@s_m_marandi Traders have established record short positions in Brent crude, and Monday, the 22nd, marks the final trading day for WTI futures. The reopening of the Straits may have mitigated the potential for a short squeeze.
English
Bugcat Capoo
502 posts
Within hours of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, the Zionist regime agreed to a ceasefire and stopped killing Lebanese children. By morning, Iran gradually reopened the strait. Trump now issues hollow threats to claim credit for the opening - but the timing says otherwise.
English
JustDarioCigarTime - Episode 82
⚠️ Why The Moment The Oil Market Starts To Panic Is Very Close 🎙️
- Trump admits the world is running out of oil reserves
- Why the setup is perfect for a massive oil short squeeze to unfold
youtu.be/QKVXQof72j8?si…
YouTube
English
Bugcat Capoo retuiteado
@MarioNawfal Even if the Straits were accessible, the potential for an Israeli missile strike on a tanker within the Straits would deter ship operators from utilizing the route, and Lloyds would likely decline to insure such vessels.
English
🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The Iran deal may be a surrender in disguise, built to buy time before the next war...
Glenn Diesen isn't convinced the memorandum of understanding ever gets implemented in full.
His suspicion is that Washington is mostly buying time.
His reasoning is pointed.
Since Trump has openly admitted to a serious fuel shortage, Glenn reads the agreement as essentially a surrender, designed to ease pressure on oil prices and let the US replenish its strategic reserves.
From there, he expects Washington could stretch the process out before circling back to military conflict, especially since he sees little real appetite in the US for actually coexisting with Iran.
@Glenn_Diesen
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russia may decide it has to hit a NATO country directly, and that's exactly how a nuclear war starts. Glenn Diesen says the recent, unprecedented drone strikes on Moscow mark a serious escalation, extending a pattern of provocations that have already targeted Russia's nuclear early-warning systems and retaliatory capabilities. Russia will likely hit back at Ukraine, he says, but here's the trap he flags: those strikes may not deter anyone, because NATO, the side actually supplying the resources, doesn't treat Ukrainian casualties as a strategic loss. That, Glenn warns, could push Moscow toward a chilling conclusion, that the only way to draw a real red line is to strike a NATO country directly, even knowing it risks triggering nuclear war. @Glenn_Diesen
English
@steve_hanke Even if the Straits were accessible, the potential for an Israeli missile strike on a tanker within the Straits would deter ship operators from utilizing the route, and Lloyds would likely decline to insure such vessels.
English
Commodity market guru Jeff Currie remains bullish on oil's long-term outlook:
“One thing that’s very clear in the oil market is you've lost most of the players… They’re not willing to play in the market anymore… I think that that’s another very bullish long-term driver here.”
English
@CommodMkt @davidfaber @SaraEisen @CNBC Even if the Straits were accessible, the potential for an Israeli missile strike on a tanker within the Straits would deter ship operators from utilizing the route, and Lloyds would likely decline to insure such vessels.
English
I joined @davidfaber and @SaraEisen @CNBC yesterday to discuss the oil market's response to the Iran ceasefire agreement.
My view is that the market is overshooting to the downside.
Over the past two weeks, physical and financial players have aggressively destocked in anticipation of a deal. That helps explain recent price action, but it also creates pent-up demand that is likely to re-emerge in the weeks ahead.
The on-again, off-again nature of the negotiations created extraordinary uncertainty. It became increasingly difficult for participants to hold positions, leading many to simply step aside.
Even now, uncertainty remains. The focus has shifted from securing a ceasefire to ensuring it holds.
There are three critical next steps: fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz, untangling global shipping logistics, and restoring confidence that vessels entering the Gulf won't be caught up in a renewed conflict.
Thank you to David, Sara and the @Squawkstreet team for having me on.
Squawk on the Street@SquawkStreet
"You have a lot of pent-up demand that's going to come back into the market and push this market back up to higher levels." Why @abaxx_exchange Executive Co-Chairman @CommodMkt thinks oil prices are overshooting to the downside: cnbc.com/video/2026/06/…
English
@RealPepeEscobar Even if the Straits were accessible, the potential for an Israeli missile strike on a tanker within the Straits would deter ship operators from utilizing the route, and Lloyds would likely decline to insure such vessels.
English
CLOSED.
To be reopened only on one condition.
On @Transition_Protocol" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">youtube.com/@Transition_Pr…,
Mr. Z and I a few minutes ago recorded two back to back EXCLUSIVES, soon to be posted here on X:
1. The real story about Versailles.
2. The latest crucial message from Iran to the White House.
English
@Kylechasse @PeterSchiff Even if the Straits were accessible, the potential for an Israeli missile strike on a tanker within the Straits would deter ship operators from utilizing the route, and Lloyds would likely decline to insure such vessels.
English
Oil is falling and everyone's relieved.
@PeterSchiff says that's exactly the wrong read.
The Strait of Hormuz just cracked back open this week.
25 ships Thursday, the most since April. Normal is closer to 90 a day. And the mines still aren't cleared.
Open today. Closed next month?
Nobody knows.
Full video in comments 👇
English
@Oliver_MSA "Gold and silver will end this year at new ATH and continue higher". So, will it be another ATH besides the one in January?
English
@BCapoo11280 @DarioCpx The real world operational minimum is actually closer to 150mm barrels. At 70mm it would be unusable sludge...
English
Trump: “I had to make a deal with Iran because we only had 4 weeks of oil reserves left”
I am looking forward to traders figuring out that the “4 weeks” count started on the last week of May and not this Wednesday
JustDario@DarioCpx
While I was sleeping Trump admitted he agreed to the MoU with Iran to avert a global economic crisis because the world would have run out of reserves in 4 weeks confirming my strong suspects I am afraid, but Trump didn’t avert the oil crisis at all because he waited too long
English
@DarioCpx Reports say the SPR has 349 mmb left (5th May IEA report?). 70 mmb is the minimum before the salt cavern walls have integrity issues. If they draw down 10 mmb/d, they only have 29.7 days left, which matches what Trump rightly said about having only 4 weeks left.
English
Traders haven't realised yet that Cushing tank bottoms were reached LAST WEEK, and we are now already beyond that threshold - I believe they will realise soon when they won't find enough oil to settle their future contracts and the panic in the market kicks off
JustDario@DarioCpx
Because trading algorithms are hard-wired to headlines, especially to anything Trump says, the whole market is max short right when the crude oil supply crunch is about to bite. These types of market dislocations don't correct gently, but abruptly. Be ready for the unthinkable.
English
@anasalhajji x.com/i/status/20673…
Trump admits to US having 4 weeks left of oil reserves.
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump admits why he had no choice but to end the war: "We would have run out of [oil] reserves in about 4 weeks." Writer: Mhedi
English
@CommodMkt x.com/i/status/20673…
Trump admits US has 4 weeks of oil left in reserves.
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump admits why he had no choice but to end the war: "We would have run out of [oil] reserves in about 4 weeks." Writer: Mhedi
English
The real reason oil is below $100/bbl. It isn’t fundamentals. It’s capital aversion. Policy uncertainty has made oil too volatile to hold. Investor VaR has collapsed by c.$5B. Open interest is at the lowest level in years. Global oil stocks are still drawing 5-6mb/d; however, investors say they don't care.
Start with investor VaR - the best measure of how much capital is willing to engage with oil. It has collapsed to $1.4B (see chart). Not forced out by rising rates, sanctions or external margin calls. Investors are simply choosing not to hold. The policy noise - deal on/off, attack, not attack - has made the carry uncompensable.
VaR compression has one direct consequence: it drains open interest. Contracts are closed. Market depth disappears. 2026 YTD open interest decline is the worst on record. Unlike 2022, there’s no rates shock or sanctions forcing the exit. This is capital aversion.
Managed Money VaR and YTD OI Change
English
@aeberman12 x.com/i/status/20673…
Trump admits the US has 4 weeks of oil left in reserves.
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump admits why he had no choice but to end the war: "We would have run out of [oil] reserves in about 4 weeks." Writer: Mhedi
English
Reality check
You see someone bleeding out on the ground but wait 3 months to call 911
Anyone with half a brain could see Hormuz closed was bleeding out the economy
Except Trump
GIF
Rory Johnston@Rory_Johnston
It remains very interesting to me that Trump is so much more keen to make a deal today to prevent market mayhem when crude prices are well off their peak and equity markets are near all-time-highs Yes, I also think a longer Hormuz closure would by calamitous, but I digress...
English
@DarioCpx x.com/i/status/20673…
Trump has acknowledged he succumbed to economic pressures to end the war.
Robert A. Pape@ProfessorPape
Trump admits he buckled to the pressure of a global economic collapse This is another way saying Iran has all the leverage —and will going forward
English
JustDarioDaily - Podcast
⚠️ The Oil Market Is Betting On An Impossible Trump's Miracle 🎙️
- Trump rush to reopen Hormuz
- The grim reality traders are ignoring
#OOTT
youtu.be/IMECiV6P9vY?si…
YouTube
English
@DarioCpx x.com/i/status/20673…
Trump admits US has 4 weeks of oil left in reserves
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump admits why he had no choice but to end the war: "We would have run out of [oil] reserves in about 4 weeks." Writer: Mhedi
English
@ProfessorPape x.com/i/status/20673…
Also, Trump admits US has 4 weeks of oil reserves left.
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump admits why he had no choice but to end the war: "We would have run out of [oil] reserves in about 4 weeks." Writer: Mhedi
English
Trump admits he buckled to the pressure of a global economic collapse
This is another way saying Iran has all the leverage —and will going forward
English
Bugcat Capoo retuiteado
We have identified a new citizenship test to be rolled out across Australia.
#GoldenRetriever
English