@GavMcCracken Gavin, you are one of the best, please stop reposting fake stuff from this guy (literally everything he posts is fake...). Kaz only banned refined products export (in 2025 already), so no oil export ban and nothing new
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stja42860
374 posts
@stja42860 Not a different conclusion per se, but China inventories have been flat to up since the crisis began. Also, China demand can fluctuate significantly in the near term which offsets against RoW inventories.
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@GavMcCracken @DarioCpx What the administration achieved with their constant misinformation and rug pulling is that no financial investor dares to hold longs with leverage. What they also achieved is that US futures oil market is damaged for good…FAFO
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Literally pinned at ~88$ since 10 hours now - truly incredible
JustDario 🏊♂️@DarioCpx
If you wonder why oil futures aren’t trading at a much higher level already but instead it looks like they stalled at 88$, the reason is a horde of people trying to defend their shorts 👇🏻
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@DeepDishEnjoyer Looks like they were really prepared for round 2, they even discussed who would be going...
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@citrinowicz What outcome could be accepted by both Trump and a Vahadi figure for example? Hardliners were deeply unhappy with last round. The negotiation team will have less wriggle room this time
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President Trump’s willingness to pursue a meeting with the Iranian delegation, even while seemingly overlooking Iranian ceasefire violations, reflects his basic preference to achieve a peaceful solution.
The core problem, however, remains unchanged: the gap between the parties on the key substantive issues is still wide. That reality will make any meaningful agreement difficult to achieve. Moreover, Trump’s threats are unlikely to shift Iran’s strategic position.
If an agreement is to be reached, mediators will need to show real creativity, potentially by pursuing a framework agreement.
The U.S. administration should also recognize a hard truth: what was not achieved during 40 days of conflict is unlikely to be secured through threats or unilateral moves.
The risk is clear. If diplomacy fails, particularly under continued U.S. pressure on Iran and in the absence of a credible alternative deterrent
then escalation becomes increasingly likely.
We are approaching a decisive moment(again).
#IranWar
Barak Ravid@BarakRavid
🚨🚨Trump on Truth Social: Iran decided to fire bullets yesterday in the Strait of Hormuz — A Total Violation of our Ceasefire Agreement! Many of them were aimed at a French Ship, and a Freighter from the United Kingdom. That wasn’t nice, was it? My Representatives are going to Islamabad, Pakistan — They will be there tomorrow evening, for Negotiations. Iran recently announced that they were closing the Strait, which is strange, because our BLOCKADE has already closed it. They’re helping us without knowing, and they are the ones that lose with the closed passage, $500 Million Dollars a day! The United States loses nothing. In fact, many Ships are headed, right now, to the U.S., Texas, Louisiana, and Alaska, to load up, compliments of the IRGC, always wanting to be “the tough guy!” We’re offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran. NO MORE MR. NICE GUY! They’ll come down fast, they’ll come down easy and, if they don’t take the DEAL, it will be my Honor to do what has to be done, which should have been done to Iran, by other Presidents, for the last 47 years. IT’S TIME FOR THE IRAN KILLING MACHINE TO END!
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Qalibaf is in leader mode.
He stresses that wide gaps separate the US and Iran, and that the war may resume.
But this interview also offered a (careful) defense of why negotiations are preferable to a return to war.
The regime needs to keep the hardline base on its side. It also needs to find a way to reach an agreement with a US president who seems compelled to frame any deal as a capitulation--which the regime and its base cannot accept.
It's up to Qalibaf to thread the needle.
Finally, be conscious of his role--he is the bridge between the guards and the political elite. This interview was an expression of a united position, following a public spat between the IRGC and the foreign minister.
خبرگزاری تسنیم@Tasnimnews_Fa
📹 رئیس مجلس: مردم خودشان مبعوث شدند، امام و امت شدند و خدا آنها را هدایت کرد همیشه امام کبیر و امام شهید ما میگفتند فکر نکنید انقلاب متکی به ماست این انقلاب متکی به خدا و ملت است و در نبود ما نیز کارها پیش میرود
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@Bogachan_1971 The ones behind trump are MJT and Thomas Massie implying maga left behind. Behind Xi are putin and modi supporting him in trade war. The blue fist is in shackles, I think martial law maybe.
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The blue fist represent this the democrats take over at 11 o'clock... November
Tanker sending missiles represent weaponisation of tankers... might also mean using tankers as decoy in coming operations.
Arabs and #Zelensky at 2 o'clock, shows they are the first losers.
The cable between the brain and the game control shows the delay between reality and response in Iran War.
Modi behind #Trump shakinh shows stupidy of #India under Modi as seen again today.
You see Trump by himself... whereas Xi with other leaders... like now.
The war will last until 8 o'clock... August... with market going down as seen between Trump and Xi.
It was "delay" at the center... that was the most imporant thing about Economist 2026.
They have to tell you what they will do to you... this is their stupid religion.
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And now I'm almost all in. I either am proven right and have a > +1000% 2026 performance, or I'm bankrupted.
That's the bet.
M N@no1goyim
@GavMcCracken Crazy how you just refused to not follow the price action for like two weeks straight You’ve got fanatic conviction
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@EconstratPB The religious and cultural part is really not discussed enough. Martyrdom and fighting oppression is THE central theological pillar of Shiism since martyrdom of Imam Hussain 680AD. Everything happening now tightens their narrative
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What gets lost is that this is not an argument with a regime.
It’s an argument with ideology.
A belief system.
People throughout history are known for dying for their belief system and don’t care about wut gun you hold to their head.
That nihilism is lost here.
Javier Blas@JavierBlas
The key known unknown (to me) to analyse oil is the true state of the Iranian economy: jobs and inflation. I hear lots of tales, but I have little confidence on any. Reporting from inside Iran is extremely difficult. Economic damage is key for Iran’s incentive to compromise.
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@EconstratPB 100% this! Also the utility functions for economic pain are completely different. The mullahs are fighting for survival in a totalitarian system, while trump has to worry about gas prices in a mid-term year. The only true security guarantee for Iran is heavy US economic pain
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@briangobosox @sidprabhu Maybe they care less about economic disruption...different utility functions...
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@sidprabhu Their "military sovereignty" has proven a mirage. All Iran has as a deterrent is a threat of economic disruption that will prove far more painful to them than to the U.S.
Trump has called their bluff on that. Time to fold.
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If you give Trump something now he will give you something later. He’s definitely a trustworthy counterparty. You’d be crazy not to give up military sovereignty for this promise of money in the future from Trump.
Brian McCarthy@briangobosox
This is the pitch, and Iran would be crazy not to take the deal.
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@Amena__Bakr They need to roll their front month future shorts! They won‘t do it on a loss…
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@BarakRavid LOL, you are the worst market pumper, its ridiculous...
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🚨בכיר אמריקני אומר לי: "המגעים בין ארה״ב לבין איראן נמשכים גם כעת ויש התקדמות בניסיון להגיע להסכם"
Barak Ravid@BarakRavid
עברית
This took off unnecessarily, and now I have a responsibility to clarify. All I meant was: 1) The proposal centered on Iran giving up its nuclear program -- that we knew from Vice President JD Vance on Sunday. 2) It's still a possibility that Iran could accept that point. None of this is new (which is why I haven't published anything on it.)
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Iranian officials are still considering the US proposal to end the war, centered around giving up uranium enrichment.
One thing affecting why Iran couldn’t make a deal while US was in Islamabad: while Vance called Trump 6+ times, Iranians could not call their final decision-maker back in Tehran due to security risks — and likely would have had to return home to discuss an agreement in person, a Pakistani analyst told me.
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@eliant_capital „The announcement does not mean Qatar has full freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical maritime chokepoint.“
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Iran’s leverage seems to be slowly and continuously shrinking
Al Jazeera English@AJEnglish
BREAKING: Qatar’s Ministry of Transport says maritime navigation will resume “for all types of maritime vessels and ships” from 6am-6pm local time (03:00-15:00 GMT) on Sunday. 🔴 LIVE updates: aje.news/85uupi
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@EconstratPB „The announcement does not mean Qatar has full freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical maritime chokepoint.“
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@blondesnmoney Thinking it through that would mean all in on treasuries?
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@donnelly_brent Why does everyone on twitter think he has to emphasise his distaste for Biden before daring to criticise trump? Really sad where we are…
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Friday Speedrun time.
War is not a joke, and I understand that real mothers and fathers are out there mourning dead sons and daughters. Honestly, I would rather not write about war and its effects on markets because I think the whole thing is gross. But this is my job, so I carry on.
Same deal with politics. I hate it. I dislike almost every U.S. politician on both sides equally. But normally I can quietly ignore all the political idiocy and hypocrisy in my writing because it doesn’t leak into the world of markets. In a sane world, good government works like a good referee: present, enforcing the rules, but invisible.
Bad, self-important showboat referees and umpires make themselves the center of the game. The current government is the biggest, most interventionist, and most publicity-seeking of my lifetime and is constantly intervening in markets via direct state intervention or random policy shocks. So as much as I would prefer not to write about government, politics, or war, I don’t have a choice.
My only other option would be to move to Maine and write novels—but I’m not quite ready to do that yet. Soon, but not yet. So while it often sounds like I am anti-Trump… Really, I am anti-big government, anti-war, and anti-politics. I hated Biden’s 2021 pile-on fiscal stimulus, and I hate the relentless government interventions in 2025/2026.
I am an equal opportunity hater of big government.
Anyway, here you go. It's always free...
spectramarkets.com/amfx/hormuz-co…
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