@NorthstarCharts #GOLD / $XOM headed towards zero div adjusted too
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The Roth Accountant
205 posts
The Roth Accountant
@RothCompounder
CPA, personal tax preparation, corporate taxes, estate taxes, book keeping, financial reporting, ROTH and backdoor roth advocate
Joined Nisan 2026
49 Following50 Followers
It is HIGHLY UNLIKELY that oil will remain below $200/barrel in the years ahead. Indeed $300+ is probable.
Northstar@NorthstarCharts
If you expect oil to stay below $200/barrel for the next 5-8 years, you're ignoring 150 years of evidence 👇
Nice, France 🇫🇷 English
#GOLD closer to a 20-30 year top in real terms here
Doesn’t matter how “good the case for gold is”
That’s why it had the epic 25 year run , the market prices stuff in advance
Best case it bounces between 3-8k for a few decades
But in real terms the money was already made in gold
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@Brad_Setser That’s like saying Nasdaq is up b/c NASDAQ’s price is up
Gold’s price rising is the whole point
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Give me a break --
Gold's share is up b/c gold's price is up
China never (and I mean never!) expected to have access to the swap lines. Same for the GCC countries.
Dollar reserves stopped gowing b/c funds were directed into the state banks and SWFs
Izabella Kaminska@izakaminska
Deutsche’s George Saravelos highlights today that “the share of US dollars in central bank reserves is once more in decline. It has fallen from over 60% to just 40%, while gold’s share has tripled from its lows to 30% today.” And: “ EM central banks have been actively buying gold and driving upward pressure on prices; crucially - their FX reserves may also now begin to structurally decline. Of course another way to look at it is that they don’t have the dollars they necessarily need to defend their currencies in the event critical dollar swap lines are removed. In that light the gold is their next best hedge in case they are locked out.
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@corvette72778 @LukeGromen @jam_croissant Another one who bought someone else’s 10x+ adjusted for inflation thinking they are early cause podcasters and you tubers talk about how great gold is ^
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@RothCompounder @LukeGromen @jam_croissant stick to accounting because you don't know economics or charts.
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If the world is breaking up into blocs again, then this chart is going back to where it traded the last time the world was broken into blocs.
Gold is still one of the cheapest assets on the board - would need to rise 2-3x to mean revert (assuming CB reserves never rise again.)
Izabella Kaminska@izakaminska
Deutsche’s George Saravelos highlights today that “the share of US dollars in central bank reserves is once more in decline. It has fallen from over 60% to just 40%, while gold’s share has tripled from its lows to 30% today.” And: “ EM central banks have been actively buying gold and driving upward pressure on prices; crucially - their FX reserves may also now begin to structurally decline. Of course another way to look at it is that they don’t have the dollars they necessarily need to defend their currencies in the event critical dollar swap lines are removed. In that light the gold is their next best hedge in case they are locked out.
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The Roth Accountant retweeted
Cheap ?
It’s up 10x+ in real terms since the lows. Gold has had a bigger run then it did up to the 1980 Mania top.
People thought it was cheap in 1980
Too 👀
Can it go higher sure, but when gold is up over 10x vs inflation it’s gone above and beyond a “protector or purchasing power” the last 25 years
Who knows when the next 20-30 year period of no gain/losses against inflation happen for the untouchable metal
Hats off to whoever got into gold 25 years ago heck even 5 years ago
Gotta accept you’re very late to this move even if “the macro looks perfect for gold”
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@TheGovtHatesU @PeterLBrandt What’s a matter ? You buy someone else’s inflation adjusted 10x plus ?
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U.S. equity investors -- get ready for five to ten years of chop suey
During the past 100 years the S&P index chopped sideways for 54 years. That is 46 years of no new net gain (other than from dividends)
S&P Index is entering another major period of chop $SPX
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The Roth Accountant retweeted
@PeterLBrandt Rather be in equities than gold here
All the gold bugs will be humbled when they lose money in real terms for 20-30 year again
Anyone buying gold that’s up 10x+ adjusted for inflation is extremely late .. more over extended than 1980 👀🤝💯
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@NorthstarCharts Nice life enjoyment over charts
Well deserved 🚀
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Plus survivorship bias
Apple , bitcoin , nvda these people got lucky hodling
There’s thousands of other people actually millions that held other assets diligently over time only to get washed out
Good for those people cause it worked out but they are not geniuses just lucky and stand out on social media due to survivorship bias .. you only hear about the winning stories .. not the thousands of losing stories with that approach
On average HODLing individual names or assets is a losing game but we only hear about the big winners so our views are skewed
Hats off to people who bought and held Bitcoin apple nvda early and held .. but you’re not a genius just experienced survivorship bias and it’s echoed on socials
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I've been telling people to buy Bitcoin since $1.
Most laughed.
Some listened.
A few changed their lives.
I held from pennies to $32. Watched it crash to $2. Held.
Watched it climb to $1,100. Mt. Gox happened. Held.
$20,000 to $3,200. Held.
COVID dump to $3,800 in one afternoon. Held.
Every crash taught me the same lesson:
The people who understand what they own don't sell.
The opportunity hasn't closed. It just got more expensive to ignore.
See you at $500K.
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@PeterLBrandt Nice although people said same thing in 2020 “welcome to the lost decade”
Def possible but this is spewed every year
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Facts yeah everyone piles in based on last 5 years performance rather than thinking about the next 5 years
ETH is flat over 5 years and close to 10 years if you do inflation adjusted
$ETH prob beats #GOLD (up 10x+ inflation adjusted from bear lows - where the 1980 run topped for decades) and $SPY drifts higher over time but ETH prob has more upside potential esp since it hasn’t done anything in a long time
The Value Trader@TheValueTrade
So basically it now $ETH time!
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$VT has a potential for another 12% of upside in 2026
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The Roth Accountant retweeted
$ETH bull case is its a 10 year consolidation kinda like gold consolidated for 12 years before going higher
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$ETH adjusted for inflation has been consolidating for almost 10 years !
-IPO distribution/ re accumulation phase
-People bought this thing for a buck ,it took 10 years to wear off early buyers
-may see a big expansion in next cycle
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$DOGE closer to a bottom then a top
Possible there is one more flush down to 5-8c but a weekly "B" signal showing up.
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