Con@__Con_
People are going to hate me for this:
But now is not the time to buy $NBIS.
I do think it's worth selling here. Let me explain why:
1) $NBIS operates in the AI data center / GPU cloud hosting layer ofc. Basically, selling compute capacity. This segment is becoming increasingly crowded and competitive:
- Hyperscalers ($GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT, $META, etc.) are aggressively building their own internal capacity at massive scale.
- Multiple specialized neoclouds and traditional providers are chasing the same constrained resources (power, land, GPUs, and interconnection).
- As capacity comes online across the industry, utilization rates and pricing power can compress for pure hosting plays.
2) $NBIS has outlined multi-GW data center buildout plans. This creates elevated binary risks:
- Power procurement and grid interconnection delays (a major industry bottleneck).
- Construction and permitting timelines.
- Actual customer utilization ramp after facilities come online.
- High ongoing capex intensity to stay competitive.
3) $NBIS has geopolitical risk (origin overhang):
- As a carve out from Yandex, $NBIS carries residual geopolitical perception risk (Russian origins, sanctions history), which can affect trust and long-term contracts with Western hyperscalers: Even as it focuses on US/Europe assets.
4) $NBIS valuation seems pretty high here:
- In Q1 2026 earnings were decent. Revenue $399M (strong beat, massive YoY growth) and narrower EPS loss than expected. But it's still unprofitable.
- They have crazy 2026 guidance ($3B–$3.4B+ revenue/ARR range discussed) which seems pretty aggressive and requires close to flawless execution on new capacity imo.
- Insane Trailing Multiples: TTM P/S: 80x, EV/Revenue (TTM): 77x, Trailing P/E: 102–108x (on $2.60–2.92 EPS). Even high-growth AI names rarely sustain 50x+ trailing sales for long without massive profitability or clear path to it.
- Still Losing Money on a Normalized/Operating Basis:
Operating income TTM: –$619M (op margin deeply negative), EBITDA TTM: –$38.6M, normalized net income is negative; the big positive GAAP net income ($817M TTM / $621M in Q1) is also heavily boosted by unusual/one-time items (likely spin-off gains, investments, or fair value adjustments from the Yandex restructuring).
- Forward P/S on Guided Revenue Is Still Premium (22x). At $71B mkt cap and $3.2B midpoint FY2026 guidance -> 22x forward sales. This is pretty crazy.
5) $NBIS technical analysis wise looks massively overbought):
- We seem to be hitting the top of the 5 wave (out of the 1-2-3-4-5) on the HTF. On the LTF, we also seem to be hitting the wave 5, adding confluence to this resistance area.
- We ran through the 1.618 level and 2.618 level showing a high sign of aggressive buying. Now we're at the 3.618 level, which means very aggressive buying has just occured.
This is why, overall, I'm bearish $NBIS.
"What are some other names worth buying then, and what should be my game plan?"
I gotchu.
$OPTX, $ASYS, and $SHMD are 3 great stocks.
It's worth buying these right now imo.
It's just not worth the risk holding $NBIS here, compared to them.
Now, I don't fully dislike $NBIS (for a couple reasons), so here's how I'm going to play this out though:
I'm going to sell my shares here (that I bought at 90). If $NBIS goes to 310, then uses the 3.618 level as support, then I will look to get in again, because that means we're going fully parabolic.
It would mean losing a 5% move to the upside, on the potential of a large 20% move downward.
That's why I'm doing this.
Hope this makes sense on what I'm doing, and why.
Of course, there are counter takes to these arguments (I'm not denying that). But, it's all about if those counterarguments make more sense.
Right now, it seems we are very overbought, with a very high valuation.
If we continue to run, and this "bubble" continues to grow, I'd happily join that (after losing out on a 5% run lol).
If you enjoyed, pls lmk your guys' thoughts.
And if you have any other sort of reasoning you guys want to come to me with, feel free to comment it below (I try to read everyone's comments, and respond ofc).
Just my 2c and what I'm doing here.
