Sapien

🚨 Plot twist: The Internet is evolving without us Web1: Machine-to-machine Web2: Human chatter Web3: AI agents running the show

Mini-Thread: Cycle Thoughts 🧵 "Is this cycle over?!?" Well... I certainly don't think so :) First of all... our high so far is $3.9T overall crypto market cap, so that would be a mere 30% gain over the peak of last cycle, which was $3.0T overall crypto market cap... So... if somehow things went drastically wrong and we stayed down for the next two years I don't even know if you could call this a cycle... merely a little echo boom or something... But that is not what I think is going to happen anyway :) It seems to me that we are just seeing a little macro-induced blip, just like we have over and over again the last few years... The $DXY (ie US dollar index) and the 10 year (ie 10 year duration US Treasury Note ie US government bond) have been surging and that pushes stonks and crypto down and makes things harder on the rest of the world and starts sending all the economies of the US' allies into danger territory... Next the Fed and Treasury will tweak some levers like they have over and over again the last 2.5 years every time this happens, and then things will get back to normal. Only thing that could make this instance slightly different is that we're in the middle of the Biden > Trump transition... Correspondingly we're seeing Bessent take over for Yellen as Treasury Secretary (Powell stays in place over at the Fed because the logistics are a bit different with that position)... So... this macro-induced blip could take a little longer to play out... but ultimately I think the outcome will be the same, they'll shift up issuance a bit or change some bizarre esoteric policy detail or create some new acronym program and then things will go right back to normal... "Will this cycle look just like last cycle?!?" This is a fascinating question... Crypto has basically seen three cycles so far of huge, relatively quick run-ups... followed by swift crashes... followed by multi-year bear markets... We all tend to act like this is the only thing that can happen, but really I don't see why that has to be the case... I DO think its possible that crypto- as a totally permissionless market- tends to see an organic boom/bust cycle, which may mirror a pattern seen in all markets going back all throughout history... So perhaps, everything else being equal, in a vacuum, we would see these four year cycles play out the same over and over... However... in this current reality we're living in, crypto is increasingly tied to global liquidity flows, and passive investment flows in the US now that the ETF's are live, and as a result it seems rational to expect it to be less and less idiosyncratic and more tied to what are ultimately political decisions by the Fed and Treasury and US government (and other governments and central banks and etc)... As a result, I don't see why we couldn't hypothetically witness all sorts of weird scenarios over the next few years... We could see crypto go up 50% per year every year for the next four years... with many dips like this along the way... or we could see a flat year then a 100% gain then another flat year then another 100% again... etc... Also as stablecoins become a bigger and bigger part of the economy that introduces another factor that is somewhat independent of pure speculative cyclicality... Conclusion: Its impossible to know how all this stuff plays out... but I have more conviction in the long-term success of crypto than I ever have before... I think it is almost a foregone conclusion at this point that the entire global economy moves onto blockchain rails over the next 30 years... And therefore unless you are a short-term trader, the real question becomes how best to bet on that long-term adoption. Similarly, we know Trump likes high stock prices and it appears his attitude towards crypto prices will be the same going forward... and we know he favors economic growth even at the risk of a bit more inflation... so that suggests the next four years - no matter how rocky month to month- should be bullish for our magic internet coins overall... So, as always, keep putting in the reps bros, and if you are in the trenches doing day-to-day trading, perhaps have some long-term bags you don't touch to help with preserving peace of mind amidst these temporary blips 💪

@rektdiomedes Degen genes runs strong in the family 🫡 also with these farmer-carry stats, no one can say you don't have diamond hands

Gm my bros - Did this week's Achilles in honor of my grandfather 💪 A great big hulking gigachad with a 19 inch neck who I have always felt inspired to try to emulate :) He died long before I was born, but my dad would always tell me stories about him, and they made a marked impact on me growing up... He was quite old when my dad was born, and in turn my dad was quite old when I was born... so... even though I'm only in my 30's, my grandpa was actually born in the 1890's, as weird as that sounds :) He grew up as a Scandinavian-American farm boy from Minnesota, and when WWI started he was drafted, but apparently got sent to Oregon to cut down trees rather than to Europe if I understand correctly. After WWI was over he became a professional gambler, and would ride the trains all over the country just continually playing poker, and my dad had all sorts of wild stories of this period from my grandpa that he would tell me... After that he ended up in a rowdy little mining town in the rocky mountains working as a bouncer/manager dude in some casino, then later owned a similar casino himself. This was the same town my dad grew up in, and he would always tell me how my grandpa was famous throughout the community for his extreme strength, and his prowess in physical altercations as a bouncer. Hearing these stories over and over had a huge effect on me as a kid, and were one of the main things which inspired me to start lifting weights as a teenager :) Once again, I never met him, but I like to think that when my short time on this earth is over I will see him in Valhalla, along with all the rest of my ancestors 💪 ... As always... 70 weighted 70 lb pullups + two mile farmers-carry'ing of two 70 lb dumbbells while wearing 70 lb backpack - time: two hours and fifty-eight minutes

TLDR: Alt season is seasonal. It happens Q1 and Q2 each bullish year.

@rektdiomedes channeling my room-temperature IQ left curve self, I'm thinking: if Gold did $10T with ETF bid, Bitcoin can do it too. TardFi chasing Stablecoins profits will build all the infrastructure and legal BS frameworks to transact and make crypto ownership mainstream along the way

@thecryptosapien I used to be a bit more skeptical regarding super high $BTC valuations but I have really changed my mind as there's a lot of very powerful people that are wildly pro Bitcoin nowadays and I think 300k $BTC is very possible in next 5 years...

if my friend Diomedes is right, $300k Bitcoin is Totally within reach! Here’s the math: 📊 $206B in stablecoins currently = ~6% dominance (DefiLlama) 💡 If stablecoins hit $1T, with same 6% dominance, that's total crypto market = ~$17T With 40% BTC dominance (conservative assumption), that’s a $6.75T BTC market cap = $300k per BTC 🔥 Not so far-fetched, right?

@rektdiomedes @Rabby_io @phantom @DefiLlama @CoWSwap @vertex_protocol @HyperliquidX @beefyfinance @BungeeExchange @LunarCrush or anything for something for Sentiment analysis? thanks for sharing btw!

My most used products in 2024 relating to crypto/etc: - @Rabby_io wallet - @phantom wallet - @DefiLlama tools + dex aggregator - @CoWSwap swaps/etc - @vertex_protocol perps + yield - @HyperliquidX perps + yield - @beefyfinance yield aggregator/autocompounder - @BungeeExchange bridge - @JumperExchange bridge - @coinbase cex + on/off ramp - @coingecko - @GeckoTerminal - Twitter - TG - Unterstack - Excel - ProtonVPN - MysteriumVPN

"To learn, wander. To achieve, focus." -@JamesClear I chose to wander in a focused area.

SUMMARY OF FED CHAIR POWELL'S STATEMENT (12/18/24): 1. Inflation is "much closer" to 2% Fed target 2. Activity in the housing market has been weak 3. Wage growth in the United States has eased 4. Labor market is not a source of inflation pressures 5. Fed can be more cautious in reducing interest rates 6. Inflation expectations remains "well anchored" The "Fed pivot" is taking another pause.

@rektdiomedes @_kaitoai Grabbing this Crypto x AI bull by the horns!

@thecryptosapien @_kaitoai LFG man 💪🤝

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Now is the time to use all the shilling skills you learned on CT: Shill Trump to your undecided friends

Everything changes, but nothing changes. They all print, print and print.

Pretty big spread now between the FF target and the 2-year yield.

@welikejpegs Brilliant analysis! Would love to run the same analysis when Bitcoin is trending up vs. ranging. I bet rugs are going to be similar in frequency but expected returns may be better spray and pray. Either way, using the criteria you mentioned will be +EV for sure!

Takeaways -Selecting a coin at random was a -EV strategy -Trying random coin selection at lower timeframes is also -EV, and you're just adding more random trials to your sample of bets... given the high probability of a rug (80% drawdown), you're likely to kneecap yourself if you don't know something special about the coin before taking a random bet... since stop losses are largely impractical for smallcaps. -You drastically reduce your odds of a rug drawdown by sticking to coins with $10m+ mcap. But the caveat is that the coin should be at least 48h old. I've seen honeypot coins with high mcap rug before, even though none are in this sample. Also make sure liquidity is locked with a ratio of at least 5% LP/FDV if you don't know the coin. -If you see a coin is advertised... run... unless you know something special about that coin. They tend to fare poorly. -Despite the massive amount of volatility that sucks you into the mkt... these microcaps are on average 70% off of their high watermark (ath) price 24h after a random snapshot. You're unlikely catch and hold a runup. -Coins leave the trending list quickly. Only 10% of trending coins that existed for less than a week survived on the trending list for 24 hours. They fall into obscurity very quickly, so greater fools can't find your coin. -All in all, playing the game of sourcing coins from the DexScreener trending list is a bad strategy... because the selection algo is backward looking, and gamed by fake volume or advertising. So stay away even if you are bored or tempted. -You're better off mining social media, your trusted network, or avoiding this game altogether, unless you're treating your bankroll as an entertainment budget. Above is some data to back up what you already knew intuitively. Caveat Emptor.

Here are the empirical results of how the top 30 trending DexScreener coins fared between 7/10 and 7/11. Snapshots taken at approximately 00:30 GMT. Below I'll add commentary and charts with conclusions that are easier to digest. This is simply the raw data I compiled:

wen $SOL ETF?

Spring Cleaning: Now is the time to look at your portfolio and take accountability. Anything that corrected too deeply and is still hanging near the lows must go. These will likely continue to bleed as long as #Bitcoin is going sideways. You'll thank yourself in 3 to 6 months.

Once #Bitcoin block reward is halved, a lot of barely profitable miners needing to constantly sell their rewards to survive will close shop. Remaining miners will be in a stronger position. As a result I believe that would diminish the daily sell pressure as stronger miners don't need to sell all their $BTC rewards to keep the lights on.