Max Ha

Portfolio H2/25. +1%YTD, +12%LTM $KD $HAYPP.ST $META $EVO.ST $GOOG $AMZN $PLX.PA $BUR.L $IDT $TFF.PA $FERG Sold: $HRI $MRO.L

@DeepSailCapital @blondesnmoney What's your thesis for the cost side of incumbents?

I think “the companies can just vibe code their own software as a copy”narrative makes no sense, it’s really the cost to code a competitive AI software that competes drops materially and competition will creep in with lower costs/lower pricing, so easy to make software will face more competition.

I am not a software guy. Just a little unhinged thought: I think the software sector has done so well over the last 10 years with that "raising prices in line with broader inflation" junk. The cost of running $ASAN or $MNDY hasn't really increased that much, maybe costs 20 cents or 30 cents per new user, but they've raised prices like that because they can. Everyone's done it. Now that you can vibe code a decently functioning clone of dashboard, productivity software, etc, if even 1% or 2% of customers balk at the next "we are raising prices 6% because we can" announcement, churn shoots up and competition increases. So many of these software names are lobsters, the fat is in the tail (terminal value). If you double the discount rate on the tail, equity value is no bueno.

@Clyde_stocks Did he?

Nietzsche said one sign of a decaying culture is the elevation of chefs to celebrity status

A nation is born Stoic, and dies Epicurean

@GuiveAssadi Economies of scale

The bullshit jobs thesis is unconvincing without some market failure story. If half of all jobs serve no useful function, as Graeber claimed, why don’t new, smaller companies simply outcompete the over-staffed ones?

@FRValue They also didnt develop their own search engine.

Apple not developing its own AI means imho one of two things: either they’re dumb AF or the AI craze is massively overblown. I have no clue.

@Speedwell_LLC Loyalty. Customers receive flowers and a sympathy card from Chewy after informing them of a pet's passing, usually when canceling an Autoship order or requesting a refund for unopened food/medication. Chewy issues a refund and tells the owner to donate it to a local shelter.

Anyone have a good reason why Chewy exists? What were they able to do that allowed them to survive against Amazon? They are the only vertical ecommerce company that seems to fit squarely in Amazon’s competence that survived. (Carvana, clothing retailers, StockX, Etsy all have elements of their business that put them outside of $AMZN competency)

@Nathans_news @SashInvesting Regulatory concerns coupled with messy financials due to interest income / exposure see Edenred as comparable.

@SashInvesting How is this company trading at such a low valuation, with an annual growth of 10% and stable margins?

$PLX.PA FY 2025 results👇 🔸Rev +10.6% 🔸Recurring EBITDA +22.2%, EBITDA Margin: 36.6% 🔸Net profit +48% 🔸89% cash conversion ✅9% dividend hike ✅100m buyback program FY 2026 Outlook -High single-digit growth -Recurring EBITDA margin expansion by +100 bps I like what I see👀

This is one of the most educational interviews you can listen to. A CEO that created a 1000 bagger return being interviewed by the investor that made the most from it. microcapclub.com/a-1500-bagger-…

@TacticzH 'I have zero original ideas and source all my pitches from Q-Fintwit.' 🔥 Kidding. Seems mostly like a collection of high quality, scalable business models. We have the market cap agnostic approach in common. Risky exposure to AI and esp. China that is a bit out there.

ROAST MY PORTFOLIO! DO NOT HOLD BACK! What would you change/add/remove?

@ReturnsJourney Accelleron Industries (Switzerland). Ex $ABB spin-off. Industrial company: Large scale turbochargers for ships and back-up energy e.g. data centers. 50% of revenue from EM. 18% profit margin. 70% cash conversion.

Little crowdsource contest: Do you know a over 50% revenue from emerging market company that trades in Europe or North America or Australia/Japan and is; -Not an ADR/GDR -That is not in mining or energy -Profitable -A company like Delivery Hero for example trades in Germany, but most of the revenue is in EMs. A company like Patria investment trades in the US and is a mostly EM/Latam asset manager. I will give 3 month full access to my newsletter if you find me one I don't know or cover. My goal is to increase coverage. Post below: Thanks

@KairosPraxis Sir, are you familiar with the concept of limit orders?

Once again, missed out on adding to my ADYEN position at an incredible price because I was away from my computer for... *checks notes* 1 hour.

@leevalueroach More like selling to the first guy that comes along after the war ended and offer 1.5x purchase price because it looks expensive next the bombed out houses on the street

Value investing is buying a rotting house in a warzone, living in it while the bombs fall, eating rats to survive, then selling the land 10 years later to a Starbucks for a 20x.

$NEO.TO $700M small-cap with secular tailwind and free capacity coming online.

@MicroCapClub @OtterMarket Hard earned return. He got alot of hate for it.

Congrats to @OtterMarket on $SENEA +154% in two years 🚀💪🚀

@RihardJarc Old-economy enterprises are going to be super wary of data privacy. I cant see GOOG, META or xAI be popular options. My gueas whoever is partnering with MSFT will win in enterprises that are already on the MSFT stack.

It feels like OpenAI, for the first time, has left some room for its competitors to catch up with GPT-5. Additionally, the intense focus on coding may be related to the fact that Anthropic has made significant strides in this area and has been taking market share there. The good thing about OpenAI is that they have the ChatGPT brand, which, for the consumer market, might be enough (consumers don't really care that much if a model is a few % better than the other model). On the enterprise market, however, competitors like $GOOGL, Anthropic, and xAI, as well as $META, now have the opportunity to become the dominant option with better breakthrough model improvements and performances. We will see over the coming weeks and months how this AI race unfolds, but the race now for the first time feels wide open at this point.

@TomSmith839 Hate to see it

SBC at $TTD still humming along at 56% of OCF Whatever you think the cash flow multiple is, double it (TIKR has it at 30x 2025 OCF (after the 30% drop PM), so that would be 60x OCF ex-SBC)

@ecommerceshares @StanphylCap Target prices are just a 12 month guess. Not necessarily fundamental. While I think that's a cop out and self-reinforcing, it is important to understand that it is not the result of pure valuation. So if earning break thesis that could warrant a significant change.

@StanphylCap BofA downgraded it from $130 to $55. How can a view of the value of a business change so much based on a few numbers being a few percentage points off? And two dozen banks and brokers make their living analysing this...

An over-analysed and widely followed large-cap like $TTD can be down -39% on one single quarterly report yet many still claim that stock markets are efficient.

@Restructuring__ Weddings are a modern status symbol. Great if have the confidence to keep it small and low cost. And important test if you share the same expectations as your spouse or can compromise.

How much are people spending on weddings these days? I heard from a colleague (earning ~$480k) who’s spending $65k on theirs, and that seems absolutely insane to me

Sold $FERG for $NEO.TO. Bit more commodity business than I like but very interesting supply / demand situation play on Ex-China neodymium magnet

Portfolio H2/25. +1%YTD, +12%LTM $KD $HAYPP.ST $META $EVO.ST $GOOG $AMZN $PLX.PA $BUR.L $IDT $TFF.PA $FERG Sold: $HRI $MRO.L

@MikeFritzell - Friendly middlemen - Distributors - Scale-benefit shared - Toll roads - Multi-sided Matching platforms - Marketplaces without multi-tenanting - Consumable model (Razor/Razor-blade)

Business models I like: - Dual-till airports - Monopoly sea ports - Stock exchanges - Enterprise SaaS - Addictive consumer products - Medical equipment - Unregulated telecom towers - Two-sided matching platforms - App stores What am I missing?

@stonkmetal Question is also in their reasearch segment. Reports are being commoditized unless they have relevant proprietary data.

@HrtmnMax My first thought was medium term winner (leading position in IT research should help companies implement AI solutions), but long-term headwinds. Not so sure anymore and I'll put more research into this.

Very exciting price action on $IT. Gartner is down 30%, getting demolished today. I looked at the opportunity a few weeks ago and am looking to write a deep dive on it. I highlighted risks and want to find out if they are valid or if this is an opportunity. Stay tuned!