Mike Daniels

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Mike Daniels

Mike Daniels

@ElectionStats1

I like to be nice to people

Scottsdale, AZ Joined Ocak 2011
773 Following239 Followers
Mike Daniels
Mike Daniels@ElectionStats1·
@CoolHandMe33 There's no big improvement but he's all of a sudden an MVP candidate.
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CoolHandMe
CoolHandMe@CoolHandMe33·
Notice anything about Victor Wembanyama’s first 3 seasons? Year 1: 21.4 PPG | 10.6 RPG | 3.9 APG | 3.6 BPG Year 2: 24.3 PPG | 11.0RPG | 3.7 APG | 3.8 BPG Year 3: 24.2 PPG | 11.3 RPG | 3.0 APG | 3.1 BPG
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Mike Daniels
Mike Daniels@ElectionStats1·
@CoolHandMe33 Wemby is the new darling and the anyone but Luka candidate right now.
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CoolHandMe
CoolHandMe@CoolHandMe33·
As usual the NBA media isn’t aware of how few minutes Wembanyama played this year. He spent a lot of time coming off the bench(9 games). I hear people say Wemby still got great numbers in that shorter time. Wrong, he either has the same or less in every category as last year. In fact the only number he improved upon from his rookie year is his ppg are up 2.8
Polymarket Hoops@PolymarketHoops

Victor Wembanyama (MVP favorite) minutes played this season: 1694 LeBron James (indelible for awards) minutes played this season: 1780 😳😳😳

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Mike Daniels
Mike Daniels@ElectionStats1·
@CoolHandMe33 I think you're right. Obviously the olympic team is more talented but OKC is so deep and put together perfectly and has no weakness.
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CoolHandMe
CoolHandMe@CoolHandMe33·
Hot take: The OKC Thunder would beat the USA Olympic team. They’re more well constructed and play better as a team.
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Mike Daniels
Mike Daniels@ElectionStats1·
@Mike_Jagacki lol what are you talking about? I literally just went over this game film and about 15 to 17 peoples id contribute to Luka. You're counting points on 3 on 1 and rotations his teammates missed. Say he got beat a few times which he did 6 times out of 22 attempts. But dont BS
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Mike Jagacki
Mike Jagacki@Mike_Jagacki·
Luka gave up 41 points on defense in a must-win Game 5! I've never done a negative film breakdown, but this was one of the worst performances in a must-win game. Let's break it down🧵
Mike Jagacki tweet media
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Mike Daniels
Mike Daniels@ElectionStats1·
@CoolHandMe33 @Mike_Jagacki lol it really is garbage I watched it. I don't know why I do that to myself. Lots of guys claiming to be "experts" or "gurus" so they can take money from wealthy white families convincing them they can be great.
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CoolHandMe
CoolHandMe@CoolHandMe33·
@Mike_Jagacki Trying to elevate your brand by lying is lame. I watched your video and you either don’t know defense or you don’t like Luka. Counting points against Luka consistently that had nothing to do with him. It’s a garbage video.
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Mike Daniels
Mike Daniels@ElectionStats1·
@CoolHandMe33 I noticed that too lol. Trying to instill fear into the stock market is very heroic of all the DNC politicians
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CoolHandMe
CoolHandMe@CoolHandMe33·
Seems like we found out everyone who’s in the stock market is a day trader. I’ll give it a while before we find out if the tariffs work out for the country. It’s obviously a negotiation tool just like it was in Trump’s first term. Let’s see if he can get the mission accomplished
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Mike Daniels
Mike Daniels@ElectionStats1·
@CoolHandMe33 This post alone should shut everyone up. Politics and peoples distain for Donald Trump are what is causing the drama. No one cared when Biden did nothing to turn off the tariffs and no one cared when he raised tariffs on China.
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CoolHandMe
CoolHandMe@CoolHandMe33·
Biden not only didn't take away the Trump tariffs from his first term he increased tariffs on China. If they were so bad why didn't he "fix" this. When Trump imposed these tariffs in his first term inflation rose at only 1.93% cnn.com/2024/09/13/pol…
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Mike Daniels
Mike Daniels@ElectionStats1·
@CoolHandMe33 I agree. Luka scores if you play him straight up and don't help and he makes the pass if you do. I expect a good complete game from him though.
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CoolHandMe
CoolHandMe@CoolHandMe33·
I think I’m the only one that doesn’t expect Luka to go crazy tonight. Luka always makes the right play and if Kidd makes a point of not letting Luka score 40 by doubling then Luka will just find his open teammates. But it will be interesting to see how Kidd plays Luka.
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Mike Daniels
Mike Daniels@ElectionStats1·
@CoolHandMe33 I don't have access to it but the things people are posting it looks scary good.
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CoolHandMe
CoolHandMe@CoolHandMe33·
I know it’s only the beginning but this Grok 3 is unreal. It’s better than the $200 per month ChatGPT already.
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CoolHandMe
CoolHandMe@CoolHandMe33·
It’s nice to see that Donald Trump and Barack Obama see eye to eye on the border and illegal immigration.
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B. Lamontz
B. Lamontz@blamontz·
@CoolHandMe33 @BauerOutage @RealCJ10 Since you clearly don’t know what you’re talking about so slunk away, the judge in the restraining order matter didn’t grant it, as she said it wasn’t necessary as they weren’t dating and she didn’t see Bauer as a further threat. It was agreed upon that he caused the injuries.
B. Lamontz tweet mediaB. Lamontz tweet media
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Mike Daniels
Mike Daniels@ElectionStats1·
@CoolHandElias It's going to be great but scary also. When the government has control of things like this it's hard to trust the power will be handled responsibly.
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CoolHandMe
CoolHandMe@CoolHandMe33·
I wish the United States budget was a video game or an app. As a numbers nerd I find myself looking up all these different ways you can cut spending not to mention the other creative ways you can increase revenues. This new $500 billion dollar investment in AI should greatly lower the cost in a lot of areas where the government overspends. The investment has the ability to pay for itself very quickly. About half the jobs in the US Government would have the ability to be cut in just a couple of years. Not to mention what it could do for the tax system. AI could handle every person and businesses taxes and limit the amount of mistakes made reducing the need for so many IRS agents. It's realistic AI could save the government $100 billion a year pretty soon and that's probably conservative. As time goes on and AI gets better it will likely find more ways to create a more organized society and even find opportunities to create revenue.
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Mike Daniels
Mike Daniels@ElectionStats1·
@CoolHandElias you have the least harmless content and an informative account. why is X restricting you? were you hacked?
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CoolHandMe
CoolHandMe@CoolHandMe33·
Kari Lake just gained ground on Ruben Gallego. Now down by 33,363 votes. LAKE: 48,325 (49.97%) GALLEGO: 46,184 (47.76%) I'm surprised the last 90,000+ votes that came in went for Kari Lake. They were early votes in a batch that you'd expect 52/48 Gallego but it went a few percent to Kari. We still have a ballgame with 628,000 ballots to count.
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Mike Daniels
Mike Daniels@ElectionStats1·
@CoolHandElias It seems like Kari just needs a very slightly higher percentage at this point.
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CoolHandMe
CoolHandMe@CoolHandMe33·
Arizona Senate Count Update Between Kari Lake and Ruben Gallego: Here's the ballot progress out of Arizona. You see 339,828 early ballots left. Those might lean a little more left by a few percent. So even in a county that's 70/30 Republican they might go 67/33 for Lake. The same for the next column of provisionals where there is 45,126 left. The column to the right of that has 333,520 uncounted ballots. This is a mix of ballots but these should have a lot of election day votes and lean more towards Kari Lake. From my experience as a local of watching Arizona count slowly over the years the ballots in Maricopa have typically been more of the suburban areas of Phoenix as the days go on. So while Gallego is winning Maricopa thanks to Phoenix and Tempe, you could see Kari Lake win more votes in the outskirt cities. If this is the case things could get even closer.
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Mike Daniels
Mike Daniels@ElectionStats1·
@CoolHandElias You clearly were doing a great job of figuring out where to look to figure out this election. You nailed everything. It's interesting how many people in the media looked at polls and not what you were saying which is early voting trends.
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CoolHandMe
CoolHandMe@CoolHandMe33·
When the Selzer poll came out I posted this. It was EV data showing Iowa doing 3.3% better in 2024 than in 2020. Well Iowa did end up 3.3% better in 2024. The data was clear that Trump was doing better not 13% worse. People just had to do some research.
CoolHandMe@CoolHandMe33

For those of you Republicans that would like to feel better about Iowa after the Selzer Poll... We know Republicans are up in Iowa early voting compared to 2020 and 2022. But what about cannibalization? Take every single 2020 election day GOP vote away from the 2024 early vote and Dems are up 43.7% to 33.7%. That's 3.3% better for the GOP than 2020 and 8.6% better than 2022.

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Mike Daniels
Mike Daniels@ElectionStats1·
@CoolHandElias I won't hold it against you. I'll send you a few percent of my winnings if Casey does win lol
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CoolHandMe
CoolHandMe@CoolHandMe33·
@ElectionStats1 As long as the $15 is something you can afford to lose I feel like it's a good value for a small risk.
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CoolHandMe
CoolHandMe@CoolHandMe33·
Some won't like this but I went and did some research on the Pennsylvania senate race. Long math problem short it looks like there's 200,000 votes out there still and 129,000ish from Philadelphia. Casey is winning about 78% of the votes coming in from there. That math would mean Bob Casey catches McCormick easily by about 45,000 votes. The votes from Cambria and other small counties would only net McCormick another 15,000 to 20,000. I can't say the totals left are accurate I'm just taking them from NBC News but if they are accurate that would be a problem for McCormick. I'll be putting a little money down on the 3% chance Casey has to win right now. I figure a few bucks couldn't hurt when the math seems a little better for Casey. But again I don't know if these numbers I'm using are accurate or exactly what part of the counties they're from. So this math could be off. So proceed with caution.
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Mike Daniels
Mike Daniels@ElectionStats1·
@CoolHandElias Arizona seems like the easiest of all the states at the moment for Trump.
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CoolHandMe
CoolHandMe@CoolHandMe33·
Arizona Numbers and Prediction: Arizona was the only state I missed in 2020 and it was by a very small margin. I have to redeem myself... I'd like to start with the percentage splits Joe Biden got in 2020 once again. They're favorable to Harris in this model but It's a good place to start. If we use the 2020 splits like the one in the image I attached for the 2,338,379 early votes that leaves us with... Harris: 1,145,533 votes Trump: 1,156,947 votes Trump leads by 11,414 votes after early voting Using 2020 totals that leaves us with 1,053,792 votes left for election day. If we once again use the splits for election day that leaves us with... Harris: 514,040 votes Trump: 520,995 votes The total vote outcome would be... Harris: 1,659,573 votes - 49.72% Trump: 1,677,942 votes - 50.28% Trump wins by 18,369 votes As I said this model was very favorable to Kamala as it was all percentage splits from a Joe Biden victory. Even with Kamala taking a lot of the Republican votes from Trump and winning 9% more Independents it still wouldn't be enough to overtake this large GOP early voting lead. If Trump can get his splits to look more like 2016 in Arizona he could win the state by 3-5%. Because of the amount of wiggle room Trump has with Independents I am predicting Donald Trump wins Arizona.
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Mike Daniels
Mike Daniels@ElectionStats1·
@CoolHandElias It's looking like Harris can win under the right turnout and circumstances. But the numbers are just favoring Trump and it's gonna be tough for her to pull it off.
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CoolHandMe
CoolHandMe@CoolHandMe33·
Pennsylvania Early Votes and Prediction: We're almost to the finish line with early voting totals. We can somewhat project the last day. If we are a little off, it won't be too dramatic at this point. Early vote final estimates: Democrats: 1,081,717 Republicans: 642,373 Other: 226,952 Total Votes Cast: 1,951,042 Dem Firewall is 439,344 votes But what do Independents look like? The answer is we don't know. However, we can once again model it after 2020, which is slightly more favorable overall for Harris. Let's see what happens... You can see from the photo what the early voting percentages looked like in 2020. Those are the numbers I used to get the following vote totals: Harris would receive 1,348,339 votes. Trump would receive 598,164 votes. Harris would lead by 750,175 votes. If we use the number of voters in the PA election for 2020 and subtract it from the 2024 EA vote, we get 4,967,318 votes for Election Day. Of those votes in 2020, as shown in the attached image, it was very heavy for Republicans. We don't know what the vote distribution will be, but we're very confident Republicans will be voting more than Democrats. Let's be generous to Harris and say the vote distribution on Election Day is: 38% Republicans, 33% Democrats, and 28% Independents. The totals for Election Day would be as follows: Harris: 2,002,326 votes Trump: 2,810,509 votes Trump would win Election Day votes by 808,183 votes. The final total would be: Harris: 3,350,665 votes (49.57%) Trump: 3,408,673 votes (50.43%) Trump wins by 58,008 votes This scenario is very favorable to Harris in my opinion. We're giving splits to Harris from an election that Biden won. We gave a lower percentage on Election Day than will likely happen. The only part of this model in favor of Trump is he receives higher percentages on Election Day than he will likely have, as there will be more Dems voting in person than in 2020. However, that doesn’t look like it will make up the difference. For that reason, I will once again be picking Donald Trump as the winner of Pennsylvania.
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