submarinez
1.2K posts
@GordonJohnson19 there's a lot of 3/20 450c. Only about half covered. @JP_Money_95630 how long does it normally take to clear these walls?
tomorrow ?
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$MU's stock is falling b/c it needed to clear an options wall of ~$500/shr. So, given A LOT of folks were long calls into the print, & it didn't clear $500, brokers are selling stock to reverse sold calls. It's that simple. This isn't fundamentals. It's market mechanics.
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@JP_Money_95630 A20 and Apache are clearing the way now. I wonder how are we going to protect those marines ... 🙏
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Remember 2,500 Marines are in Route From The China Sea.
Expected Arrival sometime next week at their standard rate of travel via ship.
Not going to change things overnight. They'll need time to dig in, fortify their positions, dismantling any threats along the way. Could intensify things actually from a risk off perspective.
NFA
Open Source Intel@Osint613
Israel says the U.S. is planning a two-week operation to seize the Strait of Hormuz, with Israeli participation expected. – Kan News.
El Dorado Hills, CA 🇺🇸 English
🚨🇮🇷 Iran just hit 9 countries in a single night, including 7 of the wealthiest nations on earth
This was Tehran's answer to Israel striking the South Pars gas field, the world's largest, earlier today.
The most intense retaliatory barrage of the entire war, and Iran is now the only country on the planet simultaneously attacking seven of the richest nations by GDP per capita:
🇮🇱 Israel: Ballistic missiles and cluster munitions over central Israel. Two killed in Ramat Gan. Four Palestinian women killed in the West Bank by an Iranian missile.
🇶🇦 Qatar ($110K GDP per capita): 14 ballistic missiles fired. Ras Laffan LNG hub suffered "extensive damage" confirmed by QatarEnergy.
🇦🇪 UAE ($100K): 13 ballistic missiles and 27 attack drones intercepted. Iran threatening imminent strikes on energy facilities.
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia ($35K): Evacuation orders issued for Samref Refinery and Jubail Petrochemical Complex. Waves of missiles intercepted over Riyadh.
🇰🇼 Kuwait ($75K): Ballistic missiles intercepted. U.S. facilities targeted again.
🇧🇭 Bahrain ($65K): U.S. 5th Fleet headquarters under continued assault throughout the war.
🇴🇲 Oman ($32K): Drone strikes on industrial zones. Workers killed. The last neutral Gulf state is now taking fire.
🇯🇴 Jordan: U.S. bases struck as part of the widening multi-front campaign.
🇮🇶 Iraq: U.S. Embassy in Baghdad under nightly drone siege.
Combined GDP per capita of the Gulf states under attack: over $417,000.
These are some of the most prosperous, developed nations on earth, and Iran is hitting all of them simultaneously while its own economy collapses.
This is Operation Madman at full throttle: torch the region's wealth until the world demands the war stops.
Source: @rami_hashimi / Reuters / @itswpceo
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
Tonight will be a bad night for the Gulf Iran will retaliate hard for the strikes on their largest gas field
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This should improve $meta cash flow yugly in the 2nd half of the year . Holding 2027 leaf
Varun Malhotra@varunv_malhotra
Everyone’s dunking on Zuckerberg for burning $84 billion on the metaverse and shutting it down. Nobody’s looking at the numbers. $META is up 500%+ in 3 years. $46 billion in free cash flow last year and 82B cash on hand. The core business prints so much cash it absorbed the entire loss without blinking. Same guy bought Instagram for 1B WhatsApp for cheap. Both generational acquisitions. Zuckerberg: “The only strategy guaranteed to fail is not taking risks.” You don’t get Instagram without the metaverse miss. That’s the price of a founder who swings big and overall wins.
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@JP_Money_95630 100% agree but this steak likes slow cook.. Dee below 200, retest and tank again
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Let's PRAY this Gives OUT.
We NEED a FLASH CRASH - NOT A GRIND.
GRIND = THETA DECAY - COST OF HEDGE EVAPORATES.
PRAY FOR VIX 40+ I know I know But Trust Me.
We WANT COLD MONEY ON THE SIDELINES TO JUMP IN, AND UNLESS THEY SEE REAL FREAKIN VALUE THEY ARE FINE with 4% no RISK MONEY MARKETS.
Heisenberg@Mr_Derivatives
$SPX Actually did touch the 200dma today. BIG test tomorrow and Friday to see if bulls can hold probably one of the most widely watched moving average of them all. Last time it touched it led to a bigly bounce. But the prior two times it tried to bounce but ended up slicing right through. Gonna be a battle.
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@JP_Money_95630 hopefully, it can fill that 430 gap, and I can ride it up again. Worst case is the massive volume profile at 416 near 21ema.
what's your take?
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As an Options Trader My Job is to get in to a position within the Gain Window, then Exit Before IV Crush.
Much Smarter to Book Wins, let Earnings Happen, Let IV Crush Happen then take Re-entry into the New Gain Window which is After Earnings until the Next Earnings.
El Dorado Hills, CA 🇺🇸 English
$MU at top of Bollinger Band and gapping up into earnings.
Buyer beware — IV is elevated here!
I love this one, but they are Squeezing All the Juice out Early.
Using $MU at about $449.60 and the 7-day IV of 89.42% from the snapshot, the options market is implying roughly:
Expected earnings-week move: about ±$42 into the near-term weekly window.
That gives an approximate range of:
Upside: $492
Downside: $408
If framed by different holding windows:
2 trading days: about ±$29.8
3 days: about ±$36.4
4 days: about ±$42.1
5 days: about ±$47.1
My take: for the post-earnings AH reaction this week, the clean read is:
MU implied move = roughly ±9% to ±9.5%, or about ±$40 to ±$42.
This fits the setup: NVDA GTC + FOMC + hot oil + $SPY rebalance/TWD = elevated event stack, so MU is carrying a fat premium into the print.
Also worth noting from the Snapshot.
- Front-end IV is very elevated
- 7-day IV is higher than longer-dated terms (classic event vol)
That usually means options are expensive, and MU needs a real move to beat the premium.
TL;DR:
$MU earnings implied move this week is about ±$42, giving a market-implied range near $408 to $492.
@TheRonnieVShow @TradexWhisperer @smartertrader @blondebroker1 @SuperLuckeee @StockOptionCole @Banana3Stocks @StockPatternPro @chad_ventures @cantonmeow @dannycheng2022
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@Polymarket After dumping it and cutting 20% of workforce, $meta stock will definitely rise again
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JUST IN: Meta announces they'll be shutting down the Metaverse, after pouring $80,000,000,000.00 into the project.
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@JP_Money_95630 if it wasn't for saint pete today, spy would have been red.
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@VigilantFox She’s mad cause she didn’t get 100% of what she wanted ? Go ahead and sit out or vote go Dems
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Ex-beauty queen and longtime Trump ally Carrie Prejean turns on President Trump, declares “MAGA is dead.”
“Let me tell you right now, MAGA is dead.”
“It is deader than dead.”
“We do not recognize President Donald J. Trump anymore.”
“I’ve been a loyal supporter... for almost 20 years… I consider him a dear friend. And I will tell you right now, I do not recognize our president.”
“I think that we are an occupied nation. I think that a foreign country has occupied our government.”
“And we are seeing now that this President of the United States of America is being influenced by a foreign government.”
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@SawyerMerritt @grok who are the possible suppliers to space-1 infrastructure?
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NEWS: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announced today that the company is working on a new chip/computer for orbital data-centers called Nvidia Vera Rubin Space-1.
"It's going to start data-centers out in space. Of course, in space there's no conduction, no convection, there's just radiation, so we have to figure out how to cool these systems out in space, but we got lots of great engineers working on it."
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Story Time X-FAM =p
2005: I was a Level 1 options trader—new to the game.
This trade cost me $27,000.
Was worth $0.00 eventually.
I Couldn't even sell the Calls to Off-Load Them.
In 2005, there were 15 hurricanes in the Atlantic, including 7 major ones (4 Cat 5, 1 Cat 4).
Hurricane Katrina devastated oil production in the Gulf of Mexico.
I jumped in late to the pump, took a vacation thinking I’d ride those calls to the promised land.
When I returned, my call options were wiped out.
OPEC increased production and flooded the market to offset the destroyed US Gulf rigs.
It took two months for prices to settle back to normal—down 20% from the peak.
I did not realize it at the time, but that was a GREAT Lesson I was Taught By the TEETH of the GLOBAL OIL TRADE.
$USO #IranWar $XLE
@chad_ventures @TheRonnieVShow @MandoTrading @Banana3Stocks @StockPatternPro @blondebroker1 @SuperLuckeee @market_sleuth
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Do you hear that?
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Brrrrrrr 🖨️
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📊 $SPY PUTS – THETA DECAY IS BRUTAL RIGHT NOW!!!
Take a look at these option chains for the $660 SPY put across expirations.
Notice something important 👇
Short dated puts are getting absolutely destroyed by theta.
Mar 20 (5 days)
Theta ≈ -0.79/day
Mar 27 (12 days)
Theta ≈ -0.51/day
Apr 2 (18 days)
Theta ≈ -0.41/day
Apr 17 (33 days)
Theta ≈ -0.28/day
Same strike.
Same underlying.
But 3× faster decay in the final week.
📉 With $VIX around 27, option premiums are inflated.
That means traders are paying more extrinsic value for protection.
But here’s the catch:
That extra premium still melts every day.
If the expected move doesn't happen quickly, two things hit you:
• Theta decay
• Volatility crush
⚡ Short-dated options right now require FAST downside movement.
Otherwise you're fighting:
• Time decay
• Elevated implied volatility
• Dealer positioning
🧠 This is why many pros structure hedges by:
• Buying longer-dated puts
• Selling short-dated premium
Capture the theta burn while keeping downside protection.
📌 Key takeaway:
When VIX > 25, short-dated options become expensive ice cubes.
If price doesn't move fast…
They melt...🧊🧊🧊🔥
$SPY $VIX $SPX $QQQ #OptionsTrading #Volatility
El Dorado Hills, CA 🇺🇸 English
@JP_Money_95630 There’s a lot positive developments going on.. pressure is on the short to hold on or cover.
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Most Definitely WhipSaw Week Ahead.
A TON of Negative Gamma built up with Vix Calls That expire 3/18 and 3/20 with Powell Talking on Wednesday.
A Thursday Pump into a Friday Expiration Day, Dividend Payment Ex Date create a bottom scare also.
Throw in Oil 🛢 Coalition talks, China Trade talks, Quarterly Repositioning and it ALL Equals WhipSaw Price Action.
Could take another 2-3 weeks to really settle things out higher or lower.
Being so close to the 200D SMA seems gravity gets us there within 10 days or less.
Real Blonde Broker@blondebroker1
This Week: 1. NY Fed Manufacturing Survey - Monday and opening remarks from Jensen Huang at 11:00 am PST at $NVDA GTC conference. 2. Nvidia $NVDA GTC 2026 - Tuesday 3. U.S. PPI Inflation - Wednesday 4. Fed Policy Decision - Wednesday 2:00 pm EST announcement Powell press conference at 2:30 pm EST 5. Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey and New Home Sales- Thursday 6. US and Iran war updates/Strait of Hormuz Earnings: It’s time to test memory stocks again with $MU reporting. $FDX, $BABA, $OKLO, $LULU, $DOCU
El Dorado Hills, CA 🇺🇸 English
@JP_Money_95630 @grok We need Ukrainian drones urgently to take care of Iran drones asap. The rest is so much easier
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