Steve
9.4K posts
Steve
@stevethunder16
Tech guy, 15+ years market experience, share my thoughts here
Canada Beigetreten Şubat 2016
7.5K Folgt882 Follower
Space theme - strong Stage 2 continuation leaders
Higher highs + higher lows, holding key MAs. Pullbacks getting bought.
$LUNR $RKLB $BKSY $FLY
Venu@Venu_7_
space theme is setting up for a bigger move weekly charts + SpaceX $2T IPO + clear accumulation across names something is cooking here $LUNR $RKLB $BKSY $FLY
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IRAN'S TOP NEGOTIATOR QALIBAF TELLS STATE TV: WE HAVE HAD PROGRESS IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE U.S. BUT THERE IS STILL A BIG DISTANCE
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Steve retweetet
Could the S&P 500 go down 20%?
Anything is possible, but looking at the other 11 bear markets since the S&P 500 became 500 stocks shows that they usually start with a quick drop from ATHs.
In fact, down 5% in only 14.5 days on avg those times.
The recent 5% mild pullback took a very long 35 trading days, which would by far be the most ever should this turn into a bear market.
Shoutout to the OG @StovallCFRA for pointing this out today.
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$ASTS
Tested the support trendline -
- Sept 25
- Nov 25
- Mar 26
And now that trendline has made a strong confluence with our demand level.
Hold above $79, then $100 and $110 is next.
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Steve retweetet
Everyone’s waiting for the SpaceX IPO.
The real trade is already happening.
This isn’t one company. It’s an entire supply chain getting repriced.
Look at the stack:
Materials → $MP $AA $FCX
Chips & electronics → $NVDA $AVGO $ADI $STM
Components → $TDY $APH $HON
Launch & defense → $LMT $NOC $RKLB $BA
Satellites & data → $ASTS $IRDM $GSAT $PL
This is the space economy in motion.
Rockets get the headlines.
Infrastructure gets the money.
By the time SpaceX goes public, most of these names will already be well into their move.
Don’t chase the IPO.
Own the ecosystem.
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It has gone from $4.30 to $6.80, but it will go to $60+
$NIO is the stock to buy for 2026.
I was trying to warn you guys to buy.
The thesis was so simple:
They'd flip towards profitability.
And now, if you check their financials, you'll see this:
- Gross Margins -> Increasing
- Total Revenue -> Increasing
- Gross Profit -> Increasing
- Operating Income -> Increasing
Yet, they are still worth less than they were when they were unprofitable, had lower revenue, and worse cars.
It's only a matter of time for this turn-around company to go sky high.
Don't worry, it is not too late to buy.
- con
Con@__Con_
$NIO: This is all consolidation before sending higher. Once we get the next earnings report of profitability, that's when we send higher. Until then, block out the noise. Few...
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过去一周美股涨太快，CTA都还没来得及上车。高盛本次完善的CTA估算核心数据（数据截至2026年4月13日），高盛模型显示：
上周CTA已买入约190亿美元美股，当前CTA在标普500上仍持有约300亿美元空仓，本周预计的买入将平掉这些空仓并翻多（flip to long）。
未来一周买入预计（所有情景均为买入，且规模创历史次高/纪录级）：
1）持平情景：美股买入约435亿美元（其中标普500及相关ETF约340亿美元）
2）上涨情景：美股买入约436亿美元（标普500集中约340亿美元）
3）下跌情景：美股买入约299亿美元（标普500仍为净买入）
未来一个买入预计（同样全情景偏多）：
持平：美股买入约610亿美元
上涨：美股买入约660亿美元
下跌：美股小幅卖出仅约7.61亿美元（几乎可忽略，标普500仍维持净买入）
高盛本次“完善”主要是基于最新价格走势，近期市场从伊朗冲突等事件导致的回调中反弹后，CTA的动量信号已全部转正（短期阈值>6713、中期>6734、长期>6400），当前SPX约在679-680附近，这触发了大规模买入信号。
所有动量阈值已转正，使得此前可能存在的卖出情景大幅减少甚至消失，转为全情景买入。这与3-4月初部分时段CTA仍可能净卖出的情况形成鲜明对比。
CTA是啥？
CTA是采用趋势跟踪（momentum-based）策略的量化/系统性基金，主要通过期货市场（包括股指期货如S&P 500 E-mini）进行交易。它们不依赖基本面，而是根据价格突破短期、中期、长期移动平均线或动量阈值来自动加仓或减仓。
高盛的FICC & Equities Division Futures Strats Group有一个专有模型，能实时估算CTA的当前仓位和未来资金流向（flows），这是市场重要的技术面/机械性买盘或卖盘指标，常能放大市场趋势或提供支撑/压力。
这批机械性买入是“无脑买盘”（不管基本面，只跟趋势），将为标普500提供显著上行动力，尤其在当前市场已从近期低点反弹、接近历史高位之际。Neil Sethi等分析师指出，这批资金流“从Q1的净卖方全面转为Q2净买方”，可能放大任何正面催化剂。
qinbafrank@qinbafrank
3号space里提到很多个股已经进入了高性价比区间，已经在买了； 8号聊到，“春劫行情”告以段落，以打促谈、有条件媾合是大概率的。川普还有个时间的约束限制，往后市场也会看到这一点、战争本身对市场的影响开始变小。 也说到了个人看好的相关板块。 可以顺着这条推文的引用一直能看到2月初最早聊“春劫行情”的所有逻辑。 算不算有始有终了😎
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@AvKeepitsimple For sure, the "Glue" of AI: If NVIDIA makes the "brain" (GPU), Astera Labs makes the "nervous system" that connects everything together.
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@stevethunder16 Concur on $be $nvda and $crdo; not so sure about $alab
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This is the most ridiculous chart in the history of the SPX.
10% in 8 days to *higher* than when the missiles began.
W a 130 pt gap.
Ironically it's a reason always sell rips: you are always given a chance to get back in and can make up *months* and *years* of returns in 10 days
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$CRWV $NBIS Monster move in two days
TraderGoku@tradergokux
$CRWV 周五放历史最大单日成交量突破下降趋势线。 去年这家公司因为极高的客户集中度（65%收入来自微软）和超高的债务水平引发市场对风险的担忧。但随着过去几个月越来越多的大额巨头订单落地：OPEN AI, $META, Anthropic等，风险看起来正在分散。 与此同时，GPU 租用价格持续上涨，整个板块也已经盘整数月之久: $NBIS $IREN $CIFR $WULF $HUT $CORZ 我继续看好两只龙头 $CRWV $NBIS 在接下来几周继续引领 Neocloud 板块的上涨趋势。
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