Will Laurance

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@JamieBonkiewicz Any mispriced @Kalshi bets to place?

I’ll save you some time on the Iran address: • It’s Biden’s fault • 48 hours • Two weeks • Some incoherent gibberish • We’ve won • We are way ahead of schedule • It’s a little excursion • We have obliterated them • We’ve knocked out all their ships • I could open up the Strait of Hormuz • Go get your own oil • They gave us a present • NATO are cowards • Something about Nuclear weapons • Allies are useless • We need allies • Nobody’s ever seen anything like it • Fake news • DEMOCRATS • Obama • More gibberish • I know more than the generals • Greatest foreign policy ever Am I missing anything?

@oriental_ghost Thanks Bai! 谢谢

April 1, 2026, the PM markets data in China. The silver inventory of SHFE has significantly dropped today.

It can be an end to the war, a ground invasion or launching a shitcoin. You just never know

@TheMetalCharts Can we pls not do April fools on metal related content? 😆

🚨 BREAKING 🚨 The Chinese government has banned all silver exports indefinitely and announced that they will pay $150 per ounce on all imports SHFE and SGE silver prices immediately spiked to $150 on the news!

@taylorkenneyitm Unfortunately it’s 100% possible 😂

🚨BREAKING: CME Group eliminates paper silver contracts, moves to 100% physical settlement only.

@RockstarGames Is GTA6 out yet?

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@MisterUppy I think you forgot to switch to your other account @MisterSlammy

I sold all of my gold and silver. The bull run is over.

@MindMathMoney @minenergybiz Intern forgot to update the deck

@minenergybiz $4,500 gold in 2026 dropping to $1,500 by 2027. Barrick basically assuming a 67% crash in their own product. Either they know something nobody else does, or these assumptions haven't been updated since the last cycle. Betting on the latter.

Barrick Mining's key outlook assumptions for the gold price in 2027-2028 are fun 🤪 $B

@GrainStats Surprised they don’t have a CDN

USDA didn’t have the planting report on the website until 10 seconds after release but the website was still crashing and not letting anyone get the data because of capacity issues the report was definitely available, but first come first serve - so we will just hit the USDA 1000’s of times per millisecond next time because apparently others are doing it and no one is getting busted for it 🤷

@saylor Right to jail

You weren’t meant to live an uncomfortable life. $STRC

🌮 anyone?

BREAKING: Trump has told aides he is willing to 'end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed', according to Wall Street Journal report.

@WifeFinance @_falsi1ke Maybe for you 😜

@_falsi1ke Prenuptial agreements

Name a huge scam.

@_falsi1ke Taxes

The market is beginning to understand This is bullish for almost all commodities

@GrainStats Make Ag Great Again!

war in Iran has got the marginal investor/trader/policy maker interested in grain markets again hasn’t been this way since 2021-2023 when it was renewable policy (biofuels, net zero), drought (Argentina and US to a lesser degree), and Food Crisis (Ukraine-Russia War on Wheat+Corn Exports) don’t expect them to leave anytime soon

@leadlagreport This tweet is either on point or missing some punctuation 😀

I was about to sleep but wanted to say before I do that for the record fuck Lindsey Graham goodnight

@EnergyPeddler When in doubt read the futures contracts details people

Alright, I’m going to settle this as someone who has sold and hedged many barrels of crude oil, and been a market maker for others who have done the same. Physical crude sales are linked to a benchmark. Could be NYMEX WTI, ICE Brent, Dated Brent, MEH, Dubai, Oman, whatever. You pay or get paid that index price, plus adders of some kind (shipping, marketing fee, quality diff, etc). But at least like 95% of what you pay/ get paid is going to be the index price. You don’t do correlation analysis nonsense in choosing which index to hedge. You use the index to which your phys sales are tied to hedge. So if you’re an Asia refiner, you don’t just decide to start hedging Brent even though you have a supply agreement with a seller to whom you have to pay Dubai. As John put it, you hedge the exposure you have. Now if you want to adjust your purchase contracts to Brent, you can probably do that, but you’re going to pay out the ass for transportation, which will be included as a cost in your marketing agreement. The huge spread in Dubai/Brent was likely mostly a function of cost of transportation and that it takes time to move barrels from the North Sea to the Gulf/Asia. Now that a few weeks have gone by, supplies from the North Sea have arrived in Asia, and low and behold, spot prices in the Gulf have come in to reflect less acute local scarcity, while Brent prices have moved up to reflect the demand supplies are getting from Asia. It’s not some wonky derivative trading nonsense. It is purely basic physical supply and demand at work.

@LukeGromen @thebrouss @TMTLongShort They prefer soft power. It speaks for itself.

@thebrouss @TMTLongShort Why do you say China can’t project power when China is the only nation that can sail thru Hormuz for the past 3 weeks? Power doesn’t have to be screamed about to be projected.

The longer oil prices stay elevated the more valuable liquidity becomes. Don’t forget who provides swap lines. Bessent is going to be the grim reaper with a big fat “get fucked” button on his desk. It’s called manufacturing leverage.

@PaulGoldEagle Gold will hit 10,000

🚨 Predictions… U.S. will declare victory over Iran. U.S. will open the Straight of Hormuz, Oil will drop to around $60/barrel. The Dow will surpass 50,000. The S&P 500 will surpass 7,500. Interest rates fall. The 10 year interest rates also will fall. Unemployment will drop. Republicans win mid terms. All according to plan… H/T Scott Bales