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the most bullish thing in the entire $QS Q1 investor letter wasn't a battery metric. it was a customer saying "we tested you against the competition and want to keep going."
ir.quantumscape.com/static-files/6…
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Highly Regarded Star 🪨
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Highly Regarded Star 🪨
@SpongeQuant
Starfish on @X | NYC M&A | $RDDT $BABA $QS Long strong businesses, occasionally buy degenerate calls. Building a Fintwit win-rate tracker with unemployed SWEs
Public Win-Rate Tracker 👉 Se unió Ocak 2023
50 Siguiendo122 Seguidores
DID YOU LISTEN ANON?
Reuters: New Sivers x GFS strategic collaboration.
$SIVE has now announced its lasers will be integrated into reference designs built on Globalfoundries Silicon Photonics Platform.
For pluggable optical transcivers, CPO, and SiPH.
This is fundamentally the most groundbreaking news for Sivers in history.
As Broadcom, Nvidia, Marvell, AMD, and anyone who goes through GFS silicon photonics has Sivers embedded as a default laser route.
I personally think this news alone should easily 2x or 3x Sivers market cap over the medium term, given how fundamental this is to their revenue.
To have Sivers be the standard laser route for the many hyperscalers that use the world's leading photonics foundry.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
The most consequential event of an entire company’s history. Got released today with a photonics player. Making them the functional standard laser for CPO, Pluggables, and SiPH. For companies like $NVDA, $AVGO, $AMD, to $MRVL using the foundry. Does anyone know the name?
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$MRVL current MC is 200B
Marc C Hua@marc_hua
$MRVL Jensen just said Marvell will be the next trillion dollar company
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Technical update on $RDDT $BABA $QS:
$RDDT I am all out of my 8/21 calls todays and only holding LT commons that I plan on diamond handing. Would love to see a retest of 173-163 to load up and target the 205-210 gap. Very nice win here.
$BABA same plan as last week. Riding this until we weekly close below 123. Would really like to see us close above 140 this month, otherwise may look to roll contracts to a further expiration. Currently holding 9/18 contracts that are down ~20%.
$QS initiated commons and 2028 leaps at ~$9 today. Will look to load between 9.4 and 6.8. Targeting previous highs at 19, weekly close below 6.8 and i'm out.
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@cyberprince_rwo bro you have green candle addiction
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$AAOI 6/5 200C at 5.5
lottos, this jawn moves 40 dollars a week and this week its going up
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@EquityBrian that said a 5% stake in CXMT wont do very much to move $BABA MC. still a nice too have
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@EquityBrian $BABA is the unquestionable long if you are bullish on China AI
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Alibaba owns roughly ~5% of CXMT.
Just another small reminder $BABA has more exposure to China’s AI/semi stack than people probably realize…
Yicai 第一财经@yicaichina
Chipmaker CXMT Is Cleared for Chinese Mainland's Biggest IPO in Four Years buff.ly/A6EAeUu
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@cyberprince_rwo @PracticalIF its looking like a good Sunday night for you young prince $ABCL
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$ABCL in hindsight it was obvious.
with foresight it's still obvious.
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@CharlesLis63548 i dont know where youre getting these numbers from but i like what youre saying good sir
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@SpongeQuant Once QS is rocking and rolling, they will be raking in money left and right. Once the OEMs reveal themselves, it'll moat at around 100. But it can become a $500-1000 around 2029-2032. Just do the math on licensing model for mobile device batteries alone.
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Spent some time trying to understand the product behind $QS. i'm definitely better off than i was 24 hours ago, but battery chemistry quickly turns into ceramic separators, lithium-metal interfaces, dendrite formation, coulombic efficiency, and a bunch of phd-level science.
not going to pretend i'm a battery expert (im a degen finance bro starfish who trades based on vibez) and too be honestly im not sure it increased time to understand it would help in my conviction.
i'll keep investing based on the qualitative and quantitative reasons the company is compelling. that's the part (believe) i actually understand
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thanks for the comment
im still not quite technical enough to confidently remain bullish based on their proprietary technology (patents) frankly 90% of their cap table isnt either. and thats ok.
im pretty close to numbers since thats much more accessible / digestible but its very difficult to value based on it since my bull case is that $QS is a essentially trading as a pre revenue company
recent hires and hiring is the paints the clearest picture at the moment
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@SpongeQuant I dont want to divert too much from your narrative but with tech stuff, you need to look to see if they have patents and relevance to their goal, are there lots of smart engineers, scientists etc, but also the finance side (cash position).
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@aleabitoreddit CPO rhymes with Potato. i think hes telling us to long potato futures
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At $NVDA GTC/Computex in Taipei:
I think we’ll hear about the next AI bottleneck.
That’s owned by a .6 P/B potato farming company in Japan, with a 180 year history.
Their owner cooks those potatoes in night markets for 160 yen a piece.
But that same potato farming equipment used to grow potatoes with optimal sunlight.
Is now required for optical alignment requirements for CPO.
And their unique cooking technique is mandatory to address thermal requirements for Rubin.
Can anyone guess?
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@aleabitoreddit at this point im more interested in what theses havent gone 100% lol
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@aleabitoreddit Seems like the name of the game is until MAG7 shows signs of slowing capex long all AI stonkers
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Can’t believe $ARM went straight from $134 to $354 when I took positions.
The ~$15B annual revenue coming from these cool name AI CPUs seemed a bit insane at the time.
At Computex, looks like $NVDA is unveiling new ARM based processors too.
Counterpoint them shows them dominating AI ASIC servers by 2029, projections which is crazy…
GPU:CPU ratios are requiring more and more CPUs.
Seems like they have everything going for them?
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Bullish on $ARM, given the new bottleneck shifting back to CPUs. MS shows stuff like Orchestration/RAG requiring CPUs. But I'm predicting parts of localized inference to be handled by CPUs more and more... as models like Gemma get lightweight in the future. Not every robot needs to be able to solve the mysteries of the universe. Data centers will need an astronomical amount of traditional CPU compute (AWS Graviton, $GOOGL Axion, and $MSFT Cobalt), which are all ARM based. $META + OpenAI are also buyers of the AGI CPU. And AI will flow down to edge. $15B annual revenue target.. Starting to look reasonable?
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@Defiantclient2 still a bit technical for me but very helpful summary. thanks kevin
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@SpongeQuant Here’s my one post summary on $QS to help you out
Kevin Chen@Defiantclient2
$QS: My one post summary of @QuantumScapeCo 👇 PROVEN TECHNOLOGY + Two major innovations: anodeless architecture (at manufacturing) and proprietary solid ceramic separator + Cathode agnostic + The only NO-COMPROMISE solid state battery solution which makes no sacrifices on the 5 main factors of battery design: Energy, Fast Charge, Life, Safety, and Cost + QSE-5: ~5 Ah cell with energy density 844 Wh/L capable of <15-min fast charge (10 to 80% State of Charge) + A0 Sample tested by Volkswagen's PowerCo for >95% energy retention at >1,000 full cycle equivalents + Safety: Solid-state ceramic separator is nonflammable and noncombustible + Cost (at scale): Eliminates anode host material and related manufacturing costs. This removes dependency on China-dominated graphite anode supply chain. + Operates at low pressure of <3.4 atm. No external pressure system required! + Implemented QSE-5 battery cells into a modified Ducati V21L race motorcycle in September 2025 + Cobra process shrunk ceramic baking process from many hours down to several minutes + Eagle Line, QS's pilot production line, has begun producing initial volumes of QSE-5 cells + 18-month cycles expected for new iterations of technology PARTNERSHIPS + Non-exclusive licensing agreement for up to 85 GWh with Volkswagen Group's battery subsidiary: PowerCo, including $130M of milestone payments + $130M of royalty prepayments + Joint Development Agreements with 2x Top 10 (by revenue) Global Automotive OEMs + Successfully completed technology evaluation phase with another Top 10 Global Automotive OEM, which will lead into another JDA + Total 4 out of the Top 10 Global Automotive OEMs will have a JDA or more advanced, with QS + Capital-light licensing agreement is a template for for all JDAs + OEM partners range from Japan, North America, and Europe + Ecosystem Partners: Murata in Japan and Corning in the US. Collaborations to pursue high-volume manufacturing of ceramic separators for QS’s solid-state battery technology + Agreements with other automotive OEMs: leading OEMs by global revenue, established global luxury OEM, premium performance OEM, and pure-play EV OEM + Agreements in other sectors: consumer electronics, stationary storage NON-EV APPLICATIONS + Corning: Consumer electronics, medical devices, military applications, and grid storage applications + AI data centers are transitioning to 800V DC designs and adopting power systems architecture and technology from the EV industry. A "natural fit for our no-compromise solid state battery". + Defense sector: "In addition, we have seen strong customer interest in our battery technology from global players in the military, aerospace and government sectors. Our battery technology unlocks step-change improvements to both energy density and power simultaneously; combined with the superior safety of our solid-state design, this is a highly attractive combination for these advanced applications. Our anode-free architecture also has supply-chain benefits. Conventional lithium-ion batteries require graphite that is almost exclusively sourced from China. In contrast, our battery design is graphite-free, eliminating a major pain point for defense applications." CASH/LIQUIDITY + Ended Q1 2026 with $904.7M + Cash runway plus expected customer billings are anticipated to be sufficient to the end of 2029 2026 ROADMAP + Demonstrate scalable production with the Eagle Line + Advance automotive commercialization + Expand into new high-value markets + Go beyond QSE-5
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@AdamMancini4 But then how do I feed my green candle addiction
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The biggest game changer for me was realizing the most powerful edge is sitting on hands. Its the unplanned, impulse trades that don't correlate to any setup that generate losses. I plan exactly where I am going to enter & have 1 setup that I look for there. Otherwise, no trading
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I have conviction but I dont plan to be a $BABA bag holder.
Set a standard for when you sell. If we go below / above X price, cut losses / take profits. Stick to the plan. For be thats $BABA at 123, if it dips below amd reclaims that price… you can always come back in.
Taking a loss stings but ill never get married to a single ticker when there’s and infinite number of opportunities everyday.
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@AgoraAlerts @StockSavvyShay I’m watching BABA close. I agree but man it’s been hard to watch everything else go during the wait.
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MY 3 FAVORITE STOCK OPPORTUNITIES RIGHT NOW
1. $MELI | MercadoLibre
MercadoLibre is the cleanest example of a stock that looks broken because the market wanted near-term EBIT while the business is clearly on fire underneath. Revenue grew 49% YoY to $8.8B, commerce grew 47%, fintech grew 51%, GMV grew 42% and Brazil items sold accelerated 56% yet the stock sold off because margins compressed as management chose to reinvest into free shipping, logistics, credit cards, 1P commerce and marketing instead of managing the quarter for the market.
I think the market is trying to paint MercadoLibre as this mature retailer trying to squeeze out another 50 bps of margin but really it's still building the $AMZN + $PYPL + $XYZ logistics layer for LatAm in a region where e-commerce, digital payments, credit, ads and primary banking adoption are still years behind the U.S.
2. $SOFI | SoFi
SoFi is a stock that looks broken because the market wanted the usual beat-and-raise while the business still delivered numbers that most fintechs would kill for. Revenue grew 41% YoY to $1.1B, EBITDA grew 62%, members grew 35% to 14.7M and loan originations grew 68% to $12.2B but the stock sold off because management only reiterated guidance, rate cut expectations have disappeared and the Tech Platform (Galileo) segment remains weak from the Chime offboarding.
My thesis is that SoFi is still building the all-in-one digital finance platform for the next generation. The core flywheel is intact because members are growing, deposits are scaling, lending demand remains strong and ~45% of new products are coming from existing members.
3. $META | Meta Platforms
Meta is a stock the market keeps treating like an AI capex problem while the actual business is becoming one of the clearest AI monetization engines in the world. Revenue grew 33% YoY to $56B, ad impressions grew 19%, ad pricing grew 12% and Q2 guidance came in stronger than expected but the stock sold off because Meta raised capex guidance by $10B and market immediately went back to the fear that Zuckerberg is overspending before the payoff shows up.
I think the payoff is already showing up since AI is improving Reels ranking, video engagement, ad targeting, conversion quality, business messaging and creative performance across Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Reels. Meta is using AI to make the highest-margin advertising machine on the internet more relevant, more efficient and more valuable.
The common thread across all three is that the market is punishing near-term discomfort while the underlying businesses are getting stronger which is the exact kind of mismatch I like buying.
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