alotta thinking

@TheWalrus83 @Dovydas44444 @LightSparkle8 Yeah and such stuff CAN cause a regime change but there are probably more examples where it didn't and Iran seems to be one of the latter since they got rid of their most determined opposition through force.

@Dovydas44444 @AlottaThinking @LightSparkle8 Even if it's 30% effective (I think it's higher) that adds enormous pressure to a country that had to slaughter ~30,000 people just months ago due to poor economic conditions.

In 20 consecutive sanctions packages that 🇪🇺EU has issued against Russia over the 🇺🇦Ukraine invasion, 🇨🇳China has not formally opposed any (albeit has complained informally). But China is now officially opposing 🇺🇸US sanctions over Iran’s oil. Is that a sign that the sanctions against 🇮🇷Iran are: A) More painful for China in practice; B) Easier to rally against politically over the globe; C) Other?

@TheWalrus83 @jdevere74 @Dovydas44444 @Maks_NAFO_FELLA What if America had 1 percentage point lower growth per year since 1980? It would be much richer than Mexico which is not that poor compared to America in the 19th century.

@AlottaThinking @jdevere74 @Dovydas44444 @Maks_NAFO_FELLA Not every country is ruled by someone who cares about improving the lives of its people. Not every sanction is meant to collapse a regime. Sanctions do have devastating long term effects though. Just 1% less a year over the long term is devastating.

@TheWalrus83 @jdevere74 @Dovydas44444 @Maks_NAFO_FELLA You tell me, why hasn't Cuba Iran Russia reacted in the same way as China? Are they better at avoiding pointless rhetoric or might there something else be behind it?

@AlottaThinking @jdevere74 @Dovydas44444 @Maks_NAFO_FELLA I'm correcting someone, not trying to prove a point. You don't have a choice whether you abide by sanctions or not. Those entities are blocked. If you could just ignore sanctions, why hasn't Cuba or Iran or Russian energy firms just ignored them?

@TheWalrus83 @LightSparkle8 @Dovydas44444 We haven't tried to open the strait either, simply bc we don't need it either. It seems the only economies and citizens who could be needing it are the ones affected by the oil price which rumours have is global and not local and not regional. North Korea is still bleeding out.

@AlottaThinking @LightSparkle8 @Dovydas44444 We haven't tried to open the strait militarily, because we don't need it. You do. We are blockading access to Iran's ports now. The likely outcome as they bleed out, is that Hormuz WILL in fact be opened due to the navy. But the blockade is being done for a larger deal not hormuz

@TheWalrus83 @Dovydas44444 @LightSparkle8 I see. But all of this can be in parallel with the US economy declining and doesn't have to be the root cause.

@Dovydas44444 @AlottaThinking @LightSparkle8 China's $1t surplus is forcing $1t of debt or unemployment onto the west, just so they can soften the blow of their housing bubble collapse and inability to generate consumption. And it's driven by their industrial policy, not free or fair trade.

@TheWalrus83 @LightSparkle8 @Dovydas44444 Ok let's settle for Europeans lack the specific capability to support the US who lack the capability to open the Strait of Hormuz.

@AlottaThinking @LightSparkle8 @Dovydas44444 He knew there was no capability of any European nations to help. That was one of the points he was making. It proved: (1) Europeans lack capability (2) cannot protect their own interests (3) are obstructionist liabilities and not useful allies (4) justified our Greenland concerns

@TheWalrus83 @LightSparkle8 @Dovydas44444 True. But the only country with the least amount of protecionism is always the lone dominant power. Until it declines and starts up increasingly a bit of protecionism again or as well.

@AlottaThinking @LightSparkle8 @Dovydas44444 It's the natural reaction of any country. Rather than make painful decisions (like less social safety net) receding countries create policies that prop up exports to make up for weak demand, and tariffs are the inevitable result. Economists have said this for a century.

@TheWalrus83 @LightSparkle8 @Dovydas44444 I'm not talking about the US in the 40s obv. Trump has repeatedly asked allies around the globe to help. He tried to bs them into it but everyone saw through it ofc. Everything is clear and obvious only Trump and some fans think it's not.

@AlottaThinking @LightSparkle8 @Dovydas44444 Not willing to lose soldiers is the same calc Japan made. It's wrong. We are pragmatic about losses. It's not that we need help, but we don't need obstructionists who block base and air use, while demanding our military serves their interests.

@TheWalrus83 @LightSparkle8 @Dovydas44444 Ofc. But on the other side some protectionism has been the recurring mainstay of every region or nation or country. Superpowers step out of that for some time but always find their way or are forced back to it. That's a history pattern simply.

@AlottaThinking @LightSparkle8 @Dovydas44444 The US isn't becoming protectionist, it's reacting to industrial policies in demographically collapsing countries who are exporting their weak domestic demand onto the US by subsidizing their industries. Look at Germany's trade balance before and after 2003. Look at China today.

@TheWalrus83 @LightSparkle8 @Dovydas44444 A superpower that's unwilling to lose soldiers will not keep most of its power most likely. The US never needed anyone helping them and therefore received willing allies. Now they act differently.

@AlottaThinking @LightSparkle8 @Dovydas44444 I think this is the benevolent superpower waking up to restore some order in a world where the west is being threatened globally, and in doing so, it's realigning its alliances and supply chains to ensure we ally with useful and capable countries, not ones that are liabilities.

@TheWalrus83 @LightSparkle8 @Dovydas44444 I'm just saying the US is a major power and maybe will stay THE major power but at the same time they have started to think in a protectionism way and historically we all know what that can mean.

@LightSparkle8 @AlottaThinking @Dovydas44444 The point of sanctions is to punish those 5 companies, but in doing so, it forces any company doing business with them to pick choose between: 1) other suppliers 2) continuing dealing with them and lose US dollar access.

@TheWalrus83 @jdevere74 @Dovydas44444 @Maks_NAFO_FELLA If everything is so clear and simple and the US can just do and dominate everything globally as it pleases then why are you even trying to convince people it can?

@jdevere74 @Dovydas44444 @Maks_NAFO_FELLA Better call the int'l law police then! China can't decide what sanctions to abide by. The companies are blocked from the $ network and any company who deals with them, and none will, lose the same access.

@TheWalrus83 @Dovydas44444 Wake up man. These are Chinese companies. Who are they gonna pick?

@Dovydas44444 European sanctions have been weak and incremental. That's why we're on #20. American sanctions directly targeted refineries that processed Iranian oil. China can't oppose sanctions with anything other than words. Sanctioned companies will have to pick between China and the US

@Nonamerandomo @WarMonitor3 Personal gain that will look like betrayal to his supporters for the rest of his life is not gonna be much of personal gain.

@WarMonitor3 We all know whats gonna happen, trump will choose the options that is most beneficial to him personally. I.e hes gonna say "weve won" and then he will choose to close the oil market to exports and will crater the global economy. thats the only way out, that leads to personal gain

Iranian officials believe they have boxed Washington in to either choose between a costly military operation or a bad deal.

@WarMonitor3 Because China and the US are better overall and offer many more well-paid jobs per capita.

Why are economies like Britain and German struggling so much for growth and cost of living crisis?

@Nirvz_nada @WarMonitor3 He won't let you hit.

@WarMonitor3 One way or the other Putin is done playing with his food (insane that west couldn't see he was INTENTIONALLY dragging this out) and will actually hurt Ukraine. European retards still helping Ukraine better hope it's Ukraine he's gonna hurt...

Ukrainian military sources beleive their is a possibility Russia is preparing for the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons on Ukraine low yield attacks on frontline areas-General Roman Kostenko

@MartinEdCos @WarMonitor3 Affordability, Epstein Files, lost Iran War, how is this benefitting

@WarMonitor3 Why did Merz make that mindless comment about the US, knowing it could lead to serious consequences? Can EU politicians do anything besides talking? Trump also says wild things, but at least he follows with serious, impactful actions overall benefiting our coubntry.

Looks like there is a serious diplomatic falling out going on between Germany and the US over Merz recent comments on the Iran war.

@realDMOR Well his reason for voicing this view or reality can be caused by anything. I surely don't know. Maybe he explains something to Trump. Maybe he plans on increasing oil production. Maybe not at all.

@AlottaThinking x.com/i/status/20504…

#ExxonMobil and #Chevron are resisting Trump's pressure to increase oil production. What are the reasons?

@WarMonitor3 final nail in the coffin

Zack Polanski the leader of the British Green party is totally unfit to rule this country, he has 0 qualifications to be PM and is proposing dangerous open door border policies and disastrous economic polices. A vote for him is the final nail in the coffin for Britain.

@JP03880617 @WarMonitor3 Except nobody takes anything he says seriously regarding this topic.

@WarMonitor3 Smart. He is showing that the Iranians are unwilling to deal and it is 100% on them when hostilities continue.

Trump just said he does not know if Iran will ever make a deal...