co/efficient

NEW: South Carolina Governor GOP Primary Poll Full Governor Ballot: Nancy Mace: 22% Pamela Evette: 21% Alan Wilson: 19% Ralph Norman: 8% Josh Kimbrell: 1% Undecided: 29% Governor Ballot Among Voters with Opinion of Mace, Evette, and Wilson: Pamela Evette: 46% Alan Wilson: 25% Nancy Mace: 9% Ralph Norman: 6% Josh Kimbrell: 2% Undecided: 11% March 12-13, 2026 | 810 LV (R) | MoE ±3.43% | Not sponsored by any candidate or candidate's committee. Full results: coefficient.org/our-work/south…

Primaries start tomorrow. Do you know your dates? Every 2026 primary and early vote date. Searchable by state and month. View the full 50-state calendar: coefficient.org/2026-primary-c…

NEW: 2026 Georgia Governor GOP Primary Poll: President Trump remains the dominant force in Georgia GOP Politics with a +66 Net Favorability. (80Fav-14Unfav) Half of GA GOP Primary Voters self-identify as "Trump Republicans", and Rick Jackson is leading among that group 32 - 18 over second place contender Burt Jones. After the recent launch of the Rick Jackson campaign, he has made quick inroads in a short period of time. GOP Primary Ballot for Governor: Rick Jackson: 24% Burt Jones: 16% Brad Raffensperger: 9% Chris Carr: 3% Clark Dean: 1% Gregg Kirkpatrick: 1% Someone else: 4% Undecided: 42% Fielded Feb 8–9, 2026 | n=1,123 Likely Republican Primary Voters | MoE ±3.18% | Not sponsored by any candidate or committee. Full Results: coefficient.org/ga-gov-2026-go…

NEW: 2026 Ohio SOS GOP Primary Poll Marcell Strbich leads the early ballot test at 12%, with 84% undecided, leaving major room for movement as name ID increases. He also holds a slight edge in favorability. Ballot Marcell Strbich: 12% Robert Sprague: 4% Undecided: 84% Strbich Image Favorable: 12% Unfavorable: 5% Unsure / Never Heard: 83% Sprague Image Favorable: 9% Unfavorable: 5% Unsure / Never Heard: 87% Fielded Jan 20–22, 2026 | n=819 Likely Republican Primary Voters | MoE ±3.42% | Paid for by Strbich for Ohio Full Results: coefficient.org/oh-sos-gop-202…

New Poll: Indiana Republicans' Support For Redistricting • 78% say it is very important that elected representatives support President Trump’s agenda • 72% support redrawing congressional districts in Indiana • 67% say they would be less likely to re-elect their State Senator if they sided with Democrats Dec 11–12, 2025 | 1,010 GOP Primary Voters | MoE ±3.11% | Mobile Text + Live Interviews | for Fair Maps Indiana View full memo: coefficient.org/wp-content/upl…

NEW: 2026 Texas GOP Senate Primary Poll Ken Paxton and John Cornyn remain locked in a close battle, each enjoying slight leads in various media markets, while Wesley Hunt trails in third in all markets across the state. Ballot: Cornyn: 28% Paxton: 27% Hunt: 19% Undecided: 26% Fielded Dec 1–3, 2025 | n=1,022 Likely Republican Primary Voters | MoE ±3.07% | Not sponsored by any candidate or committee. Full results: coefficient.org/texas-statewid…

The nation has spoken. In our new Thanksgiving poll, Republicans prefer white meat. Democrats can’t decide. Turkey Preference (Overall): White meat: 50% Dark meat: 39% Leftovers: 4% Don’t celebrate/oppose Thanksgiving: 3% Unsure: 5% By Party: Republican — White: 57%, Dark: 32% Democrat — White: 46%, Dark: 46% Nov 25–26, 2025 | 219 LV | MoE ±6.62% Not sponsored by any candidate or candidate’s committee. Full results: coefficient.org/national-thank…

NEW: 2026 Oklahoma GOP Governor Primary Poll Full Republican Primary Ballot McCall – 31% Drummond – 20% Keating – 5% Merrick – 3% Mazzei – 1% Someone else – 2% Undecided – 38% H2H: McCall v. Drummond McCall – 40% Drummond – 23% Undecided – 37 Potential Runoff: McCall v. Drummond McCall – 42% Drummond – 25% Undecided – 34% Fielded Oct 25–27, 2025 | n=855 Likely Republican Primary Voters | MoE ±3.24% | Not sponsored by any candidate or committee. View Full Results: coefficient.org/okrp25/ #okgov #okelections

New Statewide NJ Poll: Governor: Sherrill (D): 48% Ciattarelli (R): 47% Kaplan (L): 1% Kuniansky (SWP): 0% Undecided: 5% Generic Assembly: Democrat: 49% Republican: 45% Undecided: 6% Oct 23–27, 2025 | 995 LVs | MoE ±3.27% | Not sponsored by any candidate or candidate’s committee. View full results: coefficient.org/new-jersey-sta…

New Statewide VA Poll: While the Governor's race is still competitive with Spanberger out in front, Jay Jones' texting scandal has defined the race for Attorney General with Miyares leading by 4 (46%-42%) headed into the final weeks of the campaign. Governor: Spanberger (D): 49% Earle-Sears (R): 44% Charles (I): 1% Undecided: 6% Lieutenant Governor Hashmi (D): 47% Reid (R): 42% Undecided: 11% Attorney General: Miyares (R): 46% Jones (D): 42% Undecided: 11% Oct 15–17, 2025 | 937 LVs | MoE ±3.19% | Not sponsored by any candidate or candidate’s committee. View full results: coefficient.org/virginia-state…

NEW: New Hampshire US Senate General Election Poll On two hypothetical head-to-head matchups: Pappas (D) vs. Sununu (R): Pappas – 45% Sununu – 42% Undecided – 12% Pappas (D) vs. Brown (R): Pappas – 49% Brown – 39% Undecided – 13% John Sununu (R) performs notably better than Scott Brown (R) against Chris Pappas (D) in a hypothetical general election matchup. The NH seat remains competitive and within GOP reach, with Sununu giving Republicans their strongest path to victory. Oct 9–13, 2025 | 1,034 LVs | MoE ±3.05% | Not sponsored by any candidate or committee. Full Results: coefficient.org/new-hampshire-…

New 2026 Kentucky US Senate GOP Primary Poll: Despite substantial spending aimed at damaging Cameron’s reputation, he maintains a remarkable 56% favorable rating with only 14% viewing him unfavorably. Ballot: Daniel Cameron: 39% Andy Barr: 22% Nate Morris: 8% Someone else: 4% Undecided: 27% Net Favorability: Cameron: +42 Barr: +16 Morris: –6 Oct 8–10, 2025 | 911 Likely Republican Primary Voters | MoE ±3.24% | Sponsored by Cameron for Senate, Inc. Full results: coefficient.org/ky-senate-2026…

NEW POLL: Our latest Virginia statewide survey finds voters sharply divided on political violence, who's to blame, and the use of the National Guard. ✔️ 1 in 3 Republicans say recent events increased motivation to vote ✔️ Voters who typically skip off-year elections are reporting an increased motivation to vote. Learn how this could impact November in our full memo: coefficient.org/va-statewide-p… #VAgov #VAleg #VAelection Not paid for by any candidate or candidate’s committee.

New Statewide VA Poll Governor: Spanberger (D): 49% Earle-Sears (R): 43% Charles (I): 1% Undecided: 7% House of Delegates: Democrat: 49% Republican: 45% Undecided: 6% Sept 22–23, 2025 | 1,024 LVs | MoE ±3.05% | Not sponsored by any candidate or candidate’s committee. View full results: coefficient.org/va-statewide-s…

New 2026 South Carolina Governor GOP Primary Poll: Nancy Mace: 19% Pamela Evette: 18% Alan Wilson: 16% Ralph Norman: 10% Josh Kimbrell: 2% Undecided: 35% Sept 18–19, 2025 | 1,094 Likely Republican Primary Voters | MoE ±3.17% | Not sponsored by any candidate or candidate’s committee. Full results: coefficient.org/sc-governor-go…

NEW: New Hampshire US Senate poll GOP Primary: John Sununu - 40% Scott Brown - 23% Dan Innis - 8% Someone else/Undecided - 29% GE Ballot: DEM: Chris Pappas, 46% REP: John Sununu, 43% Undecided - 11% John Sununu is the clear frontrunner in the 2026 GOP primary, and against Democrat Chris Pappas in the general election, Sununu's strong performance shows the NH seat is within GOP reach. Sept 10–12, 2025 | 904 LVs (346 GOP) | MoE ±3.26% | Not sponsored by any candidate or candidate's committee. Full Results: coefficient.org/nh-u-s-senate-…

New co/efficient 2026 Texas U.S. Senate GOP Primary Poll: Ken Paxton: 39% John Cornyn: 36% Undecided: 26% Aug 25–27, 2025 | 818 Likely Republican Primary Voters | MoE ±3.43% | Not sponsored by any candidate or candidate's committee. Full results: coefficient.org/tx-gop-primary…

We ask voters which party they are “most aligned with", which gives us a true read of today’s voters. This off year turn out will not look like the 2024 turn out, demographically. Even more so, they have and will continue to shift in terms of party alignment. In states w/o party reg, assuming a static party alignment over time is a common mistake.

This is yet another certified co/efficient moment. The bullshit in this poll wreaks so damn bad, you take one whiff, and it'll feel like your nostrils are being branded. AtlasIntel 2024 VA poll (hit the mark) had party ID at 34D-31R-35I. This poll's is 40R-37D-23I.