CapitalEdge

6.5K posts

CapitalEdge

CapitalEdge

@Capital_Edge_

Cross-Asset Market Analysis & Research

Australia Se unió Haziran 2019
559 Siguiendo4K Seguidores
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CapitalEdge
CapitalEdge@Capital_Edge_·
Periodical reminder that the S&P requires 'reasons' to sell off, and not reasons to rally. Also, another reminder that there is very little benefit in getting married to any particular bias, but were you to get married to one, in the long run history favours a bullish one. There will be fluctuations and sell offs along the way, but for better long-term mental health you'd probably want to be the person on the right far more often than the person on the left. Just saying. Have fun.
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CapitalEdge@Capital_Edge_·
@MrMBrown 100%, tough to decide which is worse though, the forecasts or Pill's vote
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Michael Brown
Michael Brown@MrMBrown·
@Capital_Edge_ was just making that very point! they're not worth the paper that they're written on, and actually just end up with policymakers having to tie themselves in knots at the presser
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Michael Brown
Michael Brown@MrMBrown·
The BoE have issued so many scenarios & permutations that they provide almost no signal whatsoever…plus, knowing their luck, they’ll still get the eventual outcome wrong anyway 😂
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CapitalEdge
CapitalEdge@Capital_Edge_·
@LostitNft 100% it's such a useless exercise as it all depends on oil and the conflict like you mentioned.
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I like who I am on Tw1tter.
I like who I am on Tw1tter.@LostitNft·
@Capital_Edge_ This is a panic saving exercise. It's going to be catastrophic. The huge margin of error being Trump. I'd like some if what the bank is smoking.
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CapitalEdge
CapitalEdge@Capital_Edge_·
So basically, inflation could be lower or higher this year, and next, and the year after that. Is there even a point of providing forecasts when there is such a huge margin for error.
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CapitalEdge
CapitalEdge@Capital_Edge_·
@MrMBrown Bailey has a song in mind right now... And I swear you're just like a Pill 'Stead of makin' me better You keep makin' me ill
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Michael Brown
Michael Brown@MrMBrown·
Huw Pill...what an utter moron...
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Fusion Markets
Fusion Markets@FusionMarkets·
Heading into the ECB, markets price a first hike by June and 3 hikes total by year-end. At the same time, the Citi Economic Surprice Index continues to drift lower as data continues to dissapoint market expectations.
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PiQ
PiQ@PiQSuite·
Arno (@Capital_Edge_) on Brent Crude positioning
Fusion Markets@FusionMarkets

Brent positioning is flashing bearish. But the geopolitical backdrop couldn't be more bullish. So which one is right? The answer depends on what positioning is actually measuring right now, and it's not what most people think. Want to know more about the market? Drop your question in the comments. #CrudeOil #OilMarkets #Commodities #TradingPsychology #MarketPositioning #WTI #Brent #ICE #NYMEX #MacroTrading #EnergyMarkets #GeopoliticalRisk #TradingMindset #AskArno

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Fusion Markets
Fusion Markets@FusionMarkets·
Brent positioning is flashing bearish. But the geopolitical backdrop couldn't be more bullish. So which one is right? The answer depends on what positioning is actually measuring right now, and it's not what most people think. Want to know more about the market? Drop your question in the comments. #CrudeOil #OilMarkets #Commodities #TradingPsychology #MarketPositioning #WTI #Brent #ICE #NYMEX #MacroTrading #EnergyMarkets #GeopoliticalRisk #TradingMindset #AskArno
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Fusion Markets
Fusion Markets@FusionMarkets·
Quick comparison on rate expectations for the FOMC following yesterday's decision. Notable hawkish shift across the curve, and rate markets pricing reflects what we know right now, but the path is HIGHLY dependent on the path for oil prices and inflation.
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Fusion Markets
Fusion Markets@FusionMarkets·
$USDJPY pushing towards the July high near 162... the BoJ is in a tough spot because it's hard to argue against the fundamental upside. Might see some jawboning from the MoF later.
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Fusion Markets
Fusion Markets@FusionMarkets·
$US100 within striking distance of all-time highs as $GOOGL and $AMZN push higher in after-market trading following solid earnings results.
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Fusion Markets
Fusion Markets@FusionMarkets·
Yields will rise after the FOMC sees rate markets pricing 17 basis points of tightening by the middle of next year. Goes without saying, but the blue line (oil) is all that matters for these expectations right now.
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CapitalEdge
CapitalEdge@Capital_Edge_·
@VolaTim @PiQSuite 😂😂 There was ample opportunity, but unfortunately I didn't, next time though, just for you Tim
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Fusion Markets
Fusion Markets@FusionMarkets·
Interesting setup in Brent positioning at the moment. Similar to the divergence between ICE and NYMEX in both March and June 2022.
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