Matteo86

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Matteo86

Matteo86

@_Matteo86_

🤖🧠⛏️₿⚡️🔋

Se unió Mart 2024
81 Siguiendo3 Seguidores
Matteo86
Matteo86@_Matteo86_·
@Umbisam What if they already had a pre-agreement with a big player, which they cannot yet reveal, but which is required in the agreement to make a large investment (ATM) by $IREN?
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investing
investing@DollarCostAvg·
SERIOUS question: 🙋 Which would you choose for a 10-year horizon — steady compounding with QQQ, or higher-risk, higher-> reward mid caps? You have $1.7M invested in 3,000 shares of QQQ. Option 1 — >Stay in $QQQ Hold for 10 years and let it compound. Projected outcome: ~$5M–$7M Option 2 — >Switch to mid-cap stocks Like $IREN $CIFR $NVDA etc $META $MSFT Move the full $1.7M into mid caps. Projected outcome: •Upside: ~$10M+ •Downside: major losses (possibly significant capital destruction) Which option you are picking? 👇
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The Analyst
The Analyst@MMatters22596·
My top 3 stocks to own by sector: Health - $HIMS - $NVO - $MRNA Robotics - $XPEV - $KRKNF | $PNG - $PATH Insurtech - $PLMR - $OSCR - $LMND AI Infra - $NBIS - $CRDO - $AXTI Fintech - $SOFI - $DLO - $HOOD Software - $RBRK - $ZETA - $META Energy - $FLNC - $EOSE - $BE Hardware - $AMD - $TSM - $ASML Quantum computing - $QBTS - $IONQ What needs to be added?
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BitcoinAIGuy
BitcoinAIGuy@BitcoinAIGuy·
am I shadow banned? can you see this?
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Jim Liu
Jim Liu@jiahanjimliu·
$IREN: +7% Moving with the Power AI Infra Basket Green day for IREN, but larger picture, it's moving with the rest of the Power AI Infra with $EOSE up 7%, $WULF, $CIFR both up 14%. I suspect this sector is partially pre-pricing in higher GPU guidance from $NVDA tomorrow which directly translate to power needs. Good but not great NVDA guidance will be a small boost to this sector. Great NVDA guidance can start a longer run. Hoping NVDA guidance is at least good. Ran IREN options buys by @MarkosAAIG today and he pointed out that "option volume is 50% of average 30 day volume" which is not too out of ordinary volatility.
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Small Cap Snipa
Small Cap Snipa@SmallCapSnipa·
🚨OPENAI STARGATE HAS STALLED: OpenAI’s $500B flagship mega-data center, Stargate, has stalled. One year later, there is still no JV staff or buildouts The company is reportedly scrambling for computing power elsewhere too keep up with their massive AI inference demands
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Chris Ray
Chris Ray@itschrisray·
If you had to condense your portfolio down to just 3 stocks, which would you choose? Why do you have others besides these 3 right now?
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Matteo86
Matteo86@_Matteo86_·
@Umbisam Grazie, disponibilissimo come sempre 🫶 .. e anche Grok conferma 👇
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𝒰𝓂𝒷𝒾𝓈𝒶𝓂
ciao Matteo … in effetti ho anche WXYZ … ma ho molte piu SATS perche è piu proxy (circa 65%~70% vs 45%~50% nelle mie stime) e, come giustamente osservavi, è a sconto (non a premio) o molto piu a sconto (se entrambe a sconto … dipende da quanto valutiamo spacex oggi) … questo è funzione di FCC … ma io assumo che il rischio FCC sia di fatto immateriale (1%~5%), solo formale … per questo la preferisco il mercato invece prezza il rischio FCC come fosse un terno al lotto, 50/50, dimenticando tutte le premesse, le opinioni già espresse, la maggioranza Reps in commissione.
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investing@DollarCostAvg·
@_Matteo86_ 🤔 sure. Holding 12k shares am bear. Make it make sense bud
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investing@DollarCostAvg·
$IREN I see next week above $69 with AI mag 7 deal ✅ Your welcome !!
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BitcoinAIGuy
BitcoinAIGuy@BitcoinAIGuy·
Just got the call. It’s go time. $100 soon.
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ChinoAleman
ChinoAleman@chinoalemano·
🎵 $IREN - Soon™ (When Deal?) 🎵 Follow these accounts for IREN insights: @FransBakker9812 (X Subscription) @Agrippa_Inv (Substack) @jiahanjimliu (Github App) All trademarks and intellectual property are owned by IREN. This is a fan composition inspired by IREN. NFA.
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Jim Liu
Jim Liu@jiahanjimliu·
$IREN: Financial Model Version 1.2.3 jiahanliu.github.io/IREN-Community/ Changelog: 1. Change Payback Period to Years of Positive Cashflow out of 20 years 2. Added 20YR-Cashflow/MW Metric 3. Added Oklahoma Site as recommended by @FransBakker9812. 4. Gave year on each scenario indicating price of stock near end of that year. 5. Added 3.2m/MW DC Retrofit Capex for Canada Sites The addition of these two metrics are significant because they are easy to understand metrics regarding cashflow and how an 17% increase in the topline dramatically changes the cashflow picture. Positive Cashflow out of 20 years Previously, payback period only captures ~5 year dynamics. Positive Cashflow out of 20 years captures the cashflow over the course of four 5-year contracts with the important benefit being reusability of the DC. We calculate this by having (EBTIDA - Cost of DC,GPU,Interest) / EBTIDA * 20. For example if EBITDA was 20B and cost was everything was 10B, then you would have (20-10)/20*20 = 10 years which means 10 out of 20 years would be positive cashflow. As we can Prince George has 9.9/20 years of positive cashflows because IREN paid for 25% of the GPUs and the cost is already accounted for by previous cash-in-hand or dilution. The rest is leased through Dell with interest being built into lease costs. This is a 49.5% cashflow margin. Without having any GPUs paid off, Mackenzie + Canal Flats has 6.6/20 years of positive cashflow. This is pretty good because it's still a 33% cashflow margin which accounts for all depreciation. For reference, ORCL has a 35-40% margin for bare metal GPUs but they pay colocation. H1-4 has 2.4/20 years of positive cashflow. @RealJimChanos has stated that H1-4 is negative cashflow over 5 years but this is positive over 20 years if we resign contracts at the same economics. This is a 12% cashflow margin which is low but in H5-10 you will see how a 17% higher topline dramatically improves cashflow. H5-10 has 5.6/20 years of positive cashflow with the difference being a 17% higher topline on the unit economics. $ORCL is charging 37% higher topline so 17% number is reasonable. This would give a 28% cashflow margin. A theoretical colocation at SW 2 at 1.83m/MW would give a 11.8/20 years of positive cashflow. This seems great but it disregards the absolute magnitude of the cashflows. Colocation reduces risk because it's so cashflow friendly but the absolutely magnitude of cashflow is not so high. If you had a limited amount of MW but could borrow money on capital markets, would you invest 1B at 50% return or 20B at 10% return? This brings us to our next metric 20YR-Cashflow/MW. 20YR-Cashflow/MW Even though a theoretical Sweetwater 2 Colo is cashflow friendly, it's 20YR-Cashflow/MW is 21.6m/MW. Compare this to H1-4 which is getting 19.38m/MW assuming 0% GPU residual value. However if you give 5% GPU residual value then 20YR-Cashflow/MW becomes 25.18m/MW and at 10% GPU residual value 30.98m/MW. The real big change for 20YR-Cashflow/MW comes if IREN negotiates a higher topline. With 17% higher topline but 0% GPU residual value, 20YR-Cashflow/MW becomes 67.22m/MW. When power is limited, IREN has chosen to go with more capex intensive route of IaaS over colocation because 20 year cashflow is stronger. Default Price Targets These price targets are based on defaults however everybody needs to do their own diligence so all the model parameters are modifiable through the web app. 2025: For Canada + H1-4 the share price is modeled to be $75.02. We saw this at the local peak until the market discounted H1-4 as bad economics so we got near the price target for just Canada of $48. 2026: With 200MW of H5-8 being built and not full H5-10 and only 200MW IT of SW1 built ,we arrive at $155.68 share price. No residual GPU value. 2027: We have a conservative projection labeled Jim 2027 of $220.54 and an more optimistic projection where Vera Rubins have better margins for IREN called Dulce 2027 for $336.77. I think there's a good chance much of the benefits of Vera Rubins are increase margins for Nvidia and the end customer and not the cloud, hence why I lean closer with the Jim 2027 projection of $220. I do give a P/E of 30 but if we get more sites as @FransBakker9812 has been researching, it's reasonable to raise the P/E back to 40.
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Money Qubit
Money Qubit@moneyqubit·
Data Center Mega Cycle Is Heating Up : AI + cloud demand is driving record builds worldwide, with multi-billion-dollar projects popping up across the US and Europe. But the real bottleneck is no longer land or capital, it’s power. Grid connection delays now stretch up to a decade in some regions. Governments are rethinking tax breaks, communities are pushing back on water and energy use, and Big Tech is being forced to pay the true cost of electricity. Bottom line: Data centers are the new oil fields, and power access is the new moat. $IREN $NBIS
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YodaStocks
YodaStocks@YodaStockInvest·
What is the bigger MOAT? $NBIS: software $IREN: land+power I believe it’s best to bet on both to capture DataCenter exposure. I own around equal positions in both stocks.
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