought back up. Although he was never completely ruined.
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@mwhelm @EdWhelanEPPC Nah, it really isn’t. Didn’t work in NY either.
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@RadioFreeTom You were all screaming genocide a minute ago. Now you’re pissed there’s a ceasefire and an open Strait. Make it make sense.
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I'm not crowing TACO because we should all be glad that Trump's backing down after painting himself into a corner. If he needs to make up stories about "double-sided" ceasefires, fine, let him. (By definition, all ceasefires are "double-sided" or they're not a ceasefire). /1
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@RadioFreeTom Yeah. Well. We're likely not done paying for this yet. Although somebody in DC may think so.
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@ThompsoncreekW @EdWhelanEPPC It's definitely a strategy. Why it would work with anyone more than once is a wonder. Maybe in NY real estate circles it would work (it did for a while) as you moved on to new suckers. But where he is now, it's really a small world.
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@mwhelm @EdWhelanEPPC Some, maybe you, think it is a strategy. Mostly he is bad at negotiating and flails around. Always has been.
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@tars75 No it's a strategy - you start with clobbering your opponent (remember the basis is always zero-sum), then a blizzard of lies, if it works the result is the basis for the next round, if it doesn't you go to court (NATO here) or walk. It has worked for him.
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These are tactics, not a strategy...and no, this isn't deliberate from him. He's just really shit at doing it but has managed to convince a surprising amount of people that he isn't for some reason.
Michael Helm@mwhelm
@EdWhelanEPPC It may look like "madman theory" but it's his typical negotiation strategy - norm busting, bullying, and maximum demands, to set the starting point. He's been doing it for a lifetime, so it's built-in. Whether anyone is listening - in this case, prob not.
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@KlaartjeZoetho2 @michaeldweiss I'm not confident. I think he may live forever. That's what Oculus and AI are for.
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@michaeldweiss There will come a day, once, in the future, that not every day will be about Donald Trump anymore. He is mortal after all. It will be a day of liberation celebrated throughout the world. I will not participate to celebrate his death as I am a Christian. But I willbreatmorefreely
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@jbarro Our president has wanted this for a long time. In theory, he has agency. Assuming he's not medically indisposed, but that's another problem.
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The Israelis should be punished for this, and there is no reason for a Democratic presidential candidate to suggest we will lift one fucking finger for them after the shit they have pulled boosting the Republicans and then inducing our idiot president into launching their war
Tim Miller@Timodc
People keep telling me its anti-semitic to say Israel influenced US on Iran war. Now we learn Bibi made a "hard sell" in sit room on 2/11. Think telling people not to believe their eyes will cause more anti-semitism than being honest about Bibi influence. nytimes.com/2026/04/07/us/…
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