Johnny Johnson

@HedgieMarkets You're being way too nice. SpaceX revenue in 2025 was reported to be $19B. TSMC with a comparable valuation of $1.79T had a 2025 revenue of... $122B 😂 And now SpaceX even got saddled with the toxic asset called xAI which lost $1.5B a quarter last year.

🦔SpaceX has confidentially filed for an IPO targeting a June listing that could raise up to $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion, potentially the largest public offering in history. The company is considering a dual-class share structure giving insiders extra voting power and may allocate up to 20% to retail investors. Starlink generates the majority of SpaceX's profits. SpaceX and Tesla recently announced Terafab, a joint semiconductor venture targeting chips for autonomous vehicles and orbital data centers. My Take SpaceX is a genuinely impressive business. Starlink has real revenue, real subscribers, and a defensible position in satellite internet nobody else is close to matching at scale. The rocket business has an effective monopoly on launch. Those are real assets and real cash flows, which puts this in a completely different category from most of the AI infrastructure IPOs being discussed right now. The $1.75 trillion valuation is where I'm focusing mostly. Orbital data centers are speculative. The Terafab semiconductor venture is early stage. The Mars mission pivot to the Moon happened specifically because Mars was too hard to sell to investors. Musk owning 42% with a dual-class structure means public shareholders get the financial exposure with limited governance input. SpaceX's core business probably justifies a very large valuation. Whether it justifies $1.75 trillion depends entirely on which parts of the story you believe and which parts are being priced in before they exist. Hedgie🤗

@mypreciousilver Isn't this simply the ETF management fee of 0.50%?

💸 SLV dilution Here you can see the dilution over time, when owning SLV. When you buy you get paper silver that is fully backed by physical silver (at least in theory), but the dilution on the chart is what you lose over time as a long-term investor. Not much, but banks are experts at making money on small numbers, and I just want to show how they slowly drain your claim on physical silver.

@DarioCpx At this point I'm only waiting for him to launch his Substack.

BREAKING: we now have confirmation we are living in a simulation

@HedgieMarkets Thank you for educating the masses, who all seem to think this was a huge deal 🙏

🦔Claude Code's source code leaked today via a map file left exposed in Anthropic's npm registry, revealing most of the codebase including internal structure, commands, and tooling. The underlying Claude models were not exposed. Claude Code makes API calls to Anthropic's hosted models which remain closed. It was the only major AI coding tool that wasn't open source, unlike OpenAI's Codex and Google's Gemini CLI. My Take The image says it all honestly. AI writes 100% of Anthropic's code, and then Anthropic's coding tool leaks through their own package registry. Whether the irony is lost on anyone there is unclear. The leak itself is more embarrassing than damaging. The model didn't leak, just the tooling layer, and there are open source alternatives anyway. But this is the second operational security issue in a week from Anthropic after the CMS misconfiguration that exposed internal documents including an unreleased model. For a company that publishes more on careful, responsible deployment than almost anyone in the space, two operational security incidents in a week is a conversation they probably weren't planning to have publicly. Hedgie🤗

@clary_co „High information, low processing“…

I’m not sure this war has improved my views of the efficient-market hypothesis.

They only use Claude Code because a) it‘s the current hype b) Claude models are currently the best for coding, which has nothing to do with Claude Code itself c) IT IS HEAVILY SUBSIDIZED. Once people have to start paying something closer to the real cost, they will drop Claude Code faster than you can look

@Rouge_Encore @themightyjohnny @DarioCpx @opencode if it’s way better than no one would use claude code the market decides what is the best

Anthropic can kiss goodbye to any remote chance it had to IPO

@loporium @treenochh @DarioCpx The only „moat“ is the name recognition. Claude Code is not some unique piece of technology. It‘s as much of a commodity as LLMs themselves.

@themightyjohnny @treenochh @DarioCpx No it’s not. Claude code is literally what made Anthropic popular. Their model is great but so are GPT and Gemini pro models. But Claude Code encapsulated all of that into a terminal that does everything

@citrinowicz How would China offer security guarantees? I can't imagine they'd be willing to go to war with the US and Israel to defend Iran in case of another attack?

There are several key questions regarding the current situation. If the answer to them is affirmative, this could signal a meaningful development: 1. Would China be willing to act as a guarantor for a potential ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, and has Iran in fact requested such a role? 2. Is this development coordinated with the U.S. administration, and does it reflect support from Washington? 3. Would a scenario in which Iran allows freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, but imposes transit fees, be considered acceptable from a U.S. perspective in other words, would this still qualify as “open straits”? In any case, if this initiative has received U.S. approval, it likely reflects a recognition in Washington that Iran will not agree to the full set of 15 demands. Negotiating under fire remains inherently difficult, and the issue of the Strait of Hormuz, particularly as a mechanism for de-escalation poses a significant strategic challenge. Against this backdrop, internal debates within Iran have reportedly sharpened. President Pezeshkian appears increasingly concerned about the risk of a severe economic downturn given Iran’s current trajectory and the likely post-conflict outlook. If the framework were to include Chinese guarantees, implicit recognition of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, and a mechanism allowing Iran to generate revenue from maritime transit, Tehran’s strategic dilemma would likely intensify. Iran does not seek an open-ended war, but it does aim to reshape the post-conflict strategic environment. An arrangement of this kind, particularly with Chinese backing, could appeal to at least some factions within the regime. #iran

@SafetyCapz @edzitron No, Claude Code basically just calls the Claude API, and the API manages the usage limits. Same for DDOS. The Claude API is public and well documented, anyone could have tried to DDOS it without having to know the Claude Code source code.

@themightyjohnny @edzitron But does this introduce access to vulnerabilities? For example, are usage limits front end? Can you skip the part related to fees? Could this open up DDOS attacks where people spam requests?

@limegpt @treenochh @DarioCpx The code was already easy to reverse-engineer before the leak since it's in Javascript. And it's not a very complicated piece of software, Claude Code is a basic CLI tool that orchestrates LLM API calls.

@treenochh @themightyjohnny @DarioCpx Chinese companies probably found this months ago since they already made clones

@treenochh @DarioCpx Claude Code is just a small LLM wrapper in the end, it's not a real moat lol. There are already tons of open source projects that do the same, like Cline CLI or Kilo Code CLI. And you could already use other models with Claude Code before via a simple proxy.

@themightyjohnny @DarioCpx i mean yeah? but now anyone can take this impl and call their own models (open source is only ~6 months behind) claude code was going to be their biggest moat (since ai models will soon become commoditized due to open source catching up)

@100percentMint @edzitron OK. I'm muting you now.

@themightyjohnny @edzitron You daft, or what?

@100percentMint @edzitron What the fuck are you talking about

@themightyjohnny @edzitron Yeah, „full British Airways UI codebase got accidentally pushed out to public, but who cares right, the booking system is intact” No big deal huh

@Ubertag90210 @DarioCpx He thought the leak was the "code" for the actual Claude LLM

@DarioCpx This would prevent their IPO why exactly? Seriously, what does this have to do with their IPO?

@AJ_Trades77 @yieldsearcher Bangor Air National Guard Base is a United States Air National Guard base located on the grounds of Bangor International Airport in Bangor, Maine.

@yieldsearcher Bangor Air Base is not a thing in the US lol...there is a civilian Bangor Airport. Been there many times.

Who do you believe? WSJ or OSINT?

@ChristophFaar @ekwufinance It‘s actually included with „others“. It‘s not directly an oil product, but the impact will of course be huge

@ekwufinance Fertilizer followed by the food it grows somehow didn't make the list

If the strait stays closed for too long, these items will be in short supply.

@BevRoseMilt @WarMonitor3 Yes 😂 It‘s in Morón de la Frontera

@WarMonitor3 Is it really called the "moron" air base??

Spanish defence minster has just confirmed this, saying American aircraft involved in operations against Iran are banned from Spanish bases and airspace, including strategically significant moron airbase.

@WarMonitor3 TIL there actually is a moron airbase 😂