Speed-Geeks.com

Founding Member sign-ups are officially open for January at Speed-Geeks.com This is a limited-time window with: • Special Founding Member pricing • Full access to all Speed Geeks tools • Private Discord channel + early access to new tools I’m also giving away 3 Speed Geeks hats Earlier signups get more entries.

113 races worth of Speed Geeks Finish Position projections, and a nearly perfect distribution of actuals vs projection percentile buckets! Working on some a great page for the site to look back at historical results, founding members have access to the page via discord, hoping to have it ready for everyone in the next week or two.

How many people out there can truly they say they are an originator? There could be five million people in this country that bet NASCAR. There are probably ten people that set the market. Two of them are at this shop. That’s not hyperbole, that’s a fact. Next stop: KANSAS.

@thechek182 I told grok to do 8 spidermans, it did 9.... but it turns out there was a 9th SG member in the chop that I didn't recognize.

A 20-way tie atop the $325k Burnout on DK, and by my count, at least 8 of them were Speed-Geeks.com members! Another memorable day for the archives!

@thechek182 Cheers, buddy!

@Speed_Geeks has the best NASCAR projections that i've seen in all of my years of doing this. I don't want to split with more of you, but need to acklowledge that I don't need to do my own projections anymore.

A few thoughts there... 1. I think it probably matters less in Xfinity/Trucks where there are big gaps in both experience and equipment 2. I may change my opinion on which tracks to comp against after seeing the practice data 3. If I were to discuss comp tracks/races, it would be in the members-only discord... probably not on twitter/X

Don't let us get hot... #PoweredByProbability

Cars on track tonight! O’Reilly practice and qualifying at 4:30, then a much appreciated overnight window to run sims before tomorrow’s race. Expect practice model shortly after the session ends and race simulations later in the evening!

I don’t know if anybody had a better weekend than @JoeSchroe85, but I know the @Speed_Geeks community was riding high. Anybody else sweep the weekend? 👀 Powered by Probability.

An unexpected perk of Speed-Geeks.com membership... One member has posted 4-straight NHL Blocked Shot prop bet winners in our other-sports-chat channel, claiming his model runs on "his sons etch-a-sketch"

Idk anything about NASCAR but @Speed_Geeks does 🤝 Nice cash posted in VIP 🔥

@razzleddazzzzle Going to try to get them but it will be like 430 or later

The Speed-Geeks.com practice model really translated well to the race this week, as we typically see at tracks with moderate-to-high tire wear. I know a few of these names were really not that high on other people's lists...

Had someone ask what the “correct” number of simulations is... Truth is you don’t need hundreds of thousands. At some point the extra sims add more marketing value than modeling value. • 10k sims → plenty for betting markets • 50k sims → strong DFS lineup pool • 100k sims → highest variance races 10k sims already gives ≈4-decimal accuracy. The larger runs mainly help separate true top lineups (repeat appearances) from 1-off outliers.

COTA was a blast. Entertaining race. Active Discord. Multiple wins. A fun little Sunday, powered by probability!

@razzleddazzzzle Had initial simulations posted at like 630am this morning, just did a few tweaks and a final sim within the last 30 minutes. Locked and loaded!

@SJx22_ I wont discount the difference in feel between the cars, but I still think the gap from one series to the other is striking.

Big difference in comfort in Cup cars. Shane has been working with his team for over a year now and had a they know exactly what Shane wants in his car. Look at last year Shane was human at COTA because he was still getting familiar with his team and building it (Chicago his first win everyone had a blank notebook) then after that he was on a different level at the rest of the RC's.

Here is an observation where I think the market has it wrong (both the books and the prediction markets). In O'Reilly series, SVG and Zilisch in identical equipment are pretty close to even. In Cup series, SVG and Zilisch in identical equipment are not close. Similarly talented drivers, train together, share notes, teammates in both series, dead-even equipment... why the big swing from one series to the other?

@NatedoesT The point is same drivers, equal equipment, hugely different odds series to series. Regardless of what side you are on, one side is wrong.

@Speed_Geeks One raced super cars since Connor was in diapers, And the other, well was in diapers. Correlation from super cars to Cup cars is a definite edge.