Negative Alpha

1.4K posts

Negative Alpha

Negative Alpha

@NegativeAlp

Current L/S Analyst and Head of Macro - in the arena, trying things. Former Murray Bro. Not investment advice, just vibes. #RIPBroJs

NYC Se unió Kasım 2021
1.1K Siguiendo4.7K Seguidores
Negative Alpha
Negative Alpha@NegativeAlp·
@ShanuMathew93 Their GW addition numbers are painfully low, that is the issue with all of these cycle calls - demand estimates are not believable IMO
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Shanu Mathew
Shanu Mathew@ShanuMathew93·
What happens, next? Shortage --> Prices increase --> Capacity additions --> Prices decrease. BTM is all the rage and the equipment companies have had incredible bids YTD and last 1-2 years. Wonder what people are underwriting in terms of i) DC demand ii) pricing for OEMs. Berstein: "Between 2024 and 2030, manufacturers of large reciprocating engines, industrial gas & aeroderivative turbines and fuel cells are collectively increasing manufacturing capacity by ~110 GW to ~195 GW. These OEMs are responding to growing demand for prime and standby power generation from data centers. Putting the scale of the expansion into context, the incremental manufacturing capacity alone represents 25% of the entire US power supply and 14x and 8x the annual data center capacity added in the US and worldwide, respectively."
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Admiral Waterworld
Admiral Waterworld@WaterworldCapi1·
The IPPs have underperformed the semis space too much here imo. If semis are going to have this much demand power prices have to go up dramatically. $TLN at a double digit FCF yield.
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Negative Alpha
Negative Alpha@NegativeAlp·
What in the world is going on here...
Negative Alpha tweet media
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Shanu Mathew
Shanu Mathew@ShanuMathew93·
Notes from broker conversation with one of the largest global EPCs/developers on hyperscaler power buildout: -Hyperscaler preferences described as schizophrenic, but speed to market dominates every decision. Hybrid is the emerging default: grid as primary path with bridge gen (fuel cells + recips) deployed ahead of it. Example cited: 3 GW site with grid power not landing until 2032, DC construction ready 3-4 years earlier. -Fuel cells getting real traction on 6-month delivery and 8-10 months to online, capitalizing on the no-new-CCGT-until-2030 window. Open questions -capex/opex (companies too optimistic about declining costs), 16-hour ramp to full load, variability under sustained load, equipment life and replacement cost. -Recips deploying in many GWs as prime power, modular and EPC-light, but worse economics and very short maintenance cycles (large site framed as ~1000 car engines needing constant service). Stranded asset risk once interconnection queues clear, noting only ~10% backup power needed once on grid. -CCGTs remain the terminal-state answer. EPC/labor is the binding constraint on the entire buildout. Storage flagged as a strong adjacent play given multiple DC use cases.
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Negative Alpha
Negative Alpha@NegativeAlp·
I will vibe code an app that enables delivery from this store to anyplace in NYC for $5.
Novara Media@novaramedia

New York City mayor Zohran Mamdani has announced the location of the city’s first publicly owned supermarket, marking a step towards delivering on his pledge to bring down the cost of food. The city will spend $30m (£22.3m) on the store, which is due to open next year at a marketplace in East Harlem, Mamdani announced on Sunday during an address to mark his first 100 days in office. He wants to open five of the stores - one for each of the city’s boroughs - before the end of his first term in 2029. They will operate without paying rent or taxes and pass those savings onto shoppers. During his address, Mamdani rebutted neoliberal arguments about the effectiveness of publicly owned businesses. "Some will insist that city-owned businesses do not work, that government cannot keep up with corporations," he said. "My answer to them is simple: I look forward to the competition. May the most affordable grocery store win." Mamdani has been quick to deliver on several of his major campaign pledges – many of them aimed at bringing down the cost of living – since taking office on 1 January. He announced the introduction of a free childcare scheme, intervened on behalf of tenants living in poor conditions and secured millions of dollars of restitution for workers. Former presidential candidate Bernie Sanders made a surprise appearance at Mamdani’s address. "I know that the mayor has been criticised and some say this is a radical idea," he told the crowd. "I'll tell you what is a radical idea: Giving tax breaks to billionaires. Throwing people off health care. That's radical. What's radical is starting a terrible war. That's radical. But providing affordable food to working families? That's not radical, it's exactly the right thing to do."

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RiverRoadPartners
RiverRoadPartners@partners_road·
@NegativeAlp Awww….bet you thought you’d bring down the house with an “oldie but goodie.” But you have no views, no one cares what you think, your jokes suck. You’re the Nowhere Man the Beatles wrote the song about.
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Negative Alpha
Negative Alpha@NegativeAlp·
This feels like a massive missed opp by $CMG and every local Mexican restaurant. It’s TACO Tuesday, BOGO, get LeBron involved. Pretty disappointed candidly
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prefshares
prefshares@PrefShares·
DC Capacity Bottlenecks Per $MSFT “The key near-term Azure capacity constraint is not finding power off the grid, it’s standing up data centers, from permitting to labor. There is no single component or factor causing build-out constraints, it’s a number of things and our supply chain team is optimizing all the time. We don’t have an issue getting chips, it is not the silicon that we are short. Sometimes Satya says power is the constraint but what he means is space and the shell not the electricity.”
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Negative Alpha
Negative Alpha@NegativeAlp·
You guys remember when you'd just walk around and people would start planking. That was chill - miss that.
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Negative Alpha
Negative Alpha@NegativeAlp·
Honestly, achieving AGI isn’t going to be that hard considering yall are a bunch of idiots
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Negative Alpha
Negative Alpha@NegativeAlp·
If my PM tells me to "vibe code some alpha" one more time i'm going to jump
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