prefshares
6.6K posts
Some things are exactly as good as they seem and there’s no need to twist yourself into knots on it. Market figured it out on $TDG in last couple of years. In process of figuring it out on $TSM. And have a ways to go on $ASML but people will get there eventually as inevitably you run out of bear theses and even staunchest of bears get tired of being wrong after long enough period of time.
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Honestly, not impossible he was granted confidential treatment by the SEC.
Negligible Capital@negligible_cap
Leopold has some explaining to do
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Large $GOOG buy at $BRK as Buffett sees scaling laws continuing to hold and thinks the market misunderstands what long-term inference market share will look like between merchant & custom silicon, and has perennially underestimated the advantages of 3D Torus mesh networking.
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Charter / Comcast constantly talk about how adds are suppressed due to the low move environment. But if they are losing share, doesn't a low move environment help them?
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@viggy_krishnan @rev_cap @Beutty @marc_slans @evrgn11112231 Ads are one of the purest forms of price discrimination. The market itself sets the price that competes down product level gross margins to a point where the seller earns their cost of capital & Amazon keeps the rest.
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@evrgn11112231 @At50w50882 @rev_cap @viggy_krishnan A lot of older PMs still don’t fully grasp that IG and FB are the entertainment platforms of our time (similar to Cable TV before them) and that the only thing that can derail them is a platform/paradigm shift (why Zuck spends so much investing there).
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@At50w50882 @PrefShares @rev_cap @viggy_krishnan I think he should buy $META, and think one day he very well may but not sure when he’ll get there.
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@rev_cap @Beutty @viggy_krishnan @marc_slans @evrgn11112231 agreed on the core nature of the retail business
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@rev_cap @Beutty @viggy_krishnan @marc_slans @evrgn11112231 so what you’re saying is Amazon has 20 more years?
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@Beutty @rev_cap @viggy_krishnan @marc_slans @evrgn11112231 yeah I’m talking to @rev_cap (Amazon bear)
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@Beutty @rev_cap @viggy_krishnan @marc_slans @evrgn11112231 parcel companies don’t do 30% ROICs while underearning
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@SouthernValue95 Enterprise token optimization similar to finops in 2023 hurts the first derivative of growth
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1999 but there’s fundamental earnings support for stocks moving the most violently (memory) and funding is coming from companies with $1Tn in aggregate EBITDA, no starting net debt and credit ratings above the U.S. Govt.
To me the biggest risk is somehow OAI / xAI / Ant lose access to infinite money glitch before getting to self-funded status. But no idea what would cause that.
Helene Meisler@Chartfest1
If you weren't trading in 1999-2000, then you're in luck. This is what it was like. Now you can experience it.
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This is the way. Literally every export I do now is as HTML.
Thariq@trq212
HTML is the new markdown. I've stopped writing markdown files for almost everything and switched to using Claude Code to generate HTML for me. This is why.
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@rev_cap @viggy_krishnan but will be funny if M365 commercial ARPU starts growing mid-teens and total revenue low-20s on E7 and Cowork upgrades.
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@rev_cap @viggy_krishnan could argue that’s a by-product of the style — will look dumb when moat in question and you punt but half the time it’s CHTR half the time it’s GOOG, just rotate the capital into sure things
however, that’s a philosophy that doesn’t lend itself well to investing in tech at all
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The game theory dictates that Gemini models will end up on AWS & Azure.
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