SLewis336

@VolumeLeaders @Tallow_beach

$SPY, $QQQ, $VOO, $IVV - For the last six months, institutions have been distributing in this six-month range. Today, price broke down below it. 1/3

via @Cboe

Pre-war Strait of Hormuz flow (crude + products): ~20m b/d. My updated flow assumptions: Iran: ~1.2m b/d (SoH) UAE: ~1.0m b/d (Fujairah above pre-war) KSA: ~4.0m b/d (Yanbu above pre-war) Plus ~0.5m b/d (SoH tankers) Plus >1.0m b/d IEA oil emergency release Plus ~2.0m b/d Russia floating storage Total: ~10m b/d (~50% of pre-war; but almost all of it is crude) IEA/Russia is an absorption of a stock, creating a short-term and one-off flow.

IEA executive director Fatih Birol will deliver a statement on the release of the emergency oil sticks and “the next steps” at 2pm GMT today.

@gbrew24 $106 on the J? Na

In 20 minutes, Brent futures already up 3%, front month at $106. #OOTT

@ZeeContrarian1 It if is headed towards $200, how quickly do you think it could get there?

𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗧𝗵𝗲𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝗠𝗲𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗰𝗸𝗲𝗻 I want to start by giving Iran credit. In my Samson theory below, before the war began, I wrote that one possible scenario was that Iran would try to pull a Samson. If they felt cornered, they might try to hurt everyone around them and drag the region down with them. What actually happened is not exactly Samson, but it is close. Instead of pure destruction, Iran made a very rational move. Iran cannot defeat the United States militarily. The only real lever they have is oil. Their survival does not depend on winning the war. It depends on spiking oil toward 200 and creating pressure inside the United States. If oil goes high enough, Trump will face serious domestic pressure. So that is exactly what they are trying to do in any way possible, including bombing their own allies. I give them credit. It is a smart move. They are betting that Trump might chicken out if oil spikes hard enough. If oil reaches 200, that scenario becomes very real. For Iran, this is the only asymmetric weapon they have against a far superior adversary. Now we are entering a real game of chicken. Trump can signal that he is ready to destroy or take over Kharg Island. If that happens it is basically game over for Iran Islamic Regime. Iran on the other side is trying to push oil toward 200. If that happens it could become game over for Trump politically. Both sides escalating further means a crash scenario. It also seems that Israel and the United States may not have identical objectives in this war. Israel appears to want regime change. Trump has midterms. He cannot afford oil at 200. For Trump, two things would likely be enough to claim victory in this war. First, getting the enriched uranium out of Iran and proving that their nuclear capabilities have been destroyed. Second, pushing the longer range ballistic missile program back years, if not decades. There is no doubt that Israel and the United States are winning the military side of this war. Iran has already taken significant damage from these strikes that will take many years to recover. The real question is what Iran does next. It seems Iran understands the situation. Their priority now is probably survival of the regime. They also understand that Trump will want a fast win. So their strategy may be to absorb the damage while creating nuisance and pressure for another month or two, but not going all the way by closing the Strait of Hormuz, which would force Trump to take or destroy Kharg Island, hoping the Americans eventually settle for a deal. That is where the game theory becomes very real.

DEALER HEDGING DYNAMICS aka "How we move markets when hedging" join now and let's take a look at positions... x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

@AaronRentfrew Risk is clear boss , will try to punt a little long

While the options market is pricing continued stress, index-level positioning has already started to adjust: systematic macro strategy equity leverage is near multi-year medians, HF net leverage sits at the lower end of recent ranges, and SPX index puts are very well owned vs history. A meaningful amount of de-risking is already embedded in the tape and it is difficult to surprise a market that is already heavily hedged. This matters for what happens next: with lighter exposure and elevated hedge balances, the bar is higher for additional forced, positioning-driven de-risking at the index level. Plus, oil spikes tend to coincide with peak equity fear rather than the start of a prolonged drawdown; ask for Equities Typically Bottom Within Days of Oil Peaks for details. -All of this commentary is MS QDS, not mine.

amusing

@NoelSmith Agreed, now or soon. Getting out of most calls on this move and spreading the remaining out. Was watching OVX creep up all day and could sense something was brewing.

@FastOptions336 prolly oil down, vol down.

Opportun nah tay

@ZeeContrarian1 Would you consider monetizing only the short put if you had a quick down move?

KEY SPX LEVELS 3/10/26 This is the closest you'll get to inside information. These are the net 0DTE options positions at every strike in-range for market makers today It's the MOST ACTIVELY HEDGED position these options have the: - HIGHEST GAMMA - HIGHEST CHARM (thread)

@DeepDishEnjoyer What was the original trade?

lmao oil closing sale on friday was a 4 million dollar fumble

@moreproteinbars What’s your favorite way to monitor this?

Current situation Strait of Hormuz 🚫⚓️🚢🛢️

@DeepDishEnjoyer @dampedspring Ok

buy the dip again. buy the dip again, i dare you, i double dare you motherfucker, buy the dip again one more goddamn time!

Didn’t somebody say something about 25100 NQ? I swear some fat fukker on @NTLiveMedia said something about it.

This SPX flow is persistent- no market impact as this vega washes out when it comes to overall greek exposure but the idea is a good one "need to hedge an up 20% market this year but don't want to hold equities" (yes, these are CALL SPREADS, bought by customer)