OpenMacro

If the war continues, the US will have an inflationary crisis. US inflation is back. Headline CPI jumped to 3.3% YoY (from 2.4%) with a +0.9% MoM spike. What’s driving it: 1. • Energy shock: +10.9% MoM 2. • Gasoline: +21% 3. • Core still sticky (~2.6%) 4. • Inflation expectations rising (3.4%) If oil stays elevated (geopolitics, Hormuz), inflation stays above target → the Fed stays trapped. Full breakdown; app.openmacro.ai/insights/us-in…

Europe didn’t sanction Russia. It outsourced the demand. China and India replaced the EU-US as buyers overnight. Russian oil didn’t disappear — it just changed direction. Result?; War funding never stopped. The real lever was never partial bans, it was restricting trade agreements and tarrifs with countries that keep purchasing from Russia. Because EU-US are far bigger trading partners for China and India than Russia — they would have been forced to accept.

The 'true price tag' of the Iran war is 'closer to $50 billion' according to US officials in CBS News report.

The US has seized nearly $500 million in Iranian crypto assets as part of Operation Economic Fury, per Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Trump: Blockade in Hormuz is incredible, Iran getting no money from oil

JUST IN: Elon Musk says most cryptocurrencies are "scams" during OpenAI court testimony. "Some of them have merit, but most of them are scams."

JUST IN 🚨: S&P 500 hits 7,200 for the first time in history 📈🥳🫂

JUST IN: S&P 500 reaches new all-time high of 7,200

@robin_j_brooks "Reason Japan's official FX intervention never works is because MoF and BoJ cancel each other out. The MoF buys Yen to strengthen it (black), but the BoJ at the same time is buying JGBs (blue), which weakens the Yen. Japan plays chess against itself..."

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Tucker Carlson says President Trump would rather "run the world" than improve America.

BREAKING 🚨: U.S. Debt U.S. Debt now exceeds 100% of GDP for the first time since World War 2 🤯👀

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Senate unanimously passes resolution banning members from trading on prediction markets.

Brazil is winning the 2026 oil shock. 🇧🇷 While most economies are hit by higher energy prices, Brazil is benefiting: • Higher oil exports → larger trade surplus • Stronger BRL → better external stability • Improved current account dynamics • Rising fiscal revenues & investment Low-cost pre-salt production is turning a global shock into a macro tailwind. This is what commodity power looks like. Full breakdown ↓ app.openmacro.ai/insights/how-t…

Japan’s macro picture is simply unsustainable: massive debt (>250% of GDP), rising inflation, and still ultra-low rates againts other developed countries Interest rate differentials are too low to attract demand for JGBs, especially from abroad. With yields creeping up and no strong foreign demand, the BoJ is effectively trapped

Very proud of the last two weeks. For the first time, retail investors are accessing institutional-grade strategies through our quantitative models. Since the war began, we’ve only had one negative week. This is what systematic macro looks like. Access the platform: app.openmacro.ai

China is breaking from within; • ~80M empty homes • Property prices ~40% below peaks • 31 straight months of declines • Youth unemployment ~16–19% • Fertility ~1.0 Real estate was ~25–30% of the economy — now a multi-year drag Deflation, debt, overcapacity, weak confidence. Not a cycle. A structural slowdown. Full breakdown: app.openmacro.ai/insights/china…

@KobeissiLetter If you don’t understand why this is happening: Iran is completely dependent on oil exports. Cut those → FX collapses → inflation explodes → war financing breaks. That’s not pressure. That’s systemic collapse.

BREAKING: Iranian state media warns of "unprecedented military action" if US seizures of Iranian-linked vessels continues. Last night, WSJ reported that President Trump instructed his aides to prepare for an "extended blockade" of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil prices are nearing $114/barrel.

This is how slowdowns actually show up. Not layoffs, but hiring just… stops. Higher oil works like a hidden tax, squeezing margins and consumer spending at the same time. Companies don’t panic fire, they quietly freeze expansion plans. That’s why the data lags reality. The real risk is accumulation. 10k fewer jobs a month doesn’t shock the system, but over time it erodes momentum. By the time layoffs hit, the slowdown is already locked in.

Goldman Sachs warns that the current oil shock, driven by the conflict in Iran, could reduce US job growth by approximately 10,000 positions per month for the rest of 2026, primarily through reduced hiring rather than mass layoffs.

At that level the currency isn’t just weak, it’s losing function. When FX collapses this far, people stop treating it as a store of value and start treating it as something to exit as fast as possible. That shifts the economy into survival mode. Dollarization rises, inflation feeds on itself, and policy tools lose effectiveness because confidence is already broken. The real signal isn’t the exchange rate, it’s trust. Once that goes, stabilizing the currency becomes political, not just economic.

IRAN'S CURRENCY DROPS TO RECORD LOW LEVEL OF 1.8 MILLION RIAL TO THE U.S. DOLLAR - ISNA

Calling it a “peak signal” ignores the structure. MSTR isn’t a passive holder, it’s a leveraged proxy with reflexivity built in.When BTC rises, their equity premium expands, they raise capital, buy more BTC, and reinforce the move. When it reverses, that loop works in the opposite direction and downside accelerates.The real question isn’t whether $100k was a top, it’s whether the financing window stays open. If it does, the bid persists longer than fundamentals suggest. If it shuts, the unwind isn’t gradual, it’s mechanical.

LATEST: ⚡ Bloomberg's Mike McGlone says Michael Saylor "double dog dared the market gods" by doubling down on Bitcoin after it hit $100K, calling it a "classic peak sign" and saying MSTR has "a lot more downside."