Il y a encore de belles opportunités sur le marché, surtout dans le secteur des SaaS.
Mes entreprises chou chou : Zeta ($ZETA) et AppLovin ($APP).
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Portefeuille Découvert
4.3K posts
Portefeuille Découvert
@portedecouvert
Blog | Analyse boursière sans filtre | Opinions tranchées sur le marché
Beigetreten Kasım 2025
466 Folgt593 Follower
Meta $META fait partie de mes entreprises chou chou.
Voici mon bear, base et bull case.
Bear case : 16 % / année. EPS CAGR de 18 % et P/E de 22x.
Base case : 20,2 % / année. EPS CAGR de 20 % et P/E de 22x.
Bull case : 25,4 % / année. EPS CAGR de 22 % et P/E de 25x.
Sachant que Meta prévoit une croissance annuelle moyenne des bénéfices par action de 21,8 % entre 2026 et 2029. Également, le P/E moyen des 5 dernières années est de 26x.
Je crois fortement que mon bull case est réalisable étant donné que j'ai inscrit des chiffres conservateurs.
Je suis très très bullish sur Zuck. 🚀
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SpaceX $SPCX est en hausse de plus de 40 % depuis son IPO.
Mais il ne faut pas oublier une chose :
Seulement 4 % du supply est disponible au grand public.
J’ai bien hâte de voir le prix de l’action dans quelques mois.
Prochaine date à surveiller : le 11 août.
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@crypt0_n0va la croissance ne sera pas toujours linéaire pour $SPCX
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SpaceX a surpassé Amazon en termes de capitalisation boursière, devenant ainsi la 5e plus grande entreprise au monde en matière de valeur boursière.
Valorisation de SpaceX : 2,5 billions $
Valorisation d’Amazon : 2,56 billions $
Revenus de SpaceX : 18 milliards $
Revenus d’Amazon : 742,78 milliards $
Selon moi, la correction va être brutale dans quelques mois.
Voyons ce que l’avenir nous réserve !
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ZETA ANALYSIS
$ZETA represents 17% of my portfolio.
why ?
Zeta turns profitable this year. For a company growing this fast, 50% yoy last quarter, that's the kind of inflection point that tends to re-rate a stock hard.
The people saying AI will replace Zeta are missing the point entirely. Zeta is AI. Their platform, the Zeta Data Cloud, sits on one of the largest proprietary consumer data assets in the world, 240M+ Americans, billions of behavioral signals processed in real time. You don't replace that with ChatGPT. You can't replicate it overnight. That's the moat.
The 6:1 ROI speaks for itself. Customers spend $1 on Zeta and get $6 back in measurable return. That's not a product you churn off of.
And the OpenAI partnership isn't a press release, it's Zeta embedding the best models available directly into advertising operations, making the platform smarter with every dollar that flows through it.
FWD P/E 20.3×
PEG at 0.77.
FCF yield of 4.4%.
FCF margin expanding.
SBC declining.
Weighted return: 16.9%/yr with a 20% margin of safety.
This one feels early. Really early.
Not financial advice. DYOR.
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AMAZON ANALYSIS
$AMZN represents 18% of my portfolio
why?
AWS is reaccelerating, robotics is just starting to flow into margins and the advertising segment is growing at a pace most people still haven't fully priced in.
Ads is quietly becoming one of the highest-margin businesses Amazon runs and the market treats it like an afterthought.
The moat here is unlike almost anything else. Amazon is embedded in daily life in a way that's hard to replicate: Prime membership, Music, Pharmacy, Fresh, Kindle, Audible, Ring, Alexa, and Clinic.
That's not a company that's infrastructure.
Profitability is improving quarter after quarter. Gross margins expanding, SBC declining, FCF building as the CapEx cycle matures.
The numbers aren't there yet on FCF, but the direction is clear and the operating leverage is real.
At current multiples :
FWD P/E 28.6× vs a 36x average
EV/EBITDA 15.3× vs a 20.6× average, P/S 2.7× vs 3.5× historical
this looks like a business trading at a discount to what it's becoming, not what it is today.
Weighted return: 14.1%/yr with a 20% margin of safety baked in.
Not financial advice. DYOR.
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@033Stocker that is not really a problem. Great video tho.
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@miloinvests But here's the problem — unlike Google or Microsoft,
Meta has NO cloud business to monetize it.
100% of revenue still comes from ads and Gadgets
If things go as planned, then $1200ish by end of 2027
youtu.be/drXcbi1WFkI
YouTube
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META ANALYSIS:
$META represents 24% of my portfolio.
why ?
The valuation doesn’t really match the growth profile here. I honestly struggle to build a convincing bear case.
With 3.5B daily active users, Meta sits on one of the strongest attention moats in history, full stop.
And the monetization story is still compounding. Subscriptions are scaling, WhatsApp is finally starting to contribute in a real way, and ARPP is growing at a 13.5% CAGR, with signs it could accelerate from here.
Yet you’re getting all of this at:
18x forward earnings
PEG < 0.80
On top of that, you still get a fortress balance sheet.
On a 5 year view, that setup points to something like ~17.9% annualized returns. And that is while being really conservative.
The one thing I’m watching is SBC. It’s gone from 17% → 22% of revenue over the last 3 years. Not ideal, but not thesis breaking.
And
I don’t care about Capex
Not financial advice. DYOR.
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𝙋𝙊𝙍𝙏𝙁𝙊𝙇𝙄𝙊 𝙐𝙋𝘿𝘼𝙏𝙀 June
Milo YTD: 25.28%
S&P500 YTD: +8.34%
NASDAQ YTD: +16.3%
TSX YTD: +8.24%
TOTAL RETURNS (Jan 2026)
Milo’s portfolio: +25.28%
S&P500: +8.34%
NASDAQ: +16.3%
TSX: +8.24%
MY POSITIONS:
25.79% | Meta Platforms $META
19.17% | Zeta Global Holding $ZETA
16.19% | Amazon $AMZN
13.11% | VanEck Semiconductors $SMH
11.62% | Vanguard FTSE ETF $VCN
8.91% | Celsius Holding $CELH
5.08% | Nbius Group $NBIS
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
𝘐'𝘮 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘴𝘰𝘳 and all the 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘥 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦.
Lietuvių
𝙋𝙊𝙍𝙏𝙁𝙊𝙇𝙄𝙊 𝙐𝙋𝘿𝘼𝙏𝙀
Milo YTD: 25.28%
S&P500 YTD: +8.34%
NASDAQ YTD: +16.3%
TSX YTD: +8.24%
TOTAL RETURNS (Jan 2026)
Milo’s portfolio: +25.28%
S&P500: +8.34%
NASDAQ: +16.3%
TSX: +8.24%
MY POSITIONS:
25.79% | Meta Platforms $META
19.17% | Zeta Global Holding $ZETA
16.19% | Amazon $AMZN
13.11% | VanEck Semiconductors $SMH
11.62% | Vanguard FTSE ETF $VCN
8.91% | Celsius Holding $CELH
5.08% | Nbius Group $NBIS
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
𝘐'𝘮 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘴𝘰𝘳 and all the 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘥 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦.
Lietuvių
$NU is quietly one of the most undervalued stocks on the market right now.
Fwd PE of 12.9
PEG of 0.3
Revenue growth in 2026: 24%
EPS growth in 2026: 32%
That math does not make sense. In a good way.
Currently in my watchlist.
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Mastercard $MA base case is really simple.
FCF growth : 16%
P/FCF : 24.3x (current)
In 5 years :
Stock price: $1012
annual return : 16%
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@CarsonTalkMoney i will be reducing my $SMH position, but certainty not to buy Space X.
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I feel like a lot of people are going to sell $SMH and Semi names to buy into Space X
They need to get the money from somewhere, and I doubt people sitting in money markets are selling to buy this IPO
Is anyone selling stocks to buy SpaceX? I'm 100% not touching it!
I already don't understand $TSLA evaluation, I think this will be similar
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If Anthropic and SpaceX both go public this year, pay attention to what that tells you about the market.
Companies don’t choose their IPO timing randomly. They go public when:
— Valuations are at a peak and they can raise maximum capital
— Investor appetite is strong enough to absorb massive offerings
— Insiders and early backers want liquidity at the best possible price.
Anthropic is valued around 600B. SpaceX north of 1.6T.
That is exactly the kind of signal that should make you pause. When the two most hyped private companies in the world decide now is the time to sell shares to the public, they are essentially telling you the market is high.
They know something.
The concern is simple. Both would likely be added to major indices like the Nasdaq 100.
That forces index funds to buy them automatically, pushing out other companies and reshuffling billions in capital.
I am not saying sell everything. I am saying be aware of what is happening around you.
The best businesses go public when it is good for them.
Not necessarily when it is good for you.
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@TheRonnieVShow also, $ZETA stock was at $15 not long ago.
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@CarsonTalkMoney Man, I am so bullish on $META. It represents 25% now of my portfolio and still don’t think i own enough! What % of your portfolio does Meta represent?
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$META is up over 3% today!
Here’s the two things they announced today
1) They won a lawsuit in the EU
- This gets rid of some restrictions and will save them $780 million in fines
2) They are now selling AI agents
- This is what Wall Street wants, they want them to diversify their revenue through selling AI or AI compute
Both of these are causing the stock to finally have a green candle
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@CarsonTalkMoney $ZETA is getting destroy today, but i’m fine with it ! The stock was $15 not long ago !
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@PSInvestor idk how the market will react. Will it dump ?
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$SPCX IPO: targeting $1.8 TRILLION valuation — the largest in history.
Elon Musk could become the world’s first trillionaire as soon as next week.
10 senior Trump officials hold up to $44M in SpaceX/xAI stakes.
SpaceX is already a $4B government contractor pricing at $135/share to raise $75B.
Biggest wealth-creation event in history.
IPO Newsroom@IPONewsroom_
ELON MUSK COULD BECOME THE WORLD'S FIRST TRILLIONAIRE AS SOON AS NEXT WEEK The SpaceX IPO is targeting a valuation of $1.8 trillion, per Bloomberg. It would be the largest IPO in history. But the more striking part is buried in the financial disclosures. 10 senior Trump administration officials own SpaceX or xAI stock, with combined holdings ranging from $9.9M to $43.8M: - Paul McInerny, DOI Chief Information Officer: $5M-$25M (former SpaceX engineer, largest stake) - Steve Witkoff, Special Envoy: $1M-$5M via 3G Investors LLC - Kelly Loeffler, SBA Administrator: $1M-$5M in xAI via Valor Equity - Michael Lynch, GSA Deputy Administrator: $500K-$1M - Stacey Feinberg, Ambassador to Luxembourg: $500K-$1M in xAI - Ambassadors to Ireland, Czech Republic, and Portugal also reported stakes Kevin Warsh, who replaced Jerome Powell as Fed Chair last month, had to divest his SpaceX exposure through a Duquesne Family Office fund before taking the role. SpaceX is also a major government contractor: $4B in federal transactions in fiscal 2025, plus $6.5B in new Space Force contracts last month. Reuters previously reported SpaceX is seeking $135 a share to raise as much as $75B.
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