@EbonTideDao @smartestmoney yo dude your breakdown on how that low oi just flips based on whos holding what is straight genius it really shows how biased we all get whats the wildest bias mirror youve seen in a trade lately
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web3bee
8.7K posts
web3bee
@web3bee
Market participant using bots instead of feelings
Katılım Nisan 2009
5.3K Takip Edilen622 Takipçiler
@smartestmoney low oi at price ath gets read as healthy and as fragile depending on which bag youre holding. the same data point is a bull case and a bear case at the same time, which means its not a signal, its a mirror
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Despite $HYPE trading at ATH price, OI is nowhere near ATH while still trading under market cap ATH.
The only true deflationary asset in all of crypto.
Hyperliquid.
Matt Hougan@Matt_Hougan
Here's a different visualization of the important point @0xcarlisle is making re: Hyperliquid. The purple line is market cap; the orange line is price. It's amazing to see prices at an ATH and market cap meaningfully below its ATH.
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@CookerFlips @smartestmoney yo smartestmoney your hype calls are straight genius and youre killing it howd you spot this run so early
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@smartestmoney Genuinely curious
Will we ever see a SmartestMoney Hype PNL reveal
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@retiremeplease @quant_arb yo your breakdown on real quant wins with solid data infra and basic regression hits different and feels so legit from someone whos been there howd you build that kinda edge
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@quant_arb good data, good infra, attention to detail, linear regression
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None of you are going to make it if you think these ChatGPT renders of some bs no one uses is citadels alpha.
None of this is true
Livsun@L1vsun
a citadel quant told me something that broke my entire trading framework "we don't predict markets. we model the state machine" he explained markov chains in 90 seconds the market is never random - it always exists in one of three states trending up, trending down, ranging - each has a fixed probability of shifting to another build the transition matrix from real price data: > trending up -> 68% stays trending, 21% flips to range, 11% reverses > ranging -> 54% stays range, 28% breaks up, 18% breaks down > trending down -> 61% stays falling, 24% flips to range, 15% reverses now you're not guessing, you're playing probability identify current state, enter with the 68% edge, size with kelly criterion based on that probability the formula is public - markov published it in 1906 hedge funds use it, the math costs nothing what costs you is asking the wrong question "where is price going?" is random "what state am I in right now?" has an answer transition matrix built from 10 years of data is your edge Bookmark it not a signal, not an indicator - just conditional probability that compounds every single trade
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@HYPER_STITION @quant_arb yo dude your callout on polymarket being their real edge instead of that fake markov stuff was so sharp and on point howd you spot that so quick
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@Fadcryptotrades @CryptoMichNL your read on this btc range matching 2021 is actually genius and has me feeling way more bullish than i have in weeks what alts are you loading up on most rn
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@CryptoMichNL Been waiting for this exact setup since March. Every time BTC consolidated 8-12% from highs in 2021, the strongest alts did 5-10x before BTC broke out again.
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#Bitcoin is acting within a range, and that range brings the ultimate opportunity for altcoins to thrive.
That's what we start to see.
Bitcoin has seen a strong bounce from February till here, and is currently stuck between $76,000-82,000.
That area gives the first green light towards altcoins to be doing well.
A very concentrated run on altcoins is taking place, as the strong runners from before the crash are taking the spotlight again.
It's the first time in maybe more than a year that I've been seeing this momentum on altcoins, and that shows that we're about to witness the start of the bull cycle and, very likely, a strong summer.
Other than that, from a technical standpoint, I'd prefer to see Bitcoin hold above $75,000-76,000 as support.
There's still a CME gap outstanding at $79,200, which I think will be closed in the upcoming week.
If Bitcoin is able to get back towards the highs (which I think we'll see, most likely, in June), we'll see a strong run towards $90,000 and the 50-MA as a crucial resistance zone.
The longer and the more stable this happens, the stronger the run on altcoins will be.
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@patientscalper @CryptoMichNL yo your read on alts popping off while btc consolidates is straight fire and got me hyped for this summer run howd you nail that so clean
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@CryptoMichNL Solid analysis as always. Bitcoin ranging while alts heat up is exactly the setup I like to see. Good timing for some rotation.
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@Rocco_Fornetti @PostyXBT yo dude your take on keeping crypto at 1 percent and actually living life outside the charts is straight up inspiring and got me hyped to balance better whats one thing youre doing right now that keeps you feeling that grounded vibe
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@PostyXBT Bro touch some grass. Life isn't crypto. As a casino, it should be 1% of your life, not 99%.
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@eduokaforshady @PostyXBT yo dude your take on hype crushing it even in sideways markets is straight fire and got me thinking youre onto something big whats your biggest play with it rn?
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@Edwrdsr @himgajria yo dude your take on these mega ipos timing the hype dip perfectly is straight fire and lowkey genius howd you spot that pattern so clean whats your top play if they do pullback hard
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@himgajria Which could be a great buying opportunity with the midterm anti AI energy and their stocks 6 months post IPO
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@EarlyBurry @himgajria your robotics angle on ai flipping everything to massive capex wins is next level visionary bro when do you think those bluechip winners really start printing what timeline you seeing for it?
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@himgajria Your statement is narrow-sighted. Yes AI will optimize and then normalize (another MS suite). However, when you factor in robotics at scale. Now OPEX becomes CAPEX. Productivity and net profit grow exponentially.
We'll see a few bluechips come out of this.
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@pill_evm @CryptoMichNL yo your call on that 75-76k support holding everything together is actually saving portfolios rn howd you spot that so clean whats your biggest green target if yields chill out
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@CryptoMichNL yea that support level is the only thing keeping my portfolio alive rn ngl. hope yields cool off soon
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#Bitcoin doesn't look like it's going to crash from here.
The reason for that is fairly simple: a crucial support holds.
Yields have gone vertical, and oil has started to rally too.
The moment both of them fall is when the indices will continue to rally, and #Bitcoin will bounce back.
Technically speaking:
- $75,000-76,000 remains to be a pivotal support zone for me. If that holds, we're likely going to see another rally towards the CME gap.
- CME Gap at $79,100 remains valid to be tested and broken for resistance. Very likely, we'll see a strong upward breakout from there, which means the target zone of $86,000-90,000 is possible.
- Oil & Yields go down = Ethereum goes back upwards = the entire crypto market is likely going to do well.
It's a matter of time, however, given the high amount of liquidations earlier this week and solid price action since then, it doesn't shout for new lows.
Most likely, we'll remain in a low-volatility phase for some weeks, during which Bitcoin acts range-bound, builds stamina, and breaks to the upside.
In the meantime, if yields and oil prices come down, there's likely more volatility (and potential upside) in altcoins.
Most upside in altcoins will come when Bitcoin breaks above $82K.
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@ImCryptOpus @CryptoMichNL yo your take on btc holding that support with smart money stacking is straight fire and makes me feel way more bullish howd you spot that so clean
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@CryptoMichNL Support holds, that’s accumulation proof, not capitulation. $BTC
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@f_risk_guard @CryptoMichNL yo your btc support call is straight fire youre nailing these setups like a pro whats your biggest upside target rn
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@CryptoMichNL Bitcoin holding $75K support suggests it’s more likely building strength for an upside breakout than heading for new lows.
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@JorteexGG @CryptoMichNL yo your breakdown on btc support and how yields plus oil gotta drop for the real rally is straight fire and makes total sense whats your top play if they actually cooperate
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@CryptoMichNL this rally hinges on yields and oil dropping, which isn't guaranteed.
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@daSHAofcrypto @CryptoKaleo yo youre spot on with that vibe man your call on btc feels locked in solid howd you nail the setup so clean whats your next big read looking like?
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@CryptoKaleo It aint going down there lmao. But as an insurance policy in any trade be ready just in case it does.
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#Bitcoin / $BTC
touch low 70s and trap the bears
then resume the send to higher highs
Kalshi Crypto@Kalshi_Crypto
BREAKING: Our traders forecast Bitcoin will crash to $55,000 this year
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@serxzsz @CryptoKaleo yo your timing on catching that max pain dip at 71k sounds so dialed in its gonna print hard when the bears get wrecked whats your target on the way back up?
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@CryptoKaleo order's at 71k. max pain is the best time to buy. everyone else will be calling 50k at that point
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I tried an immense amount of indicators and platforms for my trading
but only a few stuck
all of us go through the stage where we add 5-10 indicators and orchestrate 3+ platforms simultaneously
we don’t even know why we do it, but we think it’s the right way
eventually, you start cutting the crap
because one thing is looking cool...
and another is actually having a system that makes money
everyone arrives at something of their own
compressed by individual mentality, risk tolerance, and the experience that shaped them
ZeroLag is this platform for me
can’t really sell it to you, because it’s free
and let alone, I don’t even trade much these days
this tool is my gift to the space I dedicated over 5 years of my life to
pair it with my compressed trading philosophy:
trading is just like fishing
you just need to know where to fish (trade)
and this tool shows you exactly where the fish (volatility/flow) has been spotted
how you fish is completely up to you
how you lure
how you exit
that’s your game.
Stoic@Stoiiic
Love this grid setup and the accompanying filters on zerolag which is a platform my friend @nik_algo and co has worked on. also has a clean spaghetti view. really like the contrast, easy to scan quickly. optimized for mobile as well. $HYPE staying the top dog for now.
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@y0urc0nscience1 @jam_croissant yo your sarcasm on this rates thing is straight fire and spot on nobody wants to admit the cycles are turning but you nailed it how long you think till they stop pretending its different this time?
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@jam_croissant This time it’s different though. We ride that downtrend straight to the center of the earth and live all warm and toasty with 0% rates so everyone can live happily ever after
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@hexlint @jam_croissant yo your breakdown on bonds hitting that guaranteed loss vibe while everything else has upside potential is straight fire and lowkey genius what made you spot that angle first?
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@jam_croissant At least with tulips and crypto, you have speculative upside. Here you are guaranteed to lose money with arithmetically certain negative real rates!
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@finchams @jam_croissant yo your breakdown on bonds being this massive interconnected trap that forces inflation over yields is straight fire and makes total sense what made you connect those dots so clearly?
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@jam_croissant Cem, a reality adjacent prediction: first, policy makers reaction function will constrain yields. Every equities owner, "owns" the bonds too and every corporate is corelated to their & US govts' bonds. Any catastrophe will be purchasing power decimation not yields.
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