Dan

I think of the risk allocations in my new system like the food pyramid: * Healthy long term stuff gets the most risk/money (the bottom) * Less robust short term stuff gets the least risk/money (the top) Gemini seems decent at illustrating the concept:

@GripFangWolf @zerodha Probably not for gold, but some futures also increase margin when the contract becomes the front month. Best to always keep a large enough buffer, stops don't always work either. eg see Copper 30 July, I lost 2 extra ATRs below my stop price.

Any idea why margin requirement might suddenly go up on an overnight long position in GOLD futures which was already profitable and became even more profitable after open today? I started the day with a positive available margin but am suddenly getting margin called! @zerodha?

@TheRealDavey2 Not just the extra tax on savings/shares, but the increased living costs - once investors leave the market us renters are fucked.. their policies do nothing to increase housing available to rent. The only thing people can invest in is renovations of their owner occupied homes.

If you're a young Australian trying to save up for a house deposit, know that the capital gains tax increase announced by Labor absolutely screws you over. You want to buy a house in the next few years. Labor's new taxes mean your savings need to be invested for 15+ years to reach the current discount.

@scottcohen638 @cantonmeow Still sad because they're in UK and 5/7 days are ☁️

@cantonmeow What about those who are sidelined as they sold for a 140K GBP profit?

I'd hate this bull market too if I am sidelined and couldn't get a position in but I have a hard time buying the dip because it ran up way too far way too fast and I'm worried about a crash to come so I can buy it but when a crash does come I probably wouldn't buy but I am not sure if a crash is even coming because I just hate the market in general and I hate everyone who told me that the crash would get worse because it didn't and I wish I didn't try to sell and buy back lower or try to raise cash at the wrong time because this is a very sucky feeling that I don't know how to resolve and even today's red day is scary and I don't feel like buying so I ask influencers if these are still good entry points but the reality is that influencers are just regular people with thoughts and they change all the time but when I pay for paid services I don't necessarily always get good advice not that they're providing advice anyway and I know I'm responsible for my decisions but I cannot help but to blame them because I'm too weak to blame myself as I'm just a retail investor and I don't know why the market is playing with my emotions but this is what's happening and this is the worst feeling on earth because I cannot see the bigger picture and I don't understand that the best action is to stay int he market and to do nothing but I also dislike permabulls because they don't help me time the market and avoid draw downs either so I'm just a very conflicted and whiny person but that's OK because I'm hiding behind a keyboard and blah blah blah blah blah blah blah

@investingidiocy Nope, futures are not an asset ;) Had fun explaining that to my accountant when doing the trading stock calculations.

Wait.... do I have holdings?

@average_jo21098 @PeteWargent Thanks, looks a bit too logical to be considered.. Sadly many fall for the governments blame-shifting tricks.

@Dan_Trend @PeteWargent Yep. Thoroughly covered by the HIA hia.com.au/our-industry/n…

this will be interesting as this debate has been raging since...well, about 1987 given transitional arrangements probably won't see the full impacts for 2-3 yrs (?)

@yupitchris @Ag42530382A @AvidCommentator Lol head in the sand.. If they can't afford property what else they going to do? Look at "Tash Invests" and "Queenie Tan" both started accumulating ETFs at 22 years old, plenty more out there.

@Ag42530382A @AvidCommentator Sure bro. Cool story.

This is Emily (hypothetical). She is 22 years old and works part time at a supermarket while at uni, she is very frugal and puts most of her pay into index fund ETF's. When she sells those she will be slugged at 30% minimum capital gains tax, despite being a low income earner.

@mbbagent At least no CGT to pay on my unlisted REITs, they're still down 😆

@Dan_Trend Yeah i suspect lots of people to do the same. What's your new plan?

It's a good thing my family trust is a charity, helping the poor every day.

@mbbagent Probably just a company. Or maybe multiple so we can decide who holds the shares and receives dividends etc... But have to decide in advance of doing any trading each year... wife is still working PAYG but one day will stop..

@TMFScottP You're right, but you're talking about the current state. Future state was always affected by investors crowding out owner occupiers into doing new builds (or investors doing new builds OTP etc). I figured it was obvious, but demand reduction doesn't stop at level1. Takes time..

A reminder: If rental stock is decreased by an investor selling, they must be selling to a new owner-occupier. That new owner-occupier is either a current renter or would be. So... rental stock declines at the same rate as rental demand. Supply doesn't 'disappear'!

@mbbagent Yeah, more annoyed at making effort to set things up right to then have to go through all the pain of redoing it all over again in a year or two.. Thankfully most of it is liquid as my main business is trading not property, can move stuff without CGT but what an own goal for Aus.

@Dan_Trend Mate my wife is a stay at home mother of 2 paying quarterly instalments and still getting an extra tax bill at the end of the year, tax for us is inevitable tbh. Luckily, the poor give it all back to us eventually.

@cmkusher And partial grandfathering of CGT mixed with post-2027 inflation adjustment then mixed with the floor of > 30% Messy AF.

Didn't Ken Henry recommend making the tax system simpler? What are we doing, everyone now pays a minimum 30% CGT, negative gearing for new properties but not existing ones.

@OwenRask Love how the speech said how much houses have gone up vs incomes, but they didn't mention the ratio of migration to new builds... Ignoring the root cause much?

So… rents are going WAY up tomorrow. Yikes.

@sjwill99 @AvidCommentator The timing usually due to someone being down, eg people made redundant during COVID that survived by selling their share portfolio. They've legitimately got no income that year, how is that a distortion?

@AvidCommentator It’s a smart idea to prevent investors structuring their affairs to time CGs for low income years. It gets rid of a pointless distortion.

This 30% minimum tax on all capital gains is brain dead (ex-pensioners and Centrelink recipients). This is the dumbest budget since 2014.

@OwenRask This kind of thing says it all: slogging someone extra when they have no job that year. It's purely an obscene tax grab this budget. 30% on discretionary trusts too + double taxation. Surely that means they're distributing it to workers by fixing bracket creep/income tax 🤦‍♂️nope

Honestly, I’m just sad. Crushing people with taxes is just… wrong. Dont we *want* Australia to lead the world in technology, healthcare, agriculture and so on? Dont we *want * that for our children? Don’t we want to foster innovation? This budget also crushes builders and trades (and therefore first home buyers or anyone trying to rent) and will eventually force many more people into social housing or homelessness.

@PeteWargent Going to get the Henry Kayes coming out again

it’s bad enough now, but imagine from July 1

@PeteWargent Good timing after missiles striking homes in Dubai takes the shine off the place.. They're going to make us use trusts & companies even more - great for accountants!

Capital gains tax to be along the highest in the world afr.com/policy/economy…

@nrossett @HenryAust1 @cjoye It's not a suddenly thing. Landlord interest in buying dries up, existing landlords get out, it becomes an owner occupiers market. What's left behind for renters is an even smaller pool of homes to share among many.

@HenryAust1 @cjoye How can Landlords suddenly increase the rent though? Why haven't they done so already? Agree on the punitive tax rates on work.

The single biggest winner from the budget: the tax-free owner-occupied home, which is where people will put their money. After the budget doubles the capital gains tax on productive businesses/assets from circa 23.5% to 46-47%, investors will understandably pull money from businesses, shares, commercial property and rental housing and plough it into their tax-free owner-occupied home. It's a great way to push up the prices of these houses. On the other hand, cutting negative gearing while also doubling CGT makes investing in rental properties extremely unattractive. It hammers the capital gain upside on any asset: shares, commercial property, the small or medium sized business you built, venture capital and private equity. It will give Australia the most unattractive capital gains tax in the WORLD (see table below)! So the government's policies will (1) push up owner-occupied house prices, (2) push up rents, and (3) reduce the capital available for investing in any small, medium or large sized business that is driving employment, innovation, growth and productivity/prosperity. Investors will go to other countries where they pay half the capital gains tax, or less. Since these pollies have never worked a day of their lives in the private sector, it is no surprise that when they decide to completely and unilaterally rewrite the entire tax system for all investors and businesses -- after promising before the last election more than 50 times NOT to change the capital gains tax and negative gearing rules -- that they would blow the entire Aussie economy up... Your best bet will be to buy a house, live in it, and hope they keep dropping 500,000 new people into the country every year to pump-up prices...

@TraceyRyniec @GunjanJS First world problems hey, enough time to wonder how some stranger handled getting more money..

@GunjanJS Do we care? I think people's interest in the crazy rich is ebbing.

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