Nathaniel Powell

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Nathaniel Powell

Nathaniel Powell

@natkpowell

Undiplomatic Historian--France, Africa, etc., Africa Analyst @oxfordanalytica, Hon. Researcher @CWDlancaster, author of: https://t.co/5JpElLdZTj…

Aberystwyth, Wales Beigetreten Mayıs 2015
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Nathaniel Powell
Nathaniel Powell@natkpowell·
The day is finally here. My amazing wife Aviva Guttmann's new book "Operation Wrath of God," detailing European complicity with Israeli assassination campaigns in the 1970s, is out. Buy it, you won't regret it!
Dr Aviva Guttmann@GuttmannAviva

It is here! It is publication day of my new book about ‘Operation Wrath of God’ - My research reveals for the first time how Western intelligence agencies helped Mossad to hunt and kill Palestinians suspected of involvement in terrorist activities in Europe @cambUP_History

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Policy Tensor
Policy Tensor@policytensor·
There were a lot for fantasizing about using nukes to impose terms in the early days, culminating in the Dulles-Eisenhower massive retaliation doctrine and the idea that they would be treated no differently. These delusions evaporated when Dulles’s nuclear bluff was called in 1954. Soon after Kaufmann shut it all down and bought more seriousness to nuclear weapons policy.
Rosemary Kelanic@RKelanic

Scarily prescient piece by @AKDay89 at @amconmag 👇 “A new rhetorical theme emerged last week, when Trump threatened to bomb Iran ‘back to the Stone Ages.’ The phrase is associated with Curtis LeMay, who served as Air Force chief of staff during the Vietnam war. LeMay is known for something else too: his promotion of nuclear weapons and complaint that Americans had a “phobia” of using them.” theamericanconservative.com/yes-trump-migh…

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Vincent Foucher
Vincent Foucher@VincentFoucher·
Some thoughts on that piece which is doing the rounds, which asserts that the Sahelian Islamic State affiliate, #ISSP, is connecting to Morocco and the West and may pose a growing security threat. I have doubts and questions…
Paweł Wójcik 🦋@SaladinAlDronni

My debut at @ForeignPolicy together with @LucasADWebber. The Islamic State Sahel Threat Is Transnational and expanding. foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/31/isl…

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Nathaniel Powell
Nathaniel Powell@natkpowell·
Poor @amibiaka has amazing patience here arguing with one of the last defenders of World Bank/IMF structural adjustment programs, who of course is a JMU economist (what else).
Amine Idriss@amibiaka

Let me repeat again what I said yesterday: Muhoza and Grier do not prove SAPs “worked.” Muhoza studies trade liberalization in Africa, not SAPs as full programs, and she says the effects on growth “remain ambiguous” and any gains are “conditional on institutional quality.” That is not a verdict of SAP success. Grier & Grier look at fiscal and monetary stabilization in Latin America, not African SAPs, and only at short-run stabilization, not poverty, structural change, or state capacity. The institutions that designed SAPs were blunt about this. The World Bank’s OED found the “link between adjustment lending and improved economic performance is weak” and that “the social costs of adjustment have been higher than anticipated”; by 1992 it still reported “mixed results” and inadequate safety nets. The IMF IEO later found conditionality was “overly ambitious,” ownership “weak,” and consolidation often “too rapid". Easterly found no poverty reduction and evidence of higher inequality. Even Ghana that some people tried to push as an example that worked is overstated: Botchwey said the 1984 rebound reflected recovery from the “extraordinarily low base of 1983”; Teal argued much of it was aid- and recovery-driven, not reform-led. Bottom line: no serious reading of this literature supports the claim that SAPs delivered sustained development.

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Nathaniel Powell
Nathaniel Powell@natkpowell·
@JCourtright08 @tommymiles Last year I finally read Pierre Razoux's book. It's probably the best narrative history out there (in English or French that is).
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James Courtright
James Courtright@JCourtright08·
Any recommendations for great books on Iran - Iraq war (1980s)?
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Nathaniel Powell
Nathaniel Powell@natkpowell·
@policytensor So, the 1954 threats weren't a bluff. The Eisenhower administration made a serious secret offer to the French to use nukes to relieve Dien Bien Phu. But as far as I can tell, either the French turned it down or it otherwise fell through. But the intent was very real.
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Policy Tensor
Policy Tensor@policytensor·
This lobby boy thinks he pulled a slam-and-block. What a fucking moron. Let me tell you about the origin of the idea that nuclear coercion does not work. The year is 1954. Secretary to State Dulles has made some of the most unambiguous threats of nuclear use to deter North Vietnam (and the communist great powers behind it) from destroying the last remaining French position in Indochina at Điện Biên Phủ. The communist called his bluff and destroyed the French portion. The humiliation of the US instantly triggered a major military-intellectual revolution that has been misportrayed by Fred Kaplan. The first and most important critique of Dulles’s failed policy was by WW Kaufmann, the author of US nuclear strategy from 1961 to 1980. Kaufmann argued in effect that nuclear threats cannot be credibly made on sub-strategic questions. He was taken very seriously. But lesser minds confined to put out clever stratagems to make nukes somehow useful. One such case was Henry Kissinger, whose Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy got his tenure at Harvard but was demolished among the informed by no less than Kaufmann himself. Tactical nukes, he argued were not as useful for the defense of Europe as Henry suggested because we would then have to write off West Germany. How does Dr Kissinger propose to keep the Germans in the fold with this policy? Later scholars were more careful. But Max is not a scholar. He’s a pseudo-intellectual with no work to show and who has been propped up by our corrupt media elite. He’s partly responsible for the catastrophes of US foreign policy. We must get rid of him and his whole type in our public sphere if there is to be any hope of reviving the US world position ever.
Policy Tensor tweet media
Policy Tensor@policytensor

You need either a low iq or low integrity to portray an analyst’s risk scenario as a prediction.

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Nathaniel Powell
Nathaniel Powell@natkpowell·
This is a really compelling statement from @sahelblog on the grotesque amorality of Democratic Party "natsec" criticisms of the Iran War. They are laser-focused on strategy and legality, rather than the monstrousness criminality of the act itself. alexthurston.substack.com/p/the-iran-war…
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Nathaniel Powell
Nathaniel Powell@natkpowell·
@tommymiles They've also likely concluded that making a public stink about it would be counterproductive, especially given the state of bilateral ties.
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Nathaniel Powell
Nathaniel Powell@natkpowell·
It's worth noting that during the Chadian-Libyan war of the 1980s, attacking Libyan airbases was a key Chadian objective, and it ultimately helped to cripple Libya's ability to sustain the conflict.
Vincent Foucher@VincentFoucher

Maiduguri airport is an obvious target for #ISWAP. After Niamey and Tahoua, it's clear IS groups are keen on cutting down enemy air capacity. But other than this, I don't see why ISWAP would want to attack Maiduguri now.

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Nathaniel Powell
Nathaniel Powell@natkpowell·
@tommymiles I dunno, I think it's more or less conventional wisdom now that Barkhane was a failure.
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Tommy Miles
Tommy Miles@tommymiles·
The idea that JNIM has expanded because the US & French aren’t in Mali is contradicted by reality. JNIM & other armed groups expanded while these states were “in partnership” with Mali, and since, the Malians have greatly expanded the war, retaking territories not held since 2012
Saheliens@saheliens

#Mali 🇲🇱 🇺🇸 #US | Retour Aérien : Washington Négocie des Survols Antiterroristes au Sahel Les interventions étrangères passées au Sahel, comme l'opération #Barkhane française et la #MINUSMA onusienne, ont échoué à endiguer le jihadisme malgré des années d'engagement, favorisant une dépendance malienne à des partenariats alternatifs comme avec la Russie via #Wagner, perçus comme plus respectueux de la souveraineté. Cette réorientation, suite aux coups d'État de 2020-2021 et aux sanctions occidentales pour liens avec des mercenaires russes, a exacerbé les tensions bilatérales, isolant Bamako et permettant une expansion des groupes affiliés à Al-Qaïda, avec des attaques accrues et des kidnappings, soulignant un vide sécuritaire chronique dû à une coordination régionale défaillante. En "échange", #Washington a levé en février 2026 les sanctions sur trois hauts responsables maliens, dont le ministre de la Défense, comme geste diplomatique pour relancer la coopération, avec des négociations en cours pour autoriser des vols de drones et d'avions de renseignement sur le territoire malien. #Bamako, par la voix de son ministre des Affaires étrangères, insiste sur un partenariat basé sur le respect mutuel et la non-ingérence, visant à monitorer les réseaux jihadistes et potentiellement localiser un pilote américain kidnappé, marquant un pivot #US vers une approche sécuritaire pragmatique au #Sahel.

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Nathaniel Powell
Nathaniel Powell@natkpowell·
@tommymiles Ok but escalating the fighting doesn't (necessarily) mean you're really retaking territory.
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Tommy Miles
Tommy Miles@tommymiles·
@natkpowell Now that is an actual criticism. Nowhere have I said this was the way to win this war (it may be, it may not be). But it is an indication of a huge escalation in *fighting this war*, which previous partners were not particularly focused upon…
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Nathaniel Powell
Nathaniel Powell@natkpowell·
@tommymiles And taking over UN installations meant stretching limited military resources over a much larger (and more sparsely populated) area, and may have entailed a loss of control in some parts of the south.
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Nathaniel Powell
Nathaniel Powell@natkpowell·
@tommymiles It reminds me of the US escalating in Vietnam, setting up dozens of new firebases and claiming this was an indicator of progress.
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david rein
david rein@idavidrein·
Daniel Ellsberg has a fantastic bit of writing about the impact of having access to classified/highly sensitive information on people's epistemics. I think it should be required reading when you join a frontier lab and learn all of the secrets.
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