Patrick Raynaud

@ISU145 How long funds can squeeze commercials ?

Soybean Rally Checklist-Success/Fail tally: 1. China was going to buy another 8mmt above the 12mmt of old crop soybeans: -Fail/ Haven't even started flash sales of 8mmt. 2. Inflationary trade: -Fail/ Federal Reserve leaning towards cutting interest rates because of Crude oil prices. -Brief success, now fail/ Crude oil led the inflationary trade and is dropping now. 3. Inflow of money from Equities into Commodities: - Fail/ Equities going back up strongly, commodities as whole falling. (Look at gold, Crude, and soybeans) 4. Weather in SA - Fail/ majority of crop is huge and intact. Minor drought damage in Argentina. Minimal. 5. Weather in USA -Fail/ Rains have began widespread and look to continue with El Nino pattern. -Fail/ Too early to matter for '26 crop.

@aude_benjamin @KaplanBen_Fr Il faudrait envoyer les grandes cultures se cultiver auprès des sachants des amphis des villes comme Mr Kaplan..

@KaplanBen_Fr Ha bah oui pas pensé. Qu'on est con.

Les agriculteurs vont devoir apprendre à cultiver sans engrais azotés... remplacer les ammonitrates par des légumineuses qui fixent l’azote naturellement et du fumier et du lisier.😬

@X_PhRIS @Sciences_Avenir Salut Philippe, merci pour le conseil. Peux-tu stp citer le modèle optimal pour éviter une recherche infinie ?

@Sciences_Avenir Installez des filtres a osmose inverse. Environ 800€ pour l'installation 100€ par an pour l'entretien. C'est la solution de la station spatiale.

Chaque litre contient entre 110.000 et 370.000 particules ! 😱 👉 l.sciencesetavenir.fr/wRu

@SoyEmaR @emacasanas @AGenomics87988 Hemisferio norte va a reducir plantio de maïs y sprint wheat sin lugar a duda a favor de soja y girasol. Parece tendran oilseeds por un tubo en octubre

@emacasanas @AGenomics87988 Che si, los números no están buenos para hacer un trigo. Los fertis están por las nubes. Y el trigo no vale nada.

Girasol a U$D 390, viene lloviendo bien y en unos días más, la soja ya va a dejar de consumir agua, el precio de la urea vuela y hacer un trigo bueno, va ser caro...permiso para ilusionarme con ver los campos del NEA tapizados con 🌻.

@gaurav_kochar But US farmers will sell expensive old crop soybean to China while Brazilians discount their new crop with no buyers, because amigo Trump tweeted it would happen, 6 weeks ago..

WHO IS WINNING AND WHO IS LOSING THE IRAN WAR Nobody asks this question. Here is the honest answer. 🇺🇸 USA Spent $12 billion in 3 weeks. Fighting alone. Every NATO ally said no. Dollar under attack. Oil above $100. Credibility burning. Score: LOSING 🇮🇷 IRAN Getting bombed but still launching missiles. Has a secret weapons supplier keeping them alive. Just weaponized the Strait of Hormuz. Score: SURVIVING 🇪🇺 EUROPE Watching from the sideline. Oil prices hurting their economies. Quietly moving closer to China. Score: CONFUSED 🇮🇳 INDIA Oil above $100 is painful. But being pushed closer to China's orbit. Score: UNCOMFORTABLE 🇸🇦 SAUDI ARABIA Watching Iran demand yuan payments for Hormuz passage. Thinking about what that means for their own dollar deals. Score: RECONSIDERING 🇯🇵 JAPAN Dependent on Gulf oil. Hormuz blockage is an economic nightmare. Score: SCARED 🇷🇺 RUSSIA Sharing drone tactics and military intelligence with Iran. US distracted. Good for Ukraine war. Score: BENEFITING 🇨🇳 CHINA Zero soldiers deployed. Zero dollars spent. $5 billion in weapons sold to Iran. Cheap Iranian oil flowing in. Yuan being demanded at the world's most important shipping lane. US military stretched. Taiwan window opening. B-2 stealth bombers being tracked by their AI. Score: WINNING EVERYTHING The only country that gains from every single day this war continues is China. This is not a coincidence.

@OilViper @badcharts1 @Mhong421 Exactly, a $200 barrel would simply project occidental and Asia into recession slashing crude oil demand and therefore it price. If people were paid in gold and had good ratio purchase power ok. But that’s not our reality

Patrick I saw your post earlier and the comments. I don't know if you meant it but people are interpreting what you're saying as a values based statement. That there's "nothing wrong with $200 oil." Everyone is attacking you for that statement. However I think you mean "according to the chart there is no reason a $200 oil prediction should be considered outlandish." As in, a $200 oil call is not the boogeyman. Thats much different than saying $200 oil is nothing to be feared economically. I feel like people are misreading you and then you're not communicating well. I agree proces across the board have risen... Absolutely. Oil is relatively cheap, yes... But at this point, with people already struggling, $200 oil would just send the economy spiraling in an accelerated fashion. Thats not to say $200 oil can't happen. The chart seems to hint at it. But I hope I'm explaining what these people are upset about. They don't get the distinction between the "call" and the judgement of whether that's good/bad.

This is the most retarded thing ive seen this month

cash is king, always

@kannbwx @RegionLtd Previous soybean weekly inspections were missed by more than half as you know, and YOY is down by a third… Brazil has a massive crop to sell and shipment it starts in March. I also add seasonals of US bean exports. Good window to price dear farmers, don’t wait much.. my 2 cents

🇺🇸Last week's U.S. corn and soybean export inspections topped all estimates. 65% of the inspected bean volume was to China.

@rusgrain Soybean inspection disappointed with such heretic prices ? Weird, isn’t it ?

🇺🇸#USDA reported strong #export inspections for the week ended Feb 19: #corn reached 2.005 MMT, topping estimates and up from the PW, while #wheat hit 535 KMT, also exceeding forecasts. #Soybeans disappointed at 670 KMT, well under projections and down from 1.215 MMT last week, with over 1/2 going to #China. YTD #maize leads with a 46% YOU gain to an all-time high, wheat up 19%, but soybeans hit a 12-year low, down 32%, as traders eye low corn prices and upcoming sales data - by @grok x.com/i/trending/202…

in case #oatt #soybean

@247dotAg Price action was strong over last 3 sessions. Price extension from its m.a. looks wide.

After last weeks rally in wheat, will there be profit taking into month's end. Wheats are near resistance and too much too fast at this time of year is not usual.

@sizov_andre What’s the logistics premium over more southern region wheat ?

Total Russian #grain and #wheat stocks remain historically high - SovEcon report. Farmers’ sales are also near record levels. This doesn’t sound very bullish. BUT much of the stock is located far from ports, and logistics remain a constraint. Request a trial: sizov.report/reports/28826/… #oatt #sizovreport

@rusgrain US soybean origin share in Indonesia was already 85/90%. Let’s see how wheat plays.

🇮🇩Indonesia's purchases of #soybeans from #US will reach US$685 mn, #wheat - US$1.3 bn, #cotton - US$122 mn, according to #USABC estimates linkedin.com/posts/rusgrain…

@SoybeanTrader88 yep ⬇️

#soybeans #oatt

@lockedlimit indeed

some guys are trying to spin "commodity super-cycle" as if we are back in early 2008... #oatt #commodity #wheat 🤪🤪🤪🤪

@CerfiaFR .

🇺🇸🥤FLASH | "Retour au plastique !" Donald Trump va signer un décret contre la promotion "ridicule" des pailles en papier.

#sugar take short profits & reverse position.

#sugar futures are showing sign of weakness. just saying..

@CNBC sugar did..

Traders got their big-rate-cut wish and markets still couldn't rally cnbc.com/2024/09/18/tra…

@DiveBomb321 Sorry I don’t read all your Posts. Replying on this one because I had already replied 5 days back sharing my vie it should go are 63ish. Only that

@patrickraynaud_ I posted 10 times since that post. Why pick this one?

#OOTT Should I go long for a bounce or wait for <= 68.18?