Ari K. Bais

People forgot we are in a technological boom/bubble. One of the reasons data is so important is that every time is different yet the data and moves stick to the historical context. I hope the war market commentary helped. A tech cycle historically took 4-6y to fully mature. A war correction is usually done within 3w. People simply forgot or got lost in headlines. The late part of the 90s had multiple big corrections for various reasons and we still ran for 2y+ until the top. Sitting in the new positions and crypto here: $ETH $ETHA $BMNR $ARES $HOOD $COIN $MELI added and sold, didn’t get entry back so far, just waiting for the next opportunity here.

@sspencer_smb What happened week 3 the previous two times

3rd greatest two week rally of all time... $QQQ $SPY

As per today's satellite imagery, Iran is floating 23 million barrels of crude oil east of this "US Toll" line which Chinese social media drew for fun. Fact remains stranger than fiction.

@sneako Retard

I miss Joe Biden man

@MTS_Macro @TheShortBear Sign up to the front lines then retard

Why are people so opposed to “boots on the ground” it’s not like we are long-term invading? We technically had “boots on the ground” in Venezuela that ended well…so if Trump wants to do 2 or 3 special forces missions to ensure uranium is gone, SoH is open, etc. why is that so bearish? Boots on the ground would be bullish atp means it’s over.

The weird speech yesterday. Saying they need to finish this war for the families of the fallen soldiers, saying each one wanted to see this war continued until the end. The firing of multiple White House staff. The firing of half a dozen top military officials. Iran rushing to close off deals today and ratify the opening of the strait for European countries. They all point towards a massive escalation coming soon. (Boots most likely) People want nothing to do with it or are actively voicing their concerns and leaving/getting fired over it. All do the above wouldn’t be the case if a ceasefire was coming.

@WhiteHouse @Shayan86 What a useless speech

President Trump Delivers an Address to the Nation, Apr. 1, 2026 twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1…

Fox reporter: How bad is your memory? President Biden: My memory is so bad I let you speak. (February 2024)

Thoughts on big picture ES: 1. The over/under I'd been using of ~6800 area gave two headfakes (but more clean tests). Bears have it. While a substantial level this will no longer be the over/under going forward. (It's now dynamic, not static). 2. We are trading at real extreme from yearly VWAP. Tough to sustain without at least significant bounce. 3. Last year's VWAP closed at 6383. I'm watching that spot to see if we get a swift rejection. 4. We are decidedly in 'fast trend' mode for the year. Aggressive spots to fade really only first show up when/where we get 'pattern shifts'. Typically these will nicely coincide with something like weekly going rotational. 5. Let's be honest, it's going to be a headline that changes things and a great long trade location is simply not going to be offered. Then we'll be left chasing and dealing with larger downside shakeouts, and not chasing and just watching it go and go. 6. In terms of today/right now: a) 6520 area first zone to watch to see how in control sellers are. b) An early flush lower appears likely. Very likely. c) Real signs of bullishness will be holds above ~6565, and then above ~6620.

This is Wild. Deutsche Bank has developed an index that helps to predict the next TACO by Trump. It has proven effective in previous big Trump pivots. The "Pressure index" combines one-month change in approval ratings, one-year inflation expectations and performance of the S&P 500 & t-bill yields. The higher it goes, the greater the chances of 🌮

@AdamMancini4 What does reclaim with force mean? Time?

We are finally getting some range expansion in #ES_F after spending 24hrs stuck mostly in the 6592-6623 chop zone. We held 6592 all night defending and trapping over and over. Volatility low now 6577 was 1st support down. Just hit. 6592 must reclaim with force to rally to 6623+

Someone loaded $655k worth of 1dte puts that were 2% OTM not 15 minutes before the headlines that dumped the rally broke on the wires. You can't make up this unbelievable level of insider trading.

the corruption is the most structurally significant part of the administration. drain. the. swamp.

5 minutes before Trump’s announcement: * $1.5B notional worth of S&P500 (ES) futures are bought in a single clip. * $192M notional of oil futures (CL) sold. More than 4x-6x any other trade size during the market close. Insiders profited from his lies in broad daylight!

Many new traders struggle because they think trading=predicting. My trading never turned a corner until I stopped thinking *at all* where/how price goes. I wait for my setup to present, I react to the trigger, then I manage it level to level. Price will follow what path it wants

FOMC week after a violent flush is where more accounts blow up than any other week of the year. Not because people get the direction wrong. Because they get the timing wrong. Here's the pattern that repeats almost every time. Weekend narrative shifts to "oversold bounce." Monday and Tuesday dip buyers pile in. Wednesday at 2:00 PM the algos parse the statement and create a massive candle in one direction. That candle reverses within 48 hours about 60% of the time. The initial move is exit liquidity. The real repricing happens Thursday and Friday once humans actually digest the dot plot revisions and whether Powell acknowledged the growth scare or hand-waved it away. GDP at 0.7% vs 1.4% expected. Negative NFP. The question isn't whether the Fed pivots dovish. It's whether the dot plot confirms the economy is actually deteriorating or pretends it isn't. That answer takes two days to price, not two minutes. The edge this week isn't in predicting direction. It's in having the discipline to let the first move happen without you, then sizing into the second one. Who's actually waiting for Thursday, and who's already positioned for Wednesday's close?

You should never take a big loss. It’s the most important rule of trading that any successful trader will tell you, non negotiable. Losing trades are inevitable, everyone loses. What isn’t inevitable is big losses. Why? Because we control the size of our losing trades. If you take a big loss it’s because you let a small loss turn into a big one, it should never happen. There should only be four outcomes while trading: Big win Small win Breakeven Small loss That’s it, big losses shouldn’t be an option. If you program yourself to not allow big losses your success will increase exponentially.

@2muchpeppapig @TheShortBear Quiet retard

@TheShortBear Look, we get it Bear, you don’t like Trump. Never a positive thing to say even when he gets things right. That’s why you can’t be taken at face value when everything is steered in a negative direction by your commentary. Learn to be more balanced if you want more reach…

Pressure your allies, question NATO, mock European leaders, slap tariffs on them, and ease sanctions on your adversaries. Then start a war against the advice of top generals and without informing your partners. And now you’re asking those same allies for help without even asking… The irony.