@momentmal2022 @JoachimMo1985 Exactly, the world is too complex so it's easy just to trade what works *most* of the time. Better to use our mental energy to manage risk instead.
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Dan
7K posts
Dan
@Dan_Trend
Investor and Systematic Futures Trader
Australia Se unió Temmuz 2014
470 Siguiendo941 Seguidores
@Dan_Trend @JoachimMo1985 Judging is always subjectiv. And at the same time I would not be surprised when we enter a clear bear market. All is possible and we project our framework on reality. That is why ai trade systematic. I am always a bit pessimistic. 😁
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Weekly recap: No place to hide, -3.26% for the week ($SPY: -1.8%). Current DD: -5.62%
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@shibasurfa Nice, long VIX didn't hedge this off very well.
Short bonds has been very nice though, I'm short all the european short term bonds.
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@Dan_Trend ALDX idio short, factor shorts up and equity put hedges + 10Y puts, GTC longs also working nicely. Have been 200%+ net during this whole drawdown, just trading hedges around my book. Got the adrenaline pumping
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@JoachimMo1985 @momentmal2022 Yeah but I don't trust myself to judge, sometimes the market believes some utter bullshit that he says and I can't fade that!
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@Dan_Trend @momentmal2022 It is out of his hands, it is not easy to TACO this time.
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@thiccyth0t This is the Trump term pattern, all over the commodity markets in the lasts 12 months...
Stairs up, elevator down with broken cables.
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@momentmal2022 @JoachimMo1985 But if the market does believe it, I'll get a bit slaughtered on my energy longs
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@momentmal2022 @JoachimMo1985 Well there's some kind of 🌮 so maybe a temporary bounce gives MR the movement we need on Monday
x.com/zriboua/status…
Zineb Riboua@zriboua
This was never meant to be a "forever war," Trump hit IRGC at its lowest, at its weakest, and at a time when it simply couldn’t recruit or retain its legitimacy.
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@MichaelNaussCMT Good article, gave me an idea for an augmented MR model a bit different to my others.
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Glad I learned this before today. My shopping list today should have much more of an edge.
Michael Nauss, CMT, CAIA@MichaelNaussCMT
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Metals sell off was across the board. Oil shock is bad for global growth and bearish industrial metals and just a shock to global risk assets in general. I think it’s a “correlation going to one” story for gold/silver, which had a flash crash as everything, esp stuff that went up a lot, was sold. Macro fundamental was catalyst, positioning was amplifier and catalyst. Silver has some industrial use too. Gold just got tossed out like baby with the bath water.
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We are in the midst of a hot war in the Middle East, with Oil prices kissing $120, a cooling (pre-war) labor market, and the odds of a recession ticking up from modest levels.
And despite all of this geopolitical economic chaos, Silver and Gold are both crashing.
Besides capital flow reversals and speculative unwind, can anyone explain what is driving this action?
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This is why I don't trade fundamentals, sometimes things make no sense.
So often it's just "under-reaction" which is the driving force behind trends.
Javier Blas@JavierBlas
Fascinating to see where Brent and TTF are trading right now after the last 24 hours of attacks and counter attacks. Brent is up a mere 3%, and TTF is lower than at the peak on Tuesday March 3rd. The absorption capacity of the energy market either reflects a) a misplaced optimism in TACO, b) a market that was way looser than thought, c) all of the above plus policy actions like IEA release and gas-to-coal switching.
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@investingidiocy True.
I'd bet many discretionary traders drawdowns were even longer too. I know I've had one like that in the paat, on all trades/investments.
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@Dan_Trend I've had a 2 year drawdown on the whole system. And it's still a "valid" system (in the sense that performance never exceeded the statistical envelope of the backtest).
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Imagine thinking 9 months is "the long term"
I have food in my freezer that's older than your drawdown
TradeQuantiX@TradeQuantiX
Sticking with trading systems for the long term sucks sometimes. This is the live equity curve of an actual system I trade. It sat in a large drawdown for about 5.5 months, almost giving back all it gained. But, I trusted the system was real and robust, the markets just weren't providing the opportunity this system looks for. This is the kind of thing you have to find comfort in to be a systematic trader. Trusting your models are working, when when they are losing money.
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@ScottPh77711570 Just had a small short open up.. so yeah def gonna go up
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Just sold the last of a gold position i’ve held since 2019
You know is gonna go up now
Sorry
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@Dan_Trend @choffstein bro AEH is actually genius you just casually dropped the most efficient title upgrade of the year howd you come up with that so quick
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A peer reached out to say they're publishing a paper on portable alpha with a clever title using "stack" in it.
There's a lot of alpha in that title.
So, I'm front-running them and publishing an article tomorrow using it.
This is how information markets become efficient.
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@stevehou It's just the usual twitter fun - one post does the rounds, gets kicked a few times, then eventually someone defends it and they move onto the next 😁
It'll be over soon, there will be a new kicking bag after the next badly worded tweeter pushes the post button a bit too quick
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I don’t understand this either. Futures are not a perfect risk neutral forecasts/expectations of the future prices, but they surely can’t be untethered to them either? If everyone expected crude spot to go up to $150 and remain there, futures will go up a lot. The fact that futures aren’t lower reflect risk-adjusted expectations that oil prices will eventually come down. What am I missing?
Jessica Nutt@JessicaNutt96
The econ pedants really need to stop with their “futures curve is not a price forecast” nonsense. If it’s a liquid tradeable asset what else could it be?
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@thiccyth0t @orrdavid TTF (Dutch Nat Gas) futures closed just before that article. Closed 1pm EDT (18:00 MET), will be interesting to see how it opens at 3am EDT.
Still below the spike from the 9th.
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The big energy risk was Iran causing extreme damage to neighboring country's infrastructure. This damage would be long term rather than a temporary (and likely over soon) blockade.
Iran tried the attack but it pretty much failed to cause that serious of damage. The number of missiles launched was low, and the damage they caused is a lot less than I would have guessed a month ago. Unless there is follow through soon, I'm going to call it. That this conflict is over. That Iran is out of steam.
Also, that Iran did this further alienates them from their neighbors.
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