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The foundry industry hit a record $48.8B in 1Q26, +32% y/y and +3% q/q in seasonally soft Q1, marking the 9th consecutive quarter of y/y growth. 2Q26E tracks to $54.7B (+29% y/y, +12% q/q), with utilization climbing broadly across foundries. TSMC concentration kept widening. 95%+ of incremental q/q revenue, 92% of industry gross profit pool, and 73.6% revenue share (+213 bps q/q, +472 bps y/y), the highest concentration on record. Ex-TSMC grew +12% y/y in 1Q26. (1/6) 🧵

> be Leopold > german kid, both parents doctors > parents meet because the wall comes down > enroll Columbia at 15, valedictorian at 19 > write an existential-risk paper as a teenager > Tyler Cowen sees it, sends you a check > Oxford Global Priorities Institute > econ growth research before you can legally drink stateside > SBF Future Fund (pre-rug) > meet your fiancée there > she becomes chief of staff to Dario Amodei > her: Anthropic you: OpenAI > dinner_table_NDA.txt > join Superalignment with Ilya > write memo to the board: China will steal the weights > get fired sixty days later > they call it a leak you call it retaliation lol > 2 months later drop a 165-page essay > "AGI by 2027" > "trillion dollar clusters" > "beat China or get cooked" > ivanka_quote_tweets_it.png > a few hundred people in SF actually get it > you are one of them > raise from the Collison brothers, Nat Friedman, Daniel Gross > open Situational Awareness LP > CIO at 22 > not buying NVDA buying the electricity that powers god > bloom_energy.csv > the optics nobody charts > bitcoin miners pivoting to AI hosting > $225M to $5B in twelve months > 13F drops this morning > $13.67B disclosed, 42 positions > $7.46B in fresh puts on every semi on earth > $SMH $NVDA $AMD $AVGO $ORCL $MU $TSM $ASML $INTC > the timeline loses its mind > "Leopold called the top" > retail copy-trades the PDF > semis open red > notional is not delta > a 5-delta crash put prints at full face value > outright shorts do not print at all > the filing is from March 31 > today is May 19 > seven weeks of trading you cannot see > calendar you cannot delay audience you cannot deny > file_the_truth.zip > trade_the_reaction.exe > meanwhile semis are half the S&P's year > Koreans maxing margin into chips at 60 > the marginal NVIDIA buyer is a retired dentist in Busan > already the AI prophet hedge fund chad > the_engagement_ring_is_an_H100.gif